www.24housing.co.uk/news/strong-message-for-housing-providers-in-latest-population-statistics/
Strong message for housing providers in latest population statistics
Stats show extent to which population is ageing – illustrating the need for housing to keep up.
Share
BT-circlecut
Bill Tanner
11:27 August 23, 2019
0
Share
governance-670x454
New UK population stats send a strong message to housing providers: Get a grip on the hold of the old.
The Office National Statistics (ONS) says that by 2050 one in four people in the UK will be 65 and older – up from around one in five last year.
Overall, 65-plus is the fastest growing group.
“The structure of the UK’s population is changing: People living longer and having fewer children means the age structure is shifting towards later ages,” says Sarah Coates, Centre for Ageing and Demography, ONS.
In June, 24housing reported a cross-party alliance pushing for later living as a housing priority.
A high-profile group of MPs, Lords, charity leaders, and business leaders publicly declared their support for a major expansion of the UK’s Retirement Community sector as a specialist housing priority over the coming decade – seeing the sector quadrupling in size by 2030 to 250,000 people.
The sector already accounts for 75% of all projected growth in the UK’s supply of specialist housing for older people from 2024 onwards.
The ONS references projections that pitch the population share of later-life age groups increasing further in future years.
By 2041, the 1960s’ baby boomers will have progressed into their 70s and 80s, and by 2068 there could be an additional 8.2m people aged 65 years and over in the UK – a population roughly the size of present-day London.
This, ONS says, would take the UK’s 65-plus age group to 20.4m people – accounting for 26.4% of the projected population.
In 1998, around one in six people were 65 and over (15.9%); this increased to one in every five people in 2018 (18.3%) and is projected to reach around one in every four people (24.2%) by 2038.
Comparatively, an estimated 20.5% of the population were under 16 years old in 1998, decreasing to 19.0% in 2018 and a projected decline to 17.4% by 2038.
Again, in 1998, 63.6% of the population were aged between 16 and 64, down to 62.7% in 2018 and a projected decline to 58.4% in 2038.
Within the UK, the older population comprises higher proportions of the populations of rural and coastal areas rather than urban areas.
One traditional measure used to consider the impact of an ageing population is the Old-Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) – which measures the number of people of pensionable age and over per 1,000 people aged 16 years to State Pension Age (SPA).
In 1998, the OADR was 300; by 2008 this had increased to 307, suggesting increased dependency.
In 2018, the OADR decreased to 295.
However, the UK’S OADR is projected to increase into the future, reaching 360 by 2038.
While there are increases to the number of people above State Pension age, the ONS acknowledges seeing the number of people aged 65 and over and in work being higher than ever.
Using an alternative measure that takes into account the contribution of older workers, analysis found that economic dependency has shown an improvement, despite the population becoming older.
Another strong message for providers comes with cohabiting families being the fastest-growing family type and more young adults living with their parents.
The stats show that, since 2008, there have been an additional 700,000 cohabiting couple families – a growth rate of 25.8%.
Meanwhile, more young adults are living with their parents.
In 2018, the first age at which more than 50% of young people left the parental home was 23.
Two decades earlier, more than 50% of 21-year-olds had already left home.
Young men aged 20 to 34 living in the UK are more likely than young women to be living with their parents – 31% and 20% respectively.
In addition, the ONS acknowledges increases in the numbers of people living alone.
Between 2008 and 2018, there has been a 6% increase from 7.5 million to 8 million.
This increase was driven primarily by the increase in the number of older men living alone: a 55% increase for men aged 65 to 74 years and a 20% increase for men aged 75 years and over.
In 2018, nearly half of those living alone (48%) were aged 65 years and over and more than one in four (27%) were aged 75 years and over.
UK Population Overview 2019 – Main Points
In mid-2018, the population of the UK reached an estimated 66.4m
The UK population’s growth rate in mid-2017 and mid-2018, at 0.6%, was slower than any year since mid-2004
Long-term international migration to and from the UK has remained broadly stable since the end of 2016 and has also continued to be the main driver of the UK’s population growth
In 50 years’ time, there is projected to be an additional 8.2 million people aged 65 years and over in the UK
After decades of improvement to life expectancy, the latest figures show a slowdown in improvement – life expectancy at birth remained at 79.2 years for males and 82.9 years for females in 2015 to 2017