Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Ok.

Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

I'm curious who these 'experts' are Marne. One thing to note is that the sea temperatures are said to be significantly below average for March (I've not seen the data to back that up) I'm curious as to the effect that will have on our spring and on our weather (if despite that we did have a heat wave, would we end up with interesting weather because of the thermal contrast - unsure, will mull over in the bath)

I've just stacked some cardboard boxes around the back kitchen door to insulate it, it's that cold.

I think if we get a sudden hot spell interesting things will happen in the marine world and we'll also get some very dense coastal fog on hot days. The sea will be freezing until about the end of June.

Ps the experts are the DM!

Actually DH who lectures in oceanography and stuff came home today saying "they" say there's going to be a heatwave. He wasn't sure who they were....

Is the Gulf Steam still ok?

Yes, im not sure who the experts are or who 'they' are. Just repeating what heard on the news earlier, we all know its hard to say what theweather will do in the coming months or even weeks but we can all hope.

The weather we have had in the past year has already caused so much damage, looking at the fields next to us and the farmers have been unable to plant crops (usualy this time of year the rape seed is almost out and the fields are green, all i can see is mud and brown) .

Sea Fog was the only interesting thing I could come up with if we get that sort of temperature differential!

Marne hope is always good and goodness know our farmers and everyone in general need that at the moment.

Linegg, I think it's ok.......

My dear old dad is on one of those western craggy islands and having an even worse time than me. Will he have a warm April, kitten?

nellyjelky totally. When we booked it I envisaged clear crisp days with a bit of warm sun. Daffodils and lambs. Now I think we'll be lucky if we get there! Scrabble and Mr Men DVDs on standby...

Not to start with at least lineegg, who know after!!!

It has been FREEZING here today. Bitterly cold and a biting wind.

Love it :)

(Mad I know)

I remember in the last 10 years, not the actual year, that we had our summer in April and that was it. It might have been the year we had an Indian Summer, but too tired to check my diaries.
Also some recent time ago, I did read that the Gulf Stream is not what it used to be.
At least it was dry today, but didn't get above +1. I'm feeling sorry for the Flora .

ps
and the farmers and lambs born in the snow and frozen to death. Saw it on TV today and shed a tear.

Linerunnyegg - Yes - the Gulf Stream is alive and well and has been keeping the North of Scotland in pleasant weather almost all winter.......

Don't think the weather in Arran (and bits of SW SCotland) represents anything like the rest of Scotland - the snowy bad stuff appears to be amazingly localised.

Sunny yet again North of Inverness......

If the Gulf stream does go pear shaped we are well and truly stuffed....

If you think I am joking about the weather up here - I cycled the 15 miles each way to work (well wrapped up - it isn't warm...) and it really was dry and very pleasant -

Am I right in thinking this will be another year of poor crops and high food prices then?

I was looking at all the frosty cherry blossom pictures and thinking the fruit trees can't have much chance. Is there time for other crops to recover?

On the news earlier, I heard food prices are set to rise because of poor weather TeWiSavesTheDay

Pants.

Come on spring

Food prices will rise and i think they said (today on the news) that fuel prices will rise too , going by whats happening here (with farming) there wont be many crops this year, most of the fields near us have nothing planted in them, they have been poughed and thats it , they are waiting and hoping for good weather so they can plant something.

I also saw the sheep being dug out on the news today, so sad .

Marne - where I am in North Yorkshire we could grow rice as the fields haave been waterlogged for ...oh about a year now

Any excuse to keep increasing prices!
We have been lucky with our < temperate> climate compared with continental coutries on the same longitude. Trouble is with ours, is that it is not consistant.

Woke up to snow in Manchester!!! Everything is just about covered and still coming down..nice little surprise :)

Snowing again here in North Yorkshire.

It was surreal yesterday, took DS2 to school and drove through snow drifts the height of the car buy the fields were green. It's not the amount of snow that has fallen but the wind that has caused problems here.

Its trying to snow where I am in North Yorkshire. There is a light dusting.

I just want it to be dry in Cornwall for our holiday.

This time of year I'm usually in a mad rush to get any last seeds in. But this year I haven't planted a thing yet.

I've started feeding the birds too. I was worried about the new parents and baby birds not being able to find food, so I'm being bankrupted by the greedy things .