Are average GCSE grades enough to cope with chosen A levels?

[Universitydilema]

I’ve seen quite a lot recently about whether children should study A levels if their GCSE’s are average and whether a different path would be better. My DD had 2 grade 7’s, 4 grade 6’s and 3 grade 5’s. This enough to do her chosen Alevels at her current school but is she going to find too hard with these grades?

It depends on how hard she tried to get those grades.

Good question—she was pretty hopeless and disorganised in first year and then really turned things around at Easter and revised hard then.

Depends on the subjects - if the A Levels are what she got the 7s in I'm sure she'll be fine. If she's wanting to do maths or languages after getting a 5 it's going to be a struggle.

She is going to studying photography, sociology and psychology. I know she will be fine with photography but worried how she will be with the other 2. She got a grade 5 (or though was predicted a 7) grade 7 in English lit and 6,6 in science.

Those grades are fine to take A-levels providing the subjects she chooses are sensible choices.

But also - what's the alternative? Vocational courses are good, but you need to make a wise choice there too, they are not automatically a safe choice.

A-levels are a step up, but many students find it easier to only have their chosen subjects to study, the breadth and sheer number of GCSEs is a lot to deal with.

I think the question that doesn't get asked is if a student comes in on grade 6 for this subject what should they expect to achieve on average for their A level grade? Or with this grade profile if they have never had the opportunity to take this subject before?

There is probably a later version of this but GCSE to A level grades have been tracked for years https://www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/Images/674348-progression-from-gcse-to-a-level-2018-2020.pdf

Some children peak at GCSE some do better at A level than ever imagined. It depends on a lot of factors - whether there was a minimum grade entry for the subject, sciences usually need a 6 to do well, the cohort of the class and how fast the class can pick up new topics. The general behaviour of the class and whether there is low level disruption. The child themselves, how motivated they are personally, whether they would seek help if they struggled both whist the class is taking place or later when the teacher is available, if they are available. Whether they would look into extra resources outside of school. Teachers are not the be all and end all. And friendship groups.

My son and his mates were all aiming for top ranked unis, they came out of class and if they had a free period they used it to do the homework of the class they just came out of. Other students would do this work at home. The sixth form provided a large area to study in and a separate social area. It meant they could study in peace. Not everyone has that option at home.

Anecdotally almost everyone ive spoken to (from various schools) has got at least 1 grade lower than predicted, in English this year

Dc1 got similar grades and did a btec partly because knew exams were where they'd struggle, they went on to uni and it has not held them back.
My dt and dn are all doing alevels at present.
Dn is actually changing to a btec got an extra 7 than your dd and was taking sociology, psychology and biology. Has really struggled and has been predicted 3Ds. He is like my dc1 not great at exams so hopefully a health and social care btec will be a better fit.
Dt1 got high grades (8-9s) and is doing really well however is motivated and independent in their learning.
Dt2 got grades 6-8 and is struggling more so with the independent work and lack of direction than the academic work.
So I think its as much to do with how they learn, how self driven they are and how motivated they are than just what grades they got.
Look at the assessments for different courses and assess that against what your dd is best as. How organised, disciplined and motivated she is.
Dont automatically think alevels are better than btecs but also look at what btecs are best for dd as they can put young people down a path quite early on.

Candidates tend to score on average around two grades lower on A level than on the same subject at GCSE (with the exception of very strong candidates who maintain the top grade). Take the most closely related subjects at GCSE to the A level choices, convert to letter grades, so e.g. 7->A, 6-> B. Then adjust downwards by two grades to get a baseline expected A level outcome . so e.g. 766 -> ABB -> CDD. That's the baseline prediction - it can be moderated upwards or downward by hard work (or lack of it) or, to a lesser extent, exceptional teaching, but most subjects will come out within a grade of that prediction on each subject. It really depends on whether an outcome like CDD will get her where she wants to go, or whether an alternative route might work better.

Mine got 99 and lost only 1 mark on lit paper 1 AQA. Prediction was 7 for lit and 6 for language

Mine was predicted 7 in lit and got a 9. Aqa as well.

it’s the old adage isn’t it if you torture numbers enough they’ll admit to anything.

I would say those are some of the softer A levels (all A levels are rigorous but some are acknowledged to be easier than others) and she had the potential to get decent, although maybe not amazing, grades.

If she is only just maturing academically and is keen and works hard, she can clearly do better than if she slogged her guts out to get those GCSEs and was already organised and mature

DD got one 7, four 6s and two 5s, did 3 A levels, just got BBB, could have got higher in my opinion if she had consistently engaged. She chose creative subjects, if she had to do maths, science or a language she couldn't have got them. It depends if your child wants to do them and will work hard as well as their ability

You defined your meaning of average with your example (though I suspect they are still above the mean)
You also have to think what grade A level results would you think acceptable.

Well it surely depends on what grades she needs at A-level to get on the course she wants or whatever she wants to do after. The mapping of the GCSe to A-level grades is by and large consistent so 8/9s tend to translate to A/A*, 6/7s tend to B/C etc. obviously there are exceptions to the rule and only you know for your child underachieved at GCSE.

personally I wouldn’t do an A-level without the minimum of a 7 at gcse as A-levels are so much harder and I think the stress would be difficult trying to keep up

My YP got roughly the same grades and she got 3 x B for her A levels. But your daughter’s grades don’t sound mediocre at all. She’s done really well.

Some students also don’t achieve as well as they could at a level because the exam season is so grueling. So id factor her reports and working at grades into the decision.

plus there will have been GCSEs she found harder and sucked up time. Hopefully at A Level this isn’t the case and so the overall outcome is better

I think she should be fine, she clearly isn't stupid and at a decent level to take A Levels. I would check out things like coursework though - I knew one of my dd's was rubbish with coursework due to her SEN and would procrastinate and wind herself up into a frenzy even though predicted top grades from her teacher and exam work. We were very careful to check which A' Levels had chunks of coursework for this reason - she loves exams but freaks out when she has too much time and information in her head, particularly with the essay based subjects, as she sees links that don't need to be mentioned and loses word count etc. It might be worth checking if your dd is at all similar.

A few friends of my DS had grades like this (and slightly worse) and came out with things like CCC, BCE, ACC in their A levels. These were all enough to get onto a university course (maybe not their top choice) in their chosen subjects. All doing well now.

So I think it depends on your other options. I know people with lower grades than that who've come out with Distinctions in their BTECs, with quite a bit less work than their A Level counterparts.

What was maths grade for gcse? there’s a hefty dose of statistic and interpretation of data is psychology - a lot more maths based than people think.

Yes DS did the same with similar grades too. He struggled with sciences and maths and had to spend a lot of time on them at GCSE but when they went and he just had subjects he was interested in and was good at to do, he did much better. Some of his friends who did better at GCSE than him ( 8's and 9's) didn't do as well at A Level. From the things he and they have said and done over the years it seems to me that they didn't have to work that hard at GCSE so found the step up a bit of a shock. DS has has always had to put in huge amounts of effort to get ok grades so continued putting in a lot more work than some of his friends. So I think there are other factors at play that cannot be measured on an individual basis.