How oversubscribed are your local schools? Will they be able to take on students who are currently privately-educated?

[Macaroons]

One of the headline Starmer kept talking about is charging VAT for private schools. This would make private school fees unaffordable for many who are not mega-rich, pushing more students back to the state education system. Would the state schools be able to take in the extra students? Many schools are already over-subscribed, are there enough schools, classrooms and teachers to take in the extra students? My fear is that the extra VAT they get is not going to be enough to provide education for more students under the state system, as well as the additional 6500 teachers they claim they can provide.

The worse is that the move from private to state would be to the worst schools because the places in the best schools are taken in y7.
Unless they remortgage up to the roof and move in front of the best comprehensive securing top place on the waiting list but that can take 1-2 years

I read the manifesto cover to cover.

Where is the detailed plan for extra money for education?

They appear to be using the (now reduced) take from VAT on private schools to pay for a whole host of different things... new nurseries (£12k allocated for each...), 6,500 new specialist teachers (from where?), mental health specialist in every school - I'm assuming these will be full-time given the numbers needing help - do we have 25,000 mental health specialists waiting in the wings?

In addition the same pot of cash is paying for Youth Hubs, career services, CPD for HTs and teachers, early language development and reforming Ofsted.

It's the feeding of the 5,000...

never heard of detailed plan before any party in any country gained power, @OhCrumbsWhereNow
but page 4 say a lot.

and btw I will not vote Labour but LibDem

Anybody then ruthless Tories

Actually, I don't think this is correct. I know people from my daughter's primary who were offered Twickenham on NOD despite not having listed it (because we live about 5 miles and a 40 minute rush hour bus journey away). They were offered Twickenham because their application choices, which were nearer to them, were all filled with applications higher up the ranking and Twickenham had spaces. There were also some people who at the time had no offer, living even further away from Twickenham. It shakes out in the end (or it has done in the past) because close to 25% of children go private over the borough as a whole and so places become free, and by the time the autumn term comes round everyone has a place. But if the number of privately educated children drops considerably I can easily see there being a problem in future.

In the Richmond school places planning strategy, there seem to be around 75 empty Y7 places in secondary schools at the last published count (2022). This means that the schools at that point were 96.5% full for Y7.

I know people from my daughter's primary who were offered Twickenham on NOD despite not having listed it (because we live about 5 miles and a 40 minute rush hour bus journey away

Was it this year? This year All Preferences Met at Twickenham.But now, for those who wished to apply later ( e.g. didn't include Twickenham in preference list but had zero offers and have no school to go to), there is a waiting list at Twickenham school* *

There were also some people who at the time had no offer, living even further away from Twickenham.
The question is if they put Twickenham school as one of the preferences @AbsintheAndChips

If you do a little research you will see @Sirine1708 is right.. roughly the same number sat the exams in the Autumn for Tiffin - they publish this data on their website, although we don't know how many out of the 600 plus actually put Tiffin down on their application - that data will be available soon from Kingston council.

From looking at other other forums it does look like the wait list is moving more slowly this year than in previous years - although it looks like this may be down to admin failures if you read this threads on the eleven plus forum.

what has that got to do with what I said?

I will repeat: the TAX has not been imposed yet and Labour has not won yet. The impact of 20 perc VAT will be visible once it is implemented. Also, Tiffin is not the only grammar in UK

It is in Tiffin Boys that was the same number of applicants. I have not found data for Tiffin Girls

@TheChipmunkSong I am aware that the VAT has not been imposed yet - how could I not be with all these threads on MN with people getting their knickers in a twist about it.

I was responding to a post you made earlier.

The data for the girls is also available on their website if you're that interested. And yes I know they are not only grammars...People who send their children private plan in advance, years in advance, they don't send their children for one term and then pull them out because they suddenly can't afford it etc. - of course there will be the occasional exception but on the whole they plan! Hence, with most people agreeing that Labour will get in, I believe you would have started to see an impact, if there was going to be one. It will be very small if any at all. Let's see where we are in 12 months time.

@TheChipmunkSong No, not this year, a few years back. I was just pointing out that historically you might well have been offered Twickenham even if you didn't put it down and even if you listed six other schools that you were nearer to/had a chance of getting into. The people I know of at DD's primary had not listed Twickenham mainly because it was miles away and an awkward journey for them. They had all put down six other schools. Some were made offers on NOD and some (those further away) were not. It definitely wasn't the case as @NeverDropYourMooncup suggested that they had only put down super popular schools a long way away or only put down one highly unrealistic school.

If that is not happening this year, it suggests schools are considerably fuller than a few years ago so the normal process by which it all filters through and everyone ends up with a place in the end may be a lot longer and more difficult. It's not hard to see that in a borough which relies on 25% of children being privately educated and with less than 5% empty spaces may run into difficulties.

