Scottish Referendum debate - watch with Mumsnet

[KatieMumsnet]

So tonight sees the first TV debate of the Scottish Referendum with First Minister and key advocate of the pro- yes campaign, Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling, leader of the pro-UK Better Together campaign coming together for a head to head debate for the first time.

You can watch live from 8pm on STV and if you're south of the border can tune in via the STV player.

Fancy watching along with us? What are you hoping to see from tonight's debate? What are your thoughts on the campaigns so far?

If you've decided which way to vote, why? And if not, what will help you decide?

Do feel free to share these, and any more thoughts you have

Terrible grammar there, but you get my point!

No-one seems to know the answer to this one, so I'll ask on this thread and see if anyone might be able to help.

What happens if, and it's a big if but still a possibility, Scotland becomes independant, and then decides a few years down the line that it's a bad idea. What if in a few years time the economy, for whatever reason, is in the toilet and it's bankrupt like Greece, Portugal etc? What happens then if Scotland decides it would have been better off staying? Will the rest of the UK have to accept them back into the Union? Are they allowed to do that? Even if nothing majorly disastrous happens, what happens if five years later everything is disorganised, they're still not EU members, people don't like it, and it's just felt that they'd like to re-join, please.

No, I don't know if any of this is going to actually happen, it's just a question that's been bugging me. I'm English so not voting, obviously, but I think I'd err on the side of No as I don't have a lot of confidence that the Yes side has any safety-net or contingency plans for IF it goes tits up.

I think the likelihood of us getting back into the Union are very, very slim/non-existent, which is why it's so important (imo) to have the facts and figures for breaking away set out very, very clearly - something that the SNP haven't (again, imo) done.

I would imagine that a decision to 'reunite ' would have to be subject to a referendum on both sides, rather like joining the eu where each country has to vote to join. So not only would Scotland have to say "can we come back please " and vote for that, I think rUK would have to vote for it too.

Which I think is about as likely as me winning Olympic gold in men's gymnastics!

Of course Scotland could be a successful independent country, just not with the polocies of the SNP or the Labour party. If you vote yes, then you need to be sure neither of these parties would be in control.
Scotland has run a defecit for 21 of the last 22 years.

I would like to point out it's not that I think Scotland can't go it on it's own, I'm just concerned that everything is a bit premature at the moment, and that they may be rushing into independance without being completely prepared for it.

In the extremely unlikely event that iScotland becomes bankrupt (we have massive natural resources not enjoyed by Greece or Portugal) we would be bailed out by the EU, just as Greece and Portugal have been, albeit with horrific austerity measures, mass unemployment etc. We would not seek to rejoin rUK, esp if rUK had voted to leave the EU in the interim.

My own preference would be a devo-max type thing along the lines of a federal system - more independence than we have at present, with more local accountability, but within a strong UK context. That would give us the best of both worlds in the truest sense and time to build up to independence - or conversely, reject it - but with the benefit of a deeper understanding of the benefits and pitfalls.

There are some pretty huge assumptions in there oldlady. Firstly that we are even in the eu, which isn't certain especially if things went downhill fast. And secondly that the eu would bail us out -which is by no means a certainly. The principal reason Greece etc were bailed out was that they are in the euro and so could not be allowed to default as it would drag the whole euro down. But we're not going to be using the euro apparently...

Agree statistically.

Did we ever find out what currency union we are going to be part of?

The one that's best for Scotland. Duh!

I doubt Scotland would be instantly accepted by the EU, which seems to be something Alex Salmond is assuming - I really wish someone more articulate had taken his place in the debate (I also wish Cameron had turned up for the No side mind you). Salmond is like those old boys in the pub who hold their opinions and that is that, you can throw all the logic and reason you like at them, they'll just stand there smirking with their arms folded and their ears firmly closed.

I'm sure Scotland could go through the process to become an EU member, but they'd have to have answers for some of the questions they don't seem to have answers for yet - primarily the currency question. If all the 'Powers That Be' in England are saying that it can't happen, and that Scotland would be in contravention of EU currency laws, could Scotland just keep the pound anyway? Or what about the groat, could that be the answer?

Which is, Statistically.....??!

Exactly! Which is statistically......?

SirChenjini, I think that's the first time I've agreed with you over many indyref threads. Had that option been on the ballotpaper, I'd have gone for it, and I believe most others would have done too; it would have been a landslide winner.

