How oversubscribed are your local schools? Will they be able to take on students who are currently privately-educated?

[Macaroons]

One of the headline Starmer kept talking about is charging VAT for private schools. This would make private school fees unaffordable for many who are not mega-rich, pushing more students back to the state education system. Would the state schools be able to take in the extra students? Many schools are already over-subscribed, are there enough schools, classrooms and teachers to take in the extra students? My fear is that the extra VAT they get is not going to be enough to provide education for more students under the state system, as well as the additional 6500 teachers they claim they can provide.

@TheChipmunkSong sorry you got me on blind spots in the Richmond borough, I'm yet trying to find any not covered by less desirable schools' catchment, 1hr+ away both from twickenham school, richmond academy and Hounslow schools. Is it in the west, east, north or south of the borough?

NRTF rest of TF in full so apologies if others have also gone on to say similar but in cases like my autistic daughter’s, the SEN manifests itself primarily as ‘SEMH’ (social, emotional and mental health) difficulties. DD has had a shocker starting at secondary and we have tried so hard to stay in the state sector but of course we couldn’t get an EHCP for her because the focus is on academics. She’s currently at an online school and we will have to pay the extra VAT. I can’t say I find that particularly fair when we would love her to attend the ‘outstanding’ school she just left but with proper support alongside her friends - but she simply couldn’t cope, the school can’t provide what she needs and the LA could not give less of a shit.

Have you read my previous post at all? The statutory 45min of commute + free access to school
It is not about the distance in miles but the commute via bus. Imagine traffic rush hours. How long it will take from Hampton Wick to get to the e.g. Twickenham school or Richmond school. There is no direct bus and it requires changing bus.

Also, the school not only accepts the kids from Richmond Borough but from surrounding boroughs as long as the child lives close enough to be accepted.

For example we selected the school outside of the Richmond borough because it is best option with a good commute.

The children from Kew Gardens historically had and have a problem with finding school place.

Looking at blind spot is wrong because people often do not apply to the closest school for various reasons. Therefore school allocation is often not for the kids who live the closest but for those who live closest and APPLY to this school.

I would have been nearly 10 and at the end of my 1st year of middle school when Thatcher was elected, so most of my state school education was under the Tories, and in classes of over 30, and I can remember some very lazy teaching methods which I don't think teachers/schools would get away with now.

On class sizes, the system of state school funding means that if schools don't have the class sizes they're funded for - in my London borough I think this is 30 at primary and 27 at secondary - they are going to be really struggling with budgets - and this will mean a lot of stuff gets cut to keep things together. Budgets being devolved to schools and most of the central school support within local authorities being cut entirely or outsourced/run with arms length management and lots of freelance consultants doesn't help matters. Nor does allowing/encouraging the establishment of state funded academy chains and free schools - and not allowing local authorities to set up community schools to meet needs such as SEN.

In short, many of the problems facing state schools are a result of Tory policies since 2010 (but there were also issues under Labour).

I have no issue with VAT on private school fees, but I would like to see a really different way of thinking about public sector finance - saying that if you are elected to government there won't be any more borrowing means the squeeze will go somewhere else. I would prefer there to be more honest direct borrowing by government at lower interest rates and with less associated costs and money spinning opportunities for the private sector, rather than families being forced into increasing debt for housing, food shopping, bills, childcare, higher education.....

I love a bit of consistency….

https://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/national/patients-turning-to-private-healthcare-is-second-tax-says-labour-health-chief-109967/

paying for private healthcare when there is a state option is an extra tax in itself (also without VAT)

paying for private education should have VAT added…..

@HooverIsAlwaysBroken they would be happy to be consistent if not for the nhs waiting lists where you simply don't have an alternative in you whole town. And probably bigger % of people use private dentists and consultants than send their kids to private schools and prices are already overinflated.

@Sirine1708 so following this argument through, it is ok if wealthy people survive and poor people die (cancer treatment) but it is not ok that wealthy people send their children to independent schools?

@HooverIsAlwaysBroken I don't think this policy is about fairness, it's just Labours trying to get sympathy from their base without extra spendings.
VAT on private healthcare would allow their competitors to accuse them of increasing NHS waitlists and everyone is very sensitive about it right now.
On a personal level I don't think it's fair for high earners to pay tens or hundred of thousands in taxes and still having to rely on private healthcare in a "1st world country" and Labours definitely not the ones who are going to fix it.

