Icelandic volcano - Grimsvotn eruption

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

starting a thread here about it as it is possible there may be some air travel disruption perhaps from it. I don't think it will be on the scale of Eyjaf from what i've been reading but it is possible that the back edge of tomorrows storm may bring the ash over uk space. If it does then the amount of disruption caused will depend on the type of ash (at the moment coarser I believe than Eyjafs eruption, so less likely to hang around) and the height and density of the plume. I'll spend a bit of time later trawling the boards and news to try and get a better feel for probabilities.

just seen this [sad

We are due to be flying to Tenerife from Edinburgh on Thursday afternoon.

Any ideas Kitten?

Am absolutely gutted.... Holiday was ruined last may due to ash. Am really worried, as we have booked flights (ryanair) and hotel separately so don't even know where we would stand with refunds.v

geordieminx, I have no idea as to how the CAA and plane companies will react to the amount and type of ash and the altitudes involved. I'm also waiting for the latest updates as to how active the volcano is today.

Unfortunately I came on to the thread to talk about the jet stream which is pretty mobile at the moment. It at the moment (and this may well change, so try not to worry) is predicted to come down strongly from Iceland on thursday. You can see here (click on the right arrow) the jet stream winds are a continuous band of high speed winds moving from west to east at high altitude - the more intense the colour, the stronger they are but the important thing is to follow the shape from left to right.

I'm home all day today and will be checking frequently around the boards. As soon as I have any more info I'll post back.

latest from the bbc

Pilot forum discussion - handy for getting hints and thoughts from (some) professionals.

I've seen the met office charts for Thu and it not looking good for air travel. They are predicting total airspace closure as far south as Northern France.

They are not being published though because the weather patterns are difficult to predict accurately so keep your fingers crossed for a good westerly wind.

sorry geordie :( Things can well change though so try not to get too despondent.

Aubergine - I am very jealous - is it the vaac charts you've seen? I have to say, that what you say isnt so surprising looking at the weather charts. They've changed the acceptable limit quite considerably since last years volcano haven't they? - so the amount then would exceed those limits if thats how it pans out? I wonder how the airlines will react.

I'm just reading caa guidelines because I think I heard airlines are allowed to use their discretion more as to whether to fly or not.

Fortunately from what I can see ATC can refuse to give clearance for areas designated a 'Danger area'. Reassuring.

here we go again DC1 and 2 delayed by 9 days last April due to ash and 3 days at Christmas due to snow and DC2 is due to be flying out for a week on Saturday. I am definitely jinxed

We are flying with bloody Ryanair... No doubt, like last year they'll be the first airline to ground all flights

Yes they were the VAAC charts.

The airlines can use their discretion for the two lower levels of ash but for the highest level (red on the charts) the airspace closes.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/volcano/public/eurasia.html#D4

There are new guideline for airlines and airports implemented since the airspace closure in April 2010.

Any comparisons to last year's situation are hypothetical.

Latest indications suggest that ash from Iceland's Grimsvotn volcano was unlikely to lead to the widespread travel disruption caused by last year's Eyjafjallajokull eruption, which is now considered by many as an over-reaction with the airspace closure unnecessary.

Updates are given every 6 hours from the MET office with advisory information on the situation, with updates every 6 hours.

I was told Ryanair were the first to ground their planes because they own rather than more commonly lease them.

The question is would you rather fly with an airline taking the risk as it's not their engines that are going to be written off if they've assessed the risk incorrectly or stay totally safe on the ground.

I sort of hope for a flight ban so that I don't have to travel to a dreaded family occasion...

Thank you aubergine :) I've been trawling through the IVATFT task force document - heavy going but interesting. Looking at those charts and your explanation clarifies it a lot. Not a whole lot of blue on those charts!!

Woznot - what do you base that analysis on?

Aubergine, I know what you are saying and totally agree, but when it all kicked off last year we were in Tenerife, and Ryanair was the only airline not flying. So we paid fir alternative flights. One Irvine cabin staff said it was due to the type of aircraft, and that because Ryanair typically have smaller planes, they didn't have enough fuel on board to make the diversion that was in place?

No idea how true that is?

I feel sick.

geordie - please try not to worry, it is all forecast and conjecture at the moment. A lot could change between now and then - volcanoes are pretty unpredictable beasts.

You are right. I shall stay calm and think happy thoughts.

Thanks for all of the hard work and time that you put into these threads. I know itvis appreciated by a lot of folk

You are welcome - I'm crossing my fingers and toes for you :)

Geordie-I agree with OYBBK, don't start worrying just yet. 3 days is a long time for a weather pattern or volcano to change.

OYBBK - CAA website
www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=2011&pagetype=90&pageid=11368

with further links to advisory publications
www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=2011&pagetype=90&pageid=12018

I am not a pilot nor do I own an airline or work for the MET office. Analysis - no, just my views from reading what's published by those that make the guidelines. IMHO blogs and news items today will all be hype, very little fact.

I would sit back and have a coffee and worry bout what's for dinner. That's what I'm doing.

Thank you for the links Wotznot :) I'm not sure though how they relate to the current ash forecast maps?

me neither