Winter 2025/2026

[GloriaSmud]

We’re a few weeks from the start of meteorological winter on the 1st December but there are already some musings on websites about what the next season might bring….

So here are the thoughts of:

Netweather ~ (Vegemiteandhoneyontoast posted a link to this one on the Autumn thread).....
https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/13184-winter-202526-outlook-what-four-decades-of-weak-la-nina-winters-tell-us

Two from TheWeatherOutlook…..
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weather-news/7632/winter-2025-26-weather-outlook
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weather-news/7672/uk-snow-or-cold-snap-in-november---here-is-what-the-model-data-says

And SevereWeatherEurope (a new one that I haven’t come across before, has some well put-together explanations)….
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2025-2026-outlook-colder-season-forecast-for-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

My thoughts (more gut feeling than anything and based on the weather we’ve been having recently!), is that we’re veering towards a fairly quiet but colder than average winter. I don’t think we’ll have many storms but there’ll be rain at times (which will go some way towards upping the reservoir levels.) I think there’ll be some cold snaps (maybe more at the start of winter), plenty of sunny days and nighttime frosts. Hopefully (for those that like it!), we’ll get some snow and the chances of that will increase if the quiet, settled weather stays and systems from the Atlantic try to move in. Any snow will probably last a day or two rather than the ‘so much snow that the country grinds to a halt,’ sort of thing.

So we’ll see if any of these predictions come true!......

It's almost sunny here. Not quite but a bright sky.

Was lovely up until about 3pm. Real ☀️ 🌞. Then the temperature dropped off fast so I lit the fire.

Our match was supposed to be on but the other side called to say they couldn't field a team so we went to the garden centre instead and I've spent a happy hour in my potting shed planting my new plants.

New rain warning here today. Bring on the bit where it is supposed to stop raining.

I’ve just seen blue sky and sun.
Back to normal tomorrow though, as forecast is saying Mist/Fog for when I get up to go to work.

Had a bit of sun here, and it stayed dry enough to get a load of washing dry on the line. Making the most of any day where a bit of line drying is vaguely feasible. It’s actually felt a bit less rainy than usual this winter in Manchester but I don’t know if that’s just because everywhere else just has more rain and it’s usually us.

I think the last time we didn’t have rain here was 6th Jan.

Netweather's thoughts from yesterday...at last, there are signs of a change later this week....

My thoughts (more gut feeling than anything and based on the weather we’ve been having recently!), is that we’re veering towards a fairly quiet but colder than average winter. I don’t think we’ll have many storms but there’ll be rain at times

Please don't predict the weather again.......

Thanks so much @GloriaSmud for keeping us updated. Let’s hope
that pesky jetstream moves and we get some brighter days ahead. Though I must confess I’m escaping to the Alps so wishing for the sun there.

@Alexandra2001 I hope you’re joking..

@Alexandra2001 ~ it's been a terrible winter in terms of rain (especially for the SW) and when I posted all that, it had been fairly quiet and settled. The cold weather in N. America didn't help as it eventually powered up the jetstream and sent more weather systems our way. This weekend it's looking like we're going to get a cold snap but next week, it's back to being unsettled again but it looks like any systems are a bit more north and not so much in the way of heavy rain, hopefully giving the south and SW a chance to dry out.

@Delatron ~ enjoy your escape! Hopefully there'll be some ☀but also quite a bit of ❄and ⛷!

Thanks @GloriaSmud I would like the perfect combination of sun in the day and snow overnight. I can dream! Nice to escape this gloom though.

I’ll be ready for Spring (optimistically) when I get back!

I have given up looking at the forecast. it’s stressing me out and it’s invariably incorrect here. Sunday said Monday was 95% rain. It didn’t rain at all until 10pm. Today was the same and it stopped at 9 this morning.

I need a couple of weeks of dry, warmish weather so my garden works can be completed but that looks like it’s going to be at least mid March. By mid March last year it was sunny, dry and the start of the most blissful summer ever. Fingers crossed!

You re braver than me, trying to predict the weather...

If i want to know the forecast, i look out the window.... i cannot see how anyone can predict more than a few days hence.

Back in the day, a company i was working for put in the then latest Cray Super computers into the Met Office (when it was in Bracknell) out went the charts, in went technology!
Weather forecasts got worse!

It’s not that forecasts are necessarily worse than in the past, but that people expect more accuracy.
Back when all we had was one weather symbol to cover a whole region and half a day, people got less upset by a rogue shower at some point in the day.
Now we all have instant access to multiple weather metrics for each locality, we feel annoyed that the band of rain that was forecast 20 miles away shifted since we looked at lunchtime.
Add the instability of a warming climate and weather forecasting is never going to be fully accurate no matter how much data exists.

Yep, your last sentence nails it, the weather itself has become very unpredictable.

Add the instability of a warming climate and weather forecasting is never going to be fully accurate no matter how much data exists.

Yes, that about sums up how hard it is to forecast anything. As a complete amateur, I hope I have a decent stab at it but the climate is changing and as Alexandra2001 says, it's become very unpredictable.

For us here in Leicester, it's raining.....again <sigh> It's looking like Saturday will be the day that's decent for everybody, so we'll hold out for that one!

Some weather warnings have been issued for the next few days...

Oh joy

so if it is nice on Saturday we may be trapped indoors waiting for ice or snow to be cleared

I am sat in my garden in the sunshine. Clear blue skies and it is much needed

There was sun!

And now it is chucking it down again. So we are on day 47895890 of consecutive days of rain here.

Actually I think it might only be day 37 but that’s only because the day before had snow.

It’s going to take a hell of a summer to dry this lot out. The turning circle at work was completely submerged and I haven’t ever seen that, we have buckets all over and the children are bundled up with waterproofs!

I just can’t see the end to this.

Once stuff starts growing, you 'll be amazed how quickly it will dry out, most of this rain goes out to sea, which is rather stupid of us, especially farmers, who in the main haven't grasped the fact they can't go on tilling the ground in the autumn, the top soil gets washed away...

The prediction is "Wetter winters, drier, hotter summers..." we should be preserving this water....

We're never surprised by rain in Wales. It's always been wet. Extended periods of sunshine on the other hand and hot weather does take us by surprise.

The snow has disappeared from our forecast and turned to sleet. So, you know, rain....