Does not look like this policy is going to make that much of a difference. The impact to private schools and state schools will most likely be small. Number of private school pupils rises despite claims families priced out by Labour’s VAT plan | Private schools | The Guardian

The number of pupils in private schools is raising but not from UK kids. Foregin children.
https://monitor.icef.com/2019/05/one-third-of-foreign-students-in-british-independent-schools-come-from-europe/

@TheChipmunkSong that article is over 3 years old and is not relevant in this context - as private schools have always had international students going back many many many years. So the point remains - until you can give me updated statistics to show the rise discussed in the article I posted is only down to international students.

If Labour get in, and do actually go through with this (I strongly doubt it personally), it will make private schools even more elitist than they already are.

https://studytravel.network/magazine/news/0/30626#:~:text=International%20students%20accounted%20for%204.7,census%2C%20the%202024%20data%20shows.

There was a drop in pupils from China but now it is growing again.

@TheChipmunkSong interesting. However, I will reserve judgement as this still doesn’t show that the increase in numbers is all the result of international students. It will be an interesting few months but I don’t think we will know the real impact of the policy until at least 12 months after it’s implemented.

I doubt that people will massively move children from private to state due to 20% of tax increase. The private schools will also try to remedy it by not giving as many bursaries but helping families who cannot afford an additional 20%

However, an additional 20% on top of fees as it is now, WILL impact the number of children who join in Y7. I know quite a few parents who were very much hesitating and for them, private education was on the verge of affordability.
As a result, there will be even more candidates for grammar schools and people will be moving to the areas where the state schools are good, driving at the same time property prices up.

If the state system will absorb it?... yes, as there are many undersubscribed schools, I think it will need to build new schools in few places or expand the existing ones in some areas like my borough.

@TheChipmunkSong Tiffin this year had the same amount of applications as usual, the only difference this year is fewer people from waiting list getting in.

@hellesbells It is an issue of interest to me and I believe to some other people too, hence I started this discussion. If you don't want to join the discussion, no one is forcing you to read nor comment... feel free to skip. I don't understand why you are asking me to stop making threads about it. Isn't this a place to discuss secondary education? 🤔

Because 20 perc tax was not imposed yet. And where do you have data from? I heard something opposite

@TheChipmunkSong applications number from tiffin website and waitlist movement from 11+ forum.
I have a feeling that parents who can't afford 20% increase will not decline Tiffin's place for 2024/25.

but no one would be turned down a placement

Because that is the law. Councils have a duty to provide school places for all who apply. It doesn't mean they're awash with spare places.

There will be localities where there are difficulties. The national trend of falling rolls does not apply evenly across the entire country

I've listened to the fact check on this and there are sufficient places overall to absorb every British resident currently at a private school, a few specific areas may need to create extra classes but most areas have spaces within their lea area to absorb. The parents might not like the schools on offer but there is space.

Tiffin boys fell from Outstanding to Good last year + 2013 year had lower no of kids population than previous years.

I heard a hearsay about Tiffin girls that the no of applications was more than ever.

I think that tax will impact the no of candidates to any grammar

a few specific areas may need to create extra classes

Exactly

How many areas? How many places? How quickly? How much building land is available in those places? Who pays?

This isn’t a little problem in the areas that are affected

...or build new schools. Where I live there is no capacity for extra classes. Schools are massively oversubscribed.

There is also a risk that, over time, this leads to more ghettoisation of areas rather than less. If you have a couple of good private schools in an area with poor state schools, then those private schools help attract money into the area. If those private schools ultimately close, then wealthier families are likely to gradually stop living in those areas. I'm not claimimg that this is is going to have a sudden or dramatic impact. But - particularly in more rural areas - there's no doubt that the existence of good private schools 'allows' wealthier and more aspirational families to live locally, and also provides significant employment. This might not benefit the local state schools specifically - but it does benefit the local economy. Those rather gleefully claiming that private school parents forced out of private will have to accept schools they 'might not like' - in many cases, certainly in the longer term, they won't - they'll move.