It is impossible for anyone here to tell you how likely you are to get your preference, I’m afraid.
For schools that are not wholly independent, the LA must name your preferred school unless the LA can prove:
-The setting is unsuitable for the age, ability, aptitude or special educational needs
-Attendance would be incompatible with the provision of efficient education for others
-Attendance would be incompatible with the efficient use of resources.
The bar to prove one of the above is high, but that doesn’t stop LA’s sometimes refusing.
The rules are slightly different for wholly independent schools in case that applies.
Have you had a phase transfer review meeting this term? If not, is the meeting imminently?
The placement named in section I is the logical conclusion of B&F. B+F=I. Therefore, are B&F good? Do they accurately reflect DS’s needs and the provision he requires? Is the 1:1 detailed, specified and quantified in F? Is the evidence supportive?
IIRC LB of Havering’s ARPs are not separately registered units. They are part of the mainstream school. Until earlier this year, case law established that the school should be named in section I (without reference to the ARP) and the provision provided by the ARP included in F (but not naming the specific provider). Some LAs would still name the ARP, but SENDIST would not. Earlier this year, more case law established that in some cases it can be lawful to name the specific unit in F &/or in I alongside the school’s name. Although in many cases it is still just the school named in I rather than the ARP.
Have you spoken to your preferred schools, your nearest mainstream and any other schools the LA may consult?
So you are aware, you didn’t have to complete the LA’s preference form and you didn’t have to state more than one preference.