Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Ok.

Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

Evening all :)

Ok the jet stream is a river of air at around 7 miles ish high up. It flows at around 100mph but elements of it can accelerate up to 200mph. When it is fast it tends to be stronger and doesn't meander around. when it is weak it can meander. It can split if you get an upper level low which it has to try and get past.

The position and strength of the jet stream are somewhat determined by the pressure gradient across the Atlantic north to southwards. This is often measured as the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores (or sometimes Iberia). If the pressure difference is greater than normal it is known a positive NOA (north Atlantic oscillation) if it less than normal it is a negative NOA.

At the moment we are in a negative NOA. The jet stream is weak and further south than usual, still running through the Mediterranean . So we are stuck on the 'cold' side. This set up tends to result in blocked patterns where high pressure dominates, bringing in cold from Eastern Europe rather than the usual more mild westerlies.

At the moment a warm up seems quite gradual and we need to look towards the east to watch how Europe warms up. It's coming, slowly!

Thank you for such an informative answer OYBBK. Something to think about as I chill out after another evening shift at work.

That is very interesting oybbk. I still live in hope for Cornwall in a week's time, but wouldn't be British if I didn't!

OYBBK, thank you so much for sharing your knowledge. I find it fascinating.

You are welcome :)

If you look at GFS for next week Cornwall may not be too bad at times, perhaps a bit of a mix of rain and sun but relatively warm at times. In fact that could be said for much of the UK though Scotland seems to bear the brunt of the wetter weather according to GFS. In central England GFS shows temps grazing the mid teens by the middle of the week.

If you look at ECMWf, it prefers to keep us in the freezer.

That's really interesting OYBBK. I always thought the NAO was something to do with ocean currents. Now I know.

Looking at Cornwall, if this cuurent easterly howl comes round northerly as I'm seeing it might, I for one will be happy. Brambles, are you on the north or south coast next week?

We're right down on at the bottom, still northern edge, but south south south! Got a week to go - looks pleasant enough this week, but hope it warms up a bit or I will need thermals under my wetsuit!

North coast still then

Do not under any circumstances go in the sea. The water's 8 degrees! If you do, make sure it's a 5/3 or even 5/4 wetsuit with fully taped seams, and that you have a thermal rashvest, hoot, gloves and boots.

It looks sunny, but with a bit of a northerly/northeasterly "breeze". It'll be cold!

S.Herts
+1 last night so 2 degrees higher. Sun came out about 9am. 10 am, it was sunny and sleeting tiny hailstones and wind felt colder than yesterday.
< oh well back into my eskimo outfit this afternoon>

We have come to the conclusion that I am cursed. Everytime I go out on a driving lesson it starts snowing.

At least it didn't stick today!

Woke up to it snowing, but coming home this morning it was 4 degrees at 10AM with the sun shining bright.

S.Herts
Hmm! Sky now overcast and sun gone< grizzle face>

Thanks for the detail about the jet stream OTBBK. I have become obsessed with the jet stream since it was apparently the cause of our recent bad summers.

The fact that it is further south than normal doesn't mean that it is going to get stuck over us all summer again does it? I guess I am speculating in a wildly pessimistic fashion!

I am going with the theory cold spring equals hot summer...

S.Herts
My luck changed as at 3pm for little dog's afternoon walk it was warm and sunny. Took gloves off and undid the zip on my jacket and had it open!!
It remained sunny until 10 mins after getting home, when it sleeted and sky is still overcast.

I reckon we will have sleet/snow/hailstone April showers this year.
Reminds me of an old song " When April showers come your way - something endeding in May", old brain forgotten it, although the tune is still in my head.

oops ending

Delatron, if only I knew! The NOA does look like it may go positive soon. Maybe that is a ray of hope to cling on to!

I guess it's the million dollar question OYBBK. Will cling to any ray of hope!

I did hear the spring of 76 was very cold then that amazing heatwave. I guess once Europe heats up then things could improve significantly.

have I missed what might be happening in the south east next saturday 6th?

I remember the summer of 1976, but was working full-time. We were a nation of brown tanned skinned people in shorts .

Can't remember the Spring.
2006 was even hotter and more humid - or it could be because I was 30 years older and retired.

A tanned person in shorts? I'd have been an itchy, rashy, freckly person skulking in the shade!

I do that now, but then I was all for looking tanned and loved subathing with no side effects.
In 1985, however, I did get a black melanoma on my arm, caught just in time.
And in 1998, in May in Majorca, I got a heat rash on my shins which left them permanently mottled looking from sun damage.

I keep everything covered now , even in the heat as not a pretty sight anymore.

:(

I have something called polymorphic light eruption. It's really not pretty!

Lowest temp overnight was a chilly -5.6c at 6.50am, looks like it's going to be a lovely day though.
Happy Easter everyone!

S.Herts
-3 here so getting colder. Clear sky, so if stays like it all day, it will be forgiven
Happy Easter.

Beautiful sunny Easter morning here in Mancland but very cold, have a lovely day ladies :)