Badkitten's 'will it snow at Christmas?' thread

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

Just for fun

GFS had Christmas Day in sight now. Of course it's massively a long way off in forecast terms and it can't even make its mind up what is going to happen on Friday yet!

disclaimer: am only an amateur and this is my hobby. Please don't rely on it for any crucial decisions - I don't want you to get into pickles cos I got it wrong!

And now for the forecast......

[OliviaPeaceOnMumsnet]

@OhYouMerryLittleKitten

Do you think people would like it if I asked mn to sticky this thread or would it be massively big headed and go horribly wrong given that I'm just an amateur?

Hallo OYMMLK
Sorry we don't sticky stuff that isn't from MNHQ. So no worries about any inaccuracies.
Do keep it bumped please?
(any thoughts for the Herts area for the 25th? DS1 is convinced it is going to snow)
Thanks

[tak1ngchances]

Bump

[tak1ngchances]

[ZebraInHiding]

Oooh! Olivia! So glad you asked! I was coming in to see what Herts was doing over Christmas too. Now with an MNHQ'er asking, we are sure to get snow!

[NorksAreTinselly]

Sticky type bump.
I think OYBBK should be employed by MNHQ as official weather witch :)

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

That would be a great job!

Olivia, at the moment your ds would be rather disappointed I'm afraid. GFS looks positively soggy. HOWEVER, tonight one of the models is starting to break ranks and go for cold 3 days before hand. Is this going to be the break we are waiting for? Update tomorrow........

[TwoSillyHatsWithBellsOn]

Mainly just posting so this keeps appearing in threads I'm on, I've always found kitten more accurate than BBC.

Still hoping things change and we get a white Christmas though (SW and it's never going to happen).

[ZebraInHiding]

OYBBK - can I please ask what sites you browse for your forecasts? I have recently found netweather, which is so much more accurate than bbc etc. Would love to look into it all a bit more. THanks!

[mumat39]

It didn't get much above zero today. At 7.30 I popped out to do some late night shopping. I got back in the car at 8.30 and the car temp thingy said it was +5 degrees and it was drizzling.

I'm in SW London, so I think the warm up has started, here at least.

I was so hoping for snow. :(

Kitten, here's a hot chocolate and some .

[DamnDeDoubtance]

Come on kitten, you left us on a cliff hanger.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

give me a chance....

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

GFS still going for a wet and mild Christmas. I've started looking closely at the Ensembles too which are a collection of GFS runs with slightly different starting points, for a crumb of hope but couldnt find any!

Horrific Boxing day storm has gone now. Phew!

Sadly ECMWF is looking quite similar to GFS, no swing to colder weather. How mean of it last night! Tomorrow Christmas Day itself comes into ECMWF range.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

Zebra,
for ensembles I use netweather

for general charts I use wetterzentrale

for a quick glance at the recent synoptic situation you can't beat met office surface pressure charts

mumat - thank you :)

[ajandjjmum]

Captain Nancy
P & O - Oceana - hopefully clear of Norovirus and looking lovely after a makeover . Should be nice - family group of ten, so something for everyone - fingers crossed.

[CaptainNancy]

Thank you Hope you have a wonderful time!

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

Morning all.
Today GFS shows wet and mild for Christmas Day. No Boxing Day storm again though, phew! Something might be afoot though as the control run for the GFS ensembles goes out on a limb and just after Christmas does a rather nice dive into cold. ECMWF takes a similar theme to GFS.

[ArielTheBahHumbugMermaid]

Oh rats. I have gone and told everyone I know to beware of the Boxing Day apocalyptic storm, including a very high up geologist at the National Oceanographic Institute . Now I'll look like a twat

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

Oh no Ariel!!!! Never mind, it might reappear!

Don't worry, I look like a twat loads.

[LillethTheCat]

Just marking place in thread as we have to travel down to York Christmas day and back up Boxing day. Looking good so far. Will not be buying christmas dinner in just in case just yet then.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

Morning all,

Slightly more interesting GFS chart this morning, which shows things starting to cool down on Christmas Day, still quite mild and wet (but maybe white stuff for northern Scottish hills) but after that things continue to cool down. showing potential for more widespread snow on the 27th with northerly winds!

Cold Spell doesn't last for long at the moment, but its early days and of course if it came in a bit earlier...... (Which sadly they tend not to in my experience)

Looking at ECMWF it actually shows a similar picture, but maybe not quite so ready to keep more than a days or twos worth of cold.

So, chin up folks, game isn't over yet! (And other patronising statements like that!)

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

Worth mentioning though that ECMWF does show a rather nasty low pressure over northern Scotland Christmas Day which would bring the risk of high winds to much of southern Scotland and perhaps northern England.
Probably be gone on tomorrow's model though!

[tak1ngchances]

Swings and roundabouts!! I am trying not to get my hopes up after that terribly disappointing show from the Beast

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

I wouldn't get your hopes up yet, but at least the models aren't all doom and gloom today!

And we have lovely sunshine here this morning.

[tak1ngchances]

Yes it's a glorious day!

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

Hmmmm, just had a look at the latest GFS run.

Nasty storm now showing for the 23rd/24th with severe gales /storm force winds running through the channel and the south.

Probably will be gone again tomorrow but that's the second model run to throw up something really nasty around Christmas.

Sadly it also shows no cold spell post Christmas.