Talk me down re school choice

[Schoolunsure2]

Hello, sorry it's a long one but I'm really stuck.

2 DDs, yr5 and 3, both exceptionally bright, wanting to be doctors/ engineers etc. Eldest talented all rounder, v musical and sporty, youngest not so much but probably brighter with maths.

We're all v happy in our house and don't want to move. Moving to a better catchment area would cost more than private school x2 (in SE).

The local school (walkable)has a v caring reputation, good for SEN. But, having looked at GCSEs, only 30% get 5s in maths and English, and only 68% of those with high prior achievement get 5s, which I think is really disappointing.

Other school in catchment is a short bus ride away, much better for bright kids (especially girls) but has a bad rep for bullying.

There is a girls' grammar but that's 40 minutes away by bus, exceptional results but lots of stress and pressure.

I know it's sensible to just send them to the local school where they will be fine. But it will be so hard for them to get top grades there.

There are a few local private schools but it would be a real stretch.

There is a wildcard of a top public school half an hour drive away who have offered both scholarships but this would still cost us £20k a year and absorb any future pay rises/ inheritance and leave us really tight, plus kids would have no local friends.

Any advice greatly appreciated
Thanks

@A580Hojas I know it sounds a bit ridiculous, I've obviously got rose- tinted glasses as I think they're exceptional, but maybe not in the grand scheme. Realistically I do think they will need peer support to get top grades.

If they are exceptionally bright, I would definitely do grammar, unless you have a reason to think your DCs would not be suited to a high pressure environment or the school in question is especially high pressure.
I chose not to send mine to grammars in the next town (50 mins away) and now they are older, I do often wonder how it would have gone (if they had got in, this was in no way certain!). They are super happy in their mixed comp (similar to yours), local friends and doing well. Top set kids at the comp are aiming high, and although there is a large number not achieving 5s in maths and English (there is a high proportion of English as a second language kids there), there are also a good chunk of 9s and 8s and those kids do tend to gravitate together.
It's not a straightforward decision.

@TheColorIndigo thank you, that's really helpful. It sounds like you made the right choice and I would have done the same. The one near us makes negative progress for the high prior achievers and only 70% of them got their English and maths at a 5, which to me just seems like they're not equipped for supporting bright kids. And whilst English and maths are streamed, the other subjects aren't so there will be a high proportion of kids with lower attainment levels in these classes so it could be even harder to push the bright ones.

@TheColorIndigo @Schoolunsure2
Often the EAL DC do very well in schools. Lots of them just value education more. There’s plenty of evidence in London that EAL Dc are doing exceptionally well. Better than the more established Dc.

I would also add that it’s useful to have bright Dc who are in the same class/sets with your Dc but quality of teaching is also absolutely key. As you can see from data, not all bright Dc do as well as they could. Teaching can be too slow/boring or set at the wrong level of challenge.

If Dc do want a competitive career or university, you need the right advice, ethos and atmosphere. So one bit of info that might be useful is destinations of leavers. Where do they aspire to? Also numbers getting 7,8,9 grades at gcse tell you a lot. 5/6 not so much. When you have a comp performing pretty poorly it’s unlikely there will be 30 grammar school stream Dc and I think you said the high performers were not doing as well as they could. My local grammars are all positive progress 8 and mostly high achievers get into them (not 100% though).

That's right, only 70% of high prior attainment get English and maths at a 5, and their progress 8 is -0.25. The mix of kids is positive in lots of ways but only if the school can still push the clever ones, or even keep them at the level they started at!

I am attaching data for a grammar. It’s not in Bucks but just over the border in Berkshire. Look at the EAL stats. So many schools are able to get a positive P8 from bright Dc regardless of background. I’m sure this school has quite a mix. The school gets 84% 7-9 gcse. Yes, it’s a grammar (not super selective) but you should be able to get similar data for your local schools.

I moved to an area where everyone living in the catchment area gets into the school. It wasn’t a top school but a good solid school, I didn’t want the stress of worrying about secondary schools.

Given what you’ve said, I think in your shoes I’d be prepping for the grammar (first choice) and perhaps the private option as back up. Private is always going to look lovelier, but there are downsides, many of which have been alluded to already.

something else to consider (if they want to do medicine) is whether a private education will be an advantage when it gets to university applications. In the interests of levelling up most private schools have seen their Oxbridge numbers reduce significantly, while good state schools have seen an increase. If your kids will do well at the grammar, that might be best in the long term.

@Radiatorvalves high performing grammars are treating very similarly to private selective schools by Universities contextualising results. It is irrelevant that one is private and one not, it's all about the norm of performance within a school.

Ok. Well ignore that comment from me.

OP I have three bright daughters. Our mantra has always been to start as local as possible and move them at any point that they are not flourishing (similar to you there are some v mediocre Indies, a top indy and a variety pack of single sex and mixed grammars within 45 mins from us.)

Eldest now year 11 and so far we haven't moved any of them. They are so happy and flourishing at their 'good enough' state schools. We supplement with lovely educational holidays, experiences, extra curricular and tutors at any moment any of them are showing a) a particular interest or b)that they need extra support.

