2-1 nap transition pain - help me work out what to do

[Lelongducanal]

Feels like I’m endlessly second guessing naps and bedtime and it’s driving me mad, help!

15mo, prior to this was doing 10-10.5 overnight and between 1.5-2 hours naps between 2 naps. Started waking v early which i know is usual around this stage - 4.30 or 5 and not really going back to sleep. Then he’s knackered all morning and was napping at 9ish for an hour, then sometimes refusing nap 2. Last two nights he’s been up 1.5-2 hours in the middle of the night, so only getting 9 hours total.
ive been trying a longer, later first nap because he always sleeps longest in the morning - yesterday it was 10-11.15, then a 15 min cat nap 3.00, bedtime at 8pm. He was shattered all day, still woke up 2am-3.30.

Should I try just one nap at 11 or something? He won’t sleep in cot yet (buggy naps) and it isn’t predictable how long he’ll sleep so there’s a risk he’ll only get an hour and I’m concerned he’s overtired already.
Or, stick to the two nap plan with a cat nap in the afternoon for a few days and see if it improves nights? I do give him Calpol at night just in case but it does seem as if he just can’t drop off back to sleep, though rubbing eyes etc.

I'd definitely drop down to one nap, can you do it slightly later after lunch (even if you did lunch super early at 11ish) so that he's lovely and full, as that may encourage a longer nap too.

We managed the transition by doing a 10 min buggy nap ideally before 10.30. Then a longer nap after lunch.

Thanks guys. He’s done 10.40-12.10 this morning so I think that’s probably it for the day then early to bed 🤷‍♀️ we shall see. If he gets up super early tomorrow I’ll try the 10 min morning nap then aim for a good stretch after lunch. Just hoping these long night wakes resolve, they’re very bleak 😂😭

I think youd do better to stick with 2 naps and later bedtime. Earlier bedtime is more likely to cause the long overnight wakes.

Thanks. We shall see… he was screaming the house down in bed at 6.30, I have a bad feeling about tonight!

Oh this stage is so rough, you're doing everything "right" and it still feels chaotic! A few things that might help make sense of it:
15 months is honestly right in the messy overlap zone for the 2-1 transition — some days he needs both naps, some days one is plenty, and that inconsistency is actually really normal for a few weeks/months before it settles. The early waking + fighting nap 2 + longer first nap are all classic signs he's transitioning, not necessarily ready to drop to one nap fully yet.
I'd lean towards NOT going straight to one nap at 11 yet — that's a big jump and with buggy naps being unpredictable in length, you're risking him getting overtired without a reliable "make up" nap. Instead, something that tends to work well in this messy phase: keep 2 naps most days, but cap nap 1 (say 45 min max) so he's more likely to take a proper nap 2, rather than nap 1 eating the whole morning. On days he refuses nap 2 anyway, an earlier bedtime (6:30-7) that day helps stop the overtired night-waking spiral.
The 2am-3.30am wake even on a "good" nap day suggests he might just be overtired in general right now regardless of nap timing — sometimes pushing bedtime earlier for a stretch (even if naps are imperfect) breaks that cycle faster than perfecting the naps first.
I wrote up a full breakdown of the 2-1 transition timing and how to actually navigate the messy in-between phase if it helps: https://babyguidenest.com/toddler-nap-schedule-when-to-drop-the-nap-how-to-transition/
Hang in there, this phase does pass 💛

Thanks for the support - I remember this period with my eldest so I know it won’t last forever. But it feels long! Hmm I dunno - so far:
Sunday napped 10.40-12.10 and slept all night til 5am which is average wake time for him.
Monday napped at 9.30 and 3.20 for 45 mins each at the childminders and woke briefly at 11.30 then up at 4.30 and couldn’t go back to sleep, which is only about 8 hours of night sleep. So I think that late nap isn’t serving us.

sorry, just thinking out loud now!

We’re in this boat. Current day looks like:

6am wake up
9am 10-15 min power nap
12:30/12:45 - 2pm lunch nap
bedtime 7pm

trying hard to drop the morning nap but she doesn’t always wake up at 6am. Today was 5:30 for example and that’s just too long for her to get to lunch time

Mine were both about 10 or 11 months when they dropped to 1 nap and with my first I sort of swapped between 2 and 1 naps depending on the day and like you said it felt like it went on forever and was just unsettled. With my second when she was showing signs of being ready to drop I just pushed through for about 2 weeks. Lots of her favourite activities and distraction and push out that first nap until she can’t last anymore and basically the same at bedtime then within a couple of weeks she was just used to it