Awful weather coming up this week

[OhYouGreatGreatBritain]

After this lovely weekend I'm afraid things revert back to normal, with some high rainfall totals expected with each part of the uk getting its own turn at heavy rain. No signs of improvement really until towards the end of August when there are some hints of better weather.

I saw hints of this on the BBC, but didn't believe it. ...but now you've said it and you are the guru it must be true.

Shhh....Don't tell DH or the dses, I was hoping for a camping trip

Can't complain, I've just come back from 2 weeks in North Wales with a suntan We had mostly good weather, a couple of storms and heavy downpours but pretty good mostly.

It would be nice if it continued though.....

oh no! DS1, my pfb is off to the Scout International Jamboree in Essex on Saturday...is it going to be a case of mud, glorious mud?

Oh no i was hoping it would clear up by the end of the week. I'm getting married on Saturday. In the rain apparently!

Well, at the moment, ( and it's a long way off) gfs is showing the se as being dry on saturday, with the Rain lingering in a swathe from the sw and Wales across up to the NE.

Wednesday looks nasty, some very high winds, particularly in the SW where they could gust to over 50mph. Challenging for camping and quite possibly for channel crossings I'n afraid. Lots of heavy rain too.

OYBBK what are the chances of a nice warm sunny day in the north east on thursday and friday? DD's birthday. Oh and Sunday, big annual family BBQ? Shall we abandon all hope now?

:( really?/??

we had a wet camping trip in July, so when the weather improved we decided to go and visit the in-laws this coming weekend inthe hope that we'd get down to the beach at last.
they're in the south west :(

ARGH!

In your expert opinion OYGGB, would we be better going this weekend coming, or waiting until beginning of September?

next weekend is actually starting to look quite interesting. Whilst gfs shows rain for a good part of the country, it also shows hot dry weather in the SE (temps of 30C), so if you are planning a camping trip, that at the moment looks the place to be, with caution as I think that there is rather a recipe for some decent thunderstorms in that set up. However Cape ( convective available potential energy) values are low for SE England so perhaps not.

Big heads up though if you are planning to be camping in ne and central France next weekend (and also Belgium). CAPE values on gfs are through the roof and so the possibility of some severe storms there.

oreo - slim, though thursday looks to be your better bet atm.

OYGGB, I haven't seen all your early threads, so forgive me, but is this a hobby of yours, or more?

Ah feck, we're crossing the channel on Wed night, and pore little DD2 gets seasick

Off to a festival in South Wales from Friday - does this mean I have to go and buy DS some new wellies?

OOMYCO - purely a hobby, albeit a rather obsessive one

exexpat. based on todays model output I'd say yes I'm afraind.

Poledra :( oh dear. Can you drug her with something useful?

We'll be camping near the south downs hopefully so I'll keep everything crossed for no thunderstorms!

Thanks! Will still go out, but take the usual british winter summer accessories, wellies, rain coat, suncream !

What do you reckon for west coast of Scotland - say Isle of Mull? For two weeks from Saturday......just wondering

So where do you learn all this stuff? It's great!

exexpat.. "Off to a festival in South Wales from Friday - does this mean I have to go and buy DS some new wellies?"

If this is GreenMan then Snap exexpat!!

OHYBK, I'll be in Crickhowell for the festival, we were planning to arrive Thursday; is there any part of the day that's looking dryish as we will arrange to arrive then and pitch the 3 tents we promised friends we would do .

Lol NL, a lot will change between now and then which is fortunate as gfs shows a low pressure (not terribly deep) with a fair amount of rain associated with it. Doesn't mean that tthat low pressure will form as placed if it forms, but it does indicate that things are still very unsettled with the bastard jet stream still staying far too south.

OOMTCO, firstly I ought to say that i do get it wrong loads and I've still got masses to learn. I think any lurking professional forecasters probably roll their eyes at what I say

I've picked stuff up from a variety of sources. I've done a short basic ou course ( which is accessible for anyone and I'd highly recommend it) there's also a free source of lectures and courses at met ed some of them are way above me but theres loads of interesting ones and often they are quite topical, so for instance I've done one on volcanic ash.
I also go to conferences a couple of times a year and learn loads from people who know what they are talking about! I read weather journals and I also lurk on weather forums and if I'm not sure how a synoptic situtation translates into what will happen on the ground I can get a reasonable idea from what they are saying.
I'd love a real job doing this, I have to say.

It's fascinating...

ShouldI, timings are quite difficult at the moment, I've looked at a couple of different models and the fax charts and it depends on associated troughs and fronts with the low, but both seem to have the best window of opportunity as being around lunchtime at the moment, so for the moment, I'd plan for then. Give me a nudge tomorrow or Wednesday and I'll have another look for you.

Thanks so much you weather genius

this is only a hobby?? I always assumed you were a professional, you're so knowledgeable (although in fairness you could be talking complete crap for all I know!)
So, Windermere on the 24th and 25th please? It's a little specific, but I have faith in your abilities :o