But Cameron said no, it must be a yes/no ballot, because he believed we'd say no and he could carry on as before. There's no appetite in WM to give us any true devo, and they won't if say say no. It'll just be more austerity, more cuts, more kids raised in poverty, the dismantling of our NHS, removal of free prescriptions, imposal of student tuition fees. And that'll be whether it's Tories next GE, or Labour. And we know this because they've already told us.

Things won't go downhill fast. They won't go downhill at all; there may be a few years while we sort ourselves out, but there's no way iScotland would or could be bankrupt in a decade. We have huge natural resources and assets that people want; our oil, gas, whisky just for starters. There's no reason to think we'll be out of the EU either; yes, we'll have to renegotiate t&c but the idea that Spain, for example, would be willing to give up access to our fisheries just to stick it's tongue out at us and up Cameron's arse is risible.

I was quoting salmond! We'll be in a currency union cos that's what is best.

On currency, a formal CU with £ is best not only for Scotland, but also rUK. Without it, rUK would no longer be a petrocurrency supported by our oil and gas industry and would lose 10% of GDP while taking on all of the debt (as stated by the Treasury earlier this year). This would lead to a drop in credit rating, leading to higher borrowing costs for gvt and also anyone with a mortgage, overdraft or credit card. We don't want that to happen because 70% of our exports go to rUK, so it's in our best interests to share the £ and the debt. Win win.

And yes, we could just keep using it anyway, but that would still lead to rUK credit rating dropping etc so... It's back to a formal CU.

I disagree oldlady -I do think in the long run that an independent Scotland could cope. But I think going downhill fast could easily happen - a.few big fs companies leaving, lack of investment due to uncertainty whilst everything is thrashed out, plus the costs of setting up everything that needs to be could see us in trouble. Especially if we end up flying solo currency wise. I don't think a sizeable recession in the shorter term is unrealistic as a potential outcome.

Statistically

Do we find ourselves agreeing on the federal system option?! Sadly neither side has the mandate on that one - I don't recall the SNP fighting for that one, or setting out the facts and figures for that option any more than any of the UK Govts ever have...so on that note, pur disagreement must resume I fear

Agree again Statistically - we are not such a strong economy that it wouldn't take much for a few msjor companies to move south , or for a pipeline to be moved to Berwick, or for Grangemouth to close for us to get into serious financial difficulties.

And on thst note I must get to the shops to stock up on emergency supplies in the event of a Yes vote. Adios amigos

old lady the Treasury said they would guarantee all existing UK debt, not that Scotland would not take responsibility for it. The reasoning is that lenders have lent to the current UK, and it is difficult/impossible to seperate out who Scotland would owe money to and who rUK would owe money to.
The debt/asset split is irrelevant to currency union.
Scotland cannot refuse to take on their share of UK debt as no-one would lend to them in the future due to them being irresponsible.

OldLady if Scotland take none of the UK debt, then they have no credit rating. What percentage interest rate do you think they will need to pay while they establish one?

I know I've said this before on threads on this subject, but the level of wilful ignorance of the economics of a 'Yes' vote is incredibly scary.

From a purely selfish point of view I would love to see Scotland say yes. 1.because I think it would be fascinating to watch what happened over the next few years, and 2.because it removes a significant proportion of Labour's natural majority in WM that it created for itself with boundary alterations.

However I would be very sad to see Scotland leave the Union, my gut emotional response would be to vote 'No' if I had a vote - along with the fact that I am genuinely concerned that Scotland could go bankrupt which would be awful for everyone living there.

OldLady if Scotland take none of the UK debt, then they have no credit rating. What percentage interest rate do you think they will need to pay while they establish one?

I'm not sure this is entirely true. The WM government is treating the possible independence thing as Scotland leaving rUK, as opposed to an equal separation of nations. In the former scenario Scotland is not entitled to any of the assets of the UK eg the pound, it is also not still as signatory in UK treaties eg the EU. However, in this case Scotland would also not be expected to take on any of the debt. Obviously it would be unreasonable for Scotland to leave with no assets and all the debt.

The debt like everything else is up for negotiation.

Great to see the debate still going strong.

I was one of those frustrated Englanders watching through buffering STV stream.

Anyhow, we thought it might work well to invite both Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling on for a webchat with Mumsnetters, and have just done so. Fingers crossed they say yes, and can fit us in before the big day. Will keep you posted.

MNHQ

ItsAll I agree completely with everything you've said, but it still leaves an independent Scotland with no credit rating.