Snow warnings

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Finally, the weather seems to have made up its mind as to where the snow will ^probably* fall today. For England Wales, in the warning areas I would expect a pretty slushy mix in general.

met office advisories

Yorkshire also ought to be aware overnight.

Badkitten do you think any snow possible for east midlands on monday ?

I think there is a decent possibility laughalot. I don't think that models have really pinned down how sunday into monday will evolve yet so things may well change.

Im a real saddo i know lol

not at all

We're having a really good snow 'shower' (more like blizzard!) at the moment, only been going a few minutes and settling already.

To quote mankyscots husband, the flakes are the size of tennis balls!

Can I ask what a gfs is?

GFS is a computer weather model that is run 4 times a day. There are lots of other predictive models. They are run by different organisations and different countries. Some are designed to look at the short term, some are more medium term predictions.

I like the GFS mostly because it gives lots of different predictive charts see here and extends to a decent time frame.

Doesn't mean it is necc accurate in that time frame though! To see how accurate it is likely to be I look at something called the ensembles. It is a collection of gfs models, all run at the same time, each with slightly different starting points. If the ensembles are close together it means that the prediction should be reasonably accurate.

Often all the different predictive models show wildly different results even just a couple of days in advance. some tend to be more accurate than others. For instance I think that this winter the UKMO has actually been quite good.

When I have proper time to allow a decent look I look at several different models to see how well they collaborate.

Cool Petunia
Has been sunny spells this afternoon and actually been pottering about in the garden.

Global Forecast System.
There's a bit of information here and you can have a play with the various charts (I've only just found this site this afternoon and been having a play too!)

What OYBBK said!

We've had a lot of sun today and a fair bit of snow's melted. Lucky you, being able to get into the garden! I'd do that too but our back garden's like a clay bog at the moment (always gets like that in the winter. Grrrr at clay soil!) I have though had the washing out and it's almost dry- had to get it all in when our 'blizzard' started!
It's brightened up now and the snow's melting, but we've had a good cm on the grass from that shower.

Ooh thank you - it all seems very complicated but I do like that site, petunia.

tis the benefit of having a nice sandy loam

I'd love a sandy loam! No end of digging in sand, grit and applying compost every year makes any difference!

I've got clay soil too,petunia.My garden is a boggy mess atm[It is me,FG,BTW].We didn't get the snowstorm this afternoon,but DH in Leicester at work told me about it.He said it was really bad.

Lots of the forums at the moment are mentioning the Midlands area are good for snow the middle of next week. Have to see how this develops.

(101- I thought you used to be FG but didn't want to make a tit of myself if I asked and got it wrong!)
The clay soil's a real pain. I have my suspicions that its not helped that our house is where the builders had their site office, so it was where all their diggers etc were kept while they were building the rest of the estate. So not just clay soil but compacted soil as well! It's really bad in the back garden but it also extends in a line, under the fences to our neighbours back gardens as well! So they have exactly the same problem!

petunia - am wondering if you are me! We have clay soil too, not to mention the little pond that forms at the bottom of the garden. Have been here nearly ten years, faithfully spiking the lawn, adding sand, composting like mad...

We moved from Shrewsbury where we had a beautiful soil in the long garden of our Victorian terrace to a relatively new-build estate in Worcester with its tiny lump of clay pretending to be a back garden (sob).

Monday and wednesday in particular look horrible next week, heavy rain with snow on the northern edge of the system. Where that snow exactly will be??? MetO are still going for a line north of a line drawn from Thames Estuary to Severn estuary up to and including Yorkshire for Monday.

One of the models (NAE) is going for snow overnight tonight too in many areas in England, even in S.

Mondays Heavy snow advisories have moved further south from where they were.

(leaving me in a tricky position with an 8:30am gp appt that I need to set off at 7:45 for and a potential clash with school closures. argh!)

anyone know what roads are like out wiltshire/salsibury way this evening? dd is coming back from a Guiding event in a minibus. (long way for them to go!!)

(quite pleased to see that my prediction a couple of days ago that the met office warning areas would move south on Mon )

Still shows for the east midlands gosh im sad i love snow.

Well done, OYBBK- the metoffice should take you on!
Everything seems to be changing a lot on all the weather sites very quickly. I love how the forums discuss in minute detail each model run and what weather might be produced! There's talk of 'nowcasting' because things are changing so quickly. When it comes to the metoffice, Leicester is just about covered by a 'Be aware' weather warning for tomorrow but I'm wondering if, judging by the forecast we had on our local news on Friday and looking at the forecasts on other sites, whether we might be covered by a 'Be prepared' one soon.

Petunia what about me in nottingham

Im in leicster in a week and a bits time at the walker stadium for a travel awards night i work for ilkeston co-op travel

laughalot- covered by a 'Be aware' too! I'm not having a lot of faith in the BBC 5 day forecast on their website. It says sleet showers for tomorrow and heavy rain for tomorrow night for us!

(Used to live in Bulwell and was at the dentist in Sherwood last week.
Are you receiving a travel award the week after next?)

Im mansfield, its a annual event all shops go and we dont know until the night who has won a award.