Flooding of state schools by ex indie students fails to materialise

[zaxxon]

An interesting story, given all the doomsaying we saw on here last year following the VAT policy change. It's great news that more families received their first choice of school this year.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Another media outlet has an FOIA with the LA I work for asking about private to state transfers. I've identified fewer than 10 from Jan 24 to present. This is a large city in the north and in year transfers.

The majority of parents who apply for private schools for Y7 entry also apply for state as a back up.

Therefore you won't see much of a difference until the second round of offers as potential private pupils will have both state and private offers at this stage. We're in an area with a relatively high number of private secondaries. DS got his 6th choice as we expected. In a normal year we'd expect to see a lot of waiting list movement, particularly in the big shuffle on reallocation day.
Hopefully this will still happen but we are worried that perhaps this year less places will be given up by families going private and DS will be in a school that will suit him less well than the one we'd like him to be offered.

How is this news? It’s way too early. Giving a full term notice means Easter is the first exit point and inter year admissions are nightmarish. I wouldn’t expect any change for another year ish.

Everyone I know whose children go to independent schools had all applied to state schools as well. So this is just normal. Too early to say anything. Will know better only when the new year starts.

The families of these children probably live in lovely homes but not anywhere near an outstanding school, it may actually be cheaper to ride it out and keep them at private school. In some parts of the country, a house move nearer to the best schools, can easily be another £200k on your mortgage.

Well, maybe it's too early to say, then. If there is a shift, let's hope it happens gradually, so the upheaval is minimised. I haven't seen an unusual amount of posts on MN from disappointed parents following allocation day, so that's got to be a good thing.

It’s only closed a handful of schools and has been running a full 9 weeks, this is great news. I think Brexit Britain has found another winner in introducing education tax. European parents must be looking at the U.K. and cursing EU rules from preventing their state from taxing their own children’s education.

Yes- and has been said a million times- the government lied when they said they would bring the VAT in in September 2025. By bringing it in mid-academic year they were cynically skewing the stats because it is much harder to change horses mid stream. many of us. Many many many said this was a deliberate attempt by the government to say 'see, no change'.

It was predicted.

Agreed.

Best bit is the introduction of VAT on the child-run tuck shop at DC’s school. Such a great way to earn some coin.

We are the envy of Europe!

Most other European countries have education systems that discourage or disincentivise private education. In France, for example, it is only for the very thick and very rich.

In my area the number applying & securing places at selective privates (high) is up not down. I've not heard of any dc leaving privates to join a comp at all; I have friends at a variety of schools

As a parent of a child at a specialist SEN school, wow.

Poor reporting as usual. It's too early and there was no mention of birth rates in that article.

IMO it will be very spread out, probably so much so that Labour and the Guardian will declare it a victory when they just look at pupil numbers. Except when all the new shiny teachers don't appear and everyone starts asking why the financial detail will give the true picture.

Private schools are not only having to increase fees through VAT but also due to increased NI and price increases across the board. Many will have to drop 'extras' and increase class sizes this will also lead to parents questioning value leading to a gradual decline in places. Of course we should also remember that all the shiny new teachers will mean more people will want to choose state.

Poor reporting as usual. It's too early and there was no mention of birth rates in that article.

A news report isn't meant to be a comprehensive summation and evaluation of a situation, compiled only after all the dust has settled. It's a snapshot of what's happening right now.

IMO it will be very spread out,

That seems like quite a good outcome to me. Systemic change without sudden disruption.

Beyond your telling language and tone, not really the case:
"In France, for example, it is only for the very thick and the very rich" - in fact, some of the French private schools are amongst the ones with stronger results.
"Most other European countries have an educational system that disincentivises private education" - only partially if you refer to the fact that the quality of the state education being better does not provide such an incentive to seek and alternative. In fact, many European countries actually support the private sector either to introduce choice and competition between the private and public sector (eg Denmark) or to cater for the lack of space / infrastructure in the state sector (Spain).

The doomsaying was always obvious nonsense. Private school pupils are only 7% of the population (although if you went by Mumsnet you'd think it was 70% 😂)most of them will be able to pay the increase so won't move schools.

That leaves a tiny amount of children who will easily be absorbed into regular schools, I think it was 2012? Where there was a baby boom and some schools had to make extra classes, they coped then and would of been able to cope now

There's already a long thread on this from yesterday OP: https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/education/5291082-no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils

Whoops - thanks @Mareleine !

@zaxxon Oh sorry I didn't mean that to come across as having a pop at you, I thought you might be interested as there's a lot of discussion on there. 😊

I think the important thing which I’m sure you’ll agree with me on, is that we limit education choices for parents as much as possible. Even if parents fund their child’s education totally themselves, we should seek to make it as difficult as possible for them to exercise any choice in the matter. Ideally (and I hope to see this one day) we don’t want any education choice for 4 to 18 year olds at all, it’s one size fits all and parents should be happy with that.

Of course it does. Was never going to happen.

Read lots of “oh, but wait until sixth form” comments on another thread. Ours were in independents. We moved them to state sixth forms because their offering was better, as did many parents. It’s always happened because most independents have very limited options.

You are missing the point, you shouldn’t have had the choice for your child’s education. It should be solely decided by the council or are you suggesting you know more about what is best for your children than the council?

FixItFi

You are missing the point, you shouldn’t have had the choice for your child’s education. It should be solely decided by the council or are you suggesting you know more about what is best for your children than the council?

Eh? Do you have the wrong poster? Not sure what your point is?

Of course parents have a choice over their child’s education.

The point is you shouldn’t have had the choice, your child’s education should be decided by the council. All education choice should be limited or totally removed for parents via taxation and the closure of schools. The Government knows what education best suits your child, it’s arrogant to assume otherwise.

😂 This is ace.