Also, 'all preferences met' doesn't necessarily mean the school is full. This is what it always used to say for DD's primary which used to be very unpopular and usually was not full even at the start of reception year (things are different now and it has developed a waiting list like lots of other primaries). What it means is that everyone who put it down was offered a place. The school might also be full as a result of other people being allocated to it, but not necessarily.

It is extremely vindictive and the fact that they are being so vague about it and only insinuating that they will implement it asap (as if punishing private school parents and upheaving so many young children is the most important time sensitive issue in the country!) just shows how nasty their politics of envy can get!

@northernerinthesouth2000

The data for the girls is also available on their website if you're that interested.
Please provide the link to that specific data. Thanks in advance

I am aware that the VAT has not been imposed yet - how could I not be with all these threads on MN with people getting their knickers in a twist about it.
Of course you do but it is relevant to my earlier post. I said that there will be increase in applicants to grammar schools as a result of putting VAT on private. And in response I hear that there is no more applicants than previous years. And my answer to it is: The VAT has not been imposed yet and Labour has not won yet. We will see the no of applicants after VAT comes. So it may be not in 2024/ exams as the registration is like now...

pull them out because they suddenly can't afford it

Did I mention anywhere pulling out? We are talking about Y7 choices. And I know many parents who planned to go private but decided otherwise because of the rising cost of living and private school prices going up

@AbsintheAndChips
No, not this year, a few years back. I was just pointing out that historically you might well have been offered Twickenham even if you didn't put it down and even if you listed six other schools that you were nearer to/had a chance of getting into.

Then you are correct then, Until recently Twickenham was the undersubscribed "overflow" school where all Richmond kids who didn't get a place among their preferences found a place.
But something changed this year and Twickenham has a waiting list. There are no undersubscribed schools at all now in our borough. It is really worrying as all schools ate meeting or exceeding PAN

OK then, let's do the maffs. I'm using example figures, rather than the specific amount being funded via GAG, as this varies at key stage, level of deprivation and location (plus many other factors in the NFF). The minimum amount for 2023-24 was a smidge under £6k per pupil.

1000 parents of children at private school paying £20k annually.

VAT comes in for September 2025. They therefore need to pay £24000. This would represent 1000 x £4000 = £4,000,000

10 of those parents move to state instead (1%). The tax received is therefore 990 x £4,000 = £3,960,000

The amount paid per child is (just under) £6000. They therefore cost the DfE £60,000 to educate in a standard school.

Net gain from introducing VAT is therefore £3,960,00 - £60,000 = £3,900,000.

If 10% leave (so 100 children), that's 900 x £4000 = £3,600,000.

The amount paid is £6000. They therefore cost the DfE £600,000 to educate in a standard school.

The Government's still three mil up on the deal, as they're getting a net of £3,600,000 - £600,000 = £3,000,000.

Lots of people send their children private all the way from reception to 16, so yes I think people might 'pull' their children out if they thought they couldn't afford the additional costs as a result of VAT. But my point here is that often private school parents have to plan this years in advance and as I said I doubt this policy will have that much of an impact - especially when you add in decreasing birth rate. As I said let's see where we are in 12 months.. who knows anything could happen, Labour might not get that massive majority, although I doubt it.

splendid but what has that got to do with what I have written?

The rising cost of living + job insecurity ( job market is awful) + not rising salaries are not added to your equation. Uncertainty of the economy is a huge component

Fewer parents of Y6 will decide on private—the middle class. Not the very affluent people but middle class that hesitate

also the gov will have to invest in school expansions to accommodate the kids

@TheChipmunkSong "Fewer parents of Y6 will decide on private—the middle class. Not the very affluent people but middle class that hesitate"

That might not necessarily be a bad thing, maybe they will be more invested in improving the state sector.

And the government should be investing in new state schools / upgrading schools especially given the RAAC scandal

Not at all, our eldest son is in a class that was 12 at start of year and is 16 at the end of it.

A very good school too. It's just a shame that under those fuckwits in the Tory government young families have been priced out for miles around. The average age of parents in a reception class must be early 40s, and that includes a fair few in their 50s.

That might not necessarily be a bad thing, maybe they will be more invested in improving the state sector.

in what way? they will stimulate further segregation by driving the property market up the roof e.g in my borough

Property prices are a different issue in my opinion, yes it’s linked to schools but much more complex.

If we want to avoid segregation then we need to get rid of private schools altogether but that’s a whole new thread which I have not got the time for 😂

well you want to eradicate the capitalism lol

Nor do we tbh…..

@TheChipmunkSong @Seasaltlady 😂😂😂I'm sorry I'm just a radical lefty and I just can't help myself! 😂

as the history of Eastern Europe shows the great lefty idea doesn't work in practice because human consciousness is not evolved to avoid corruption.A generated by greed scarcity is a problem

@TheChipmunkSong thanks for the history lesson!😜

For you history for me reality and experience.