I just love this post-2013 date. It so happens that the single largest longitudinal study on gender dysphoric children was published in 2013. By the guys who pioneered hormone treatments for transgender patients. These are not anti-trans activists or transphobic bigots.
These are the much vaunted experts working in the field. Their study showed a desistance rate of 2 in 3.
Here's a blog refuting criticism of the study aptly named
A Lot of People, Myself Included, Have Been Misreading the Single Biggest Published Study on Childhood Gender Dysphoria Desistance and Persistence
(Worth a read because a certain link plopping poster will almost certainly make the exact criticism this article addresses.)
And here's what the writer says about desistance:
"WPATH and the American Psychological Association and the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration and the Endocrine Society all recognize that desistance occurs, and I have never spoken with a clinician who believes it to be a full-stop myth. There is good reason for this expert consensus."
So I checked the link to the Endocrine Society because our link plopper heralded them as the absolute be-all-and-end-all of transgender experts in an earlier thread. And here is what their updated guidance, published in 2017, states on desistance in children:
"With current knowledge, we cannot predict the psychosexual outcome for any specific child. Prospective follow-up studies show that childhood GD/gender incongruence does not invariably persist into adolescence and adulthood (so-called “desisters”). Combining all outcome studies to date, the GD/gender incongruence of a minority of prepubertal children appears to persist in adolescence (20, 40). In adolescence, a significant number of these desisters identify as homosexual or bisexual.
It may be that children who only showed some gender nonconforming characteristics have been included in the follow-up studies, because the DSM-IV text revision criteria for a diagnosis were rather broad.
However, the persistence of GD/gender incongruence into adolescence is more likely if it had been extreme in childhood (41, 42). With the newer, stricter criteria of the DSM-5 (Table 2), persistence rates may well be different in future studies."
And the reason they say may is quite simple. Previous studies have been analysed in retrospect by applying the new, stricter criteria to the children taking part. The result was the same - of those that met the stricter criteria again only a minority persisted.