I feel they are so privileged to have lots of local friends whose houses they can walk to, to attend a school where the society inside reflects what they will find outside the school gates as adults, and to know that they will be able to state educate their own children with happy results (I was privately educated from age 4 and am ashamed to say I thought that people could never get good grades/be good at sports/arts/crafts/at a state school until I was 'unintoctrinated' at Uni and met some of the most talented and well adapted people I had ever met.)

At the end of the day you need to go with what you think will make them happy - for us it was good mental health, not too much external stress, lots of friends and an active social life and good enough academics, which pointed to the local secondary. Others would have looked at the same equation and prioritised other things ie high academic success at an early age (I believe in slow burning instead, horses for courses).

@Radiatorvalves it’s a totally logical assumption to make, particularly as there is so much talk about widening participation and state schools. Grammars are just a bit of an anomaly because of their selective nature.
OP we went the grammar school route and no regrets. I have one DC in second year medical school and DC2 applying for med school this year.

@soweneo I agree with everything you've said. The issue is for me that our local school's results are really low for clever kids, if they were on par with the other state schools in the area I wouldn't have a problem at all. But I am really torn for all the reasons you have put.

@Radiatorvalves thank you that's helpful, but you're right, it's such a lot of money to then potentially disadvantage them in some ways. I'm sure the kids would rather a hefty house deposit!

OP I have not found my DCs’grammars to be hothouses at all. They have both totally thrived, had loads of extracurriculars, had great social lives and have also excelled academically. A lot depends on the fit of the school with the DC but mine certainly had a very balanced time.

@opoponax that does sound great. We do a lot of music and sport outside of school so it would be lovely to have a school that encourages it. It is very competitive though so I'm wary of setting any hearts on it.

@Schoolunsure2
If you don't want them to do the long journey at such a young age then another idea it to do the local state for year's 7&8 and then move them to the top Indy for Year 9 if aren't flourishing or achieving academically. Plenty of movement from state to private at this stage. Nothing is ever set in stone. This can work quite well as some children get bored at same school from Year 7-13.

Is it super selective? We were not sure what to do about secondary as, like you, all options were open. Both DC were very bright but it’s hard to see what their true potential is when they are still young. I didn’t want to tutor but I did take DC1 to a very well respected local tutor just for an unprepped CAT assessment to see where he was placed to help our decision making. That clarified things a lot and we knew where he would fit best, whether state or private. Our comprehensive options were really bad and we discounted them as we felt that although academically he would probably achieve regardless, it would have been a very unpleasant learning environment. We went through the same process with DC2 and her CAT score was within one mark of DC1’s, which again helped a lot.

@Schoolunsure2
The grammars in my LA all take sport seriously but loads of DC do different sports outside school. However if Dc are good at sport, they will be wanted for school
teams so you have to decide which sports matter most in the end and how you weave everything together. Our grammars also have talented musicians and orchestra etc. Many of the other schools don’t due to lack of numbers. Choirs ditto. The grammar should have plenty on offer for Dc. My old grammar still takes sport very seriously! I think Dc have to decide, in the end, what they can manage.

it’s also simply not true that bright Dc do well anywhere. You can see huge variations in progress 8 for high achievers. Some go backwards. If you are ok with that and possibly fewer Dc to work with at their level and pace, that might be a nice cosy feeling but if few ever get to top flight universities or get onto competitive courses, it’s going to be down to you to push them. The school might be happy enough for them to coast.

There’s also a difference in local schools as I’ve shown with the secondary moderns in my area. They are far from being comps but are well supported by parents because they are decent schools. However Oxbridge and medicine are not on the horizon for the Dc there, judging by destinations. So you need to be with the brightest I think. The grammars here have seen plenty going to Oxbridge. They are state educated Dc and they still might be first to university or on fsm.

I do think the grammar will be with the most like minded kids and families, which would hopefully be a positive experience for them.

I would go with the private school on a scholarship or the grammar I don't think 45 door to door is that bad.
I'm not sure why posters are saying that if your kids are bright then they will do fine at the local school. The figures you have posted plainly show that lots of bright children who go to this school don't even come out with very average GCSE results, let alone good ones. Even if they do 'well' in this school it sounds like achieving well could be a mix of As and Bs, when they could be capable of As and A stars.

@3WildOnes thank you, I appreciate your advice. I think we will try for the grammar and have another look at the private. If it doesn't work out at least we can say we tried and just do our best with the state schools. I think I'll always wonder 'what if?' if we don't try.

@Schoolunsure2
My DD is also year 5 and we're in an almost identical situation. The local school gets similar results to yours and when we viewed it a couple of weeks ago my heart sank. What I hated was the attitude of the staff. One even said we know we let the right children down but it's fine as we all do it!
We're now looking at the grammar about 40 mins away as private is not an option for us.

@TVandwine what's the grammar near you like? I just read a review of the one near us that says the girls' mental health is poor and anxiety and EDs are rife and I'm so worried!

@Schoolunsure2 There are two grammars, both of which are academically great but from what I hear one of them is very pressurised and I know a child who is very unhappy there. The other has a much greater emphasis on pastoral care and it's the school that most people aim for.