I am trying to quantify the size of the risk and then look at practical, cost-effective measures which would mitigate for that risk in a proportionate way.
Looking at the estimate provided by a pp, we could have 1,575 TW in the NHS today.
Of this number, how many do we think are in obstetrics and gynaecology? No idea but let's say 25% or for the sake of argument.
So now we're talking, about 400.
Of these 400, how many would we estimate to be "trustworthy" and willing to accept that (given the very intimate nature of the work they do), would accept that their claim to be a woman is not appropriate in a gynaecological situation. Let's say at a conservative estimate that only half can be trusted not to lie about their birth sex.
So we have 200 TW in the NHS who would willfully attempt to act in an unethical manner and abuse their position and training to attempt to assault women.
Of that 200 - how many would be known to their colleagues, friends, others in the community that "Jane" was once "John". From the earlier debate here, this seems pretty obvious to most onlookers so let's say 75% would be snared before they could get close to assaulting a woman.
So that leaves 50 people we need to really worry about. Fifty current NHS TW HCPs who are
a) Completely unethical
b) Utterly convincing
Please feel free to redo my maths with alternative assumptions.
Do you think the material risk might be bigger or smaller?