A happy Mothers Day to us all !
I actually design and manage complex algro's for large financial organisations. So hopefully my insight might be of some modest value. My DS got an offer as you all know from the school we wanted, but also as you know feed back was that one section was weak, a section which DS is without doubt very good at in over the last 2/3 years of prep-school testing. So that has make me question the data, as so many of you have, not only as a mum but also professionally.
Interesting that you discovered @Drminime that Atom manually rebalanced data from Vietnam, because we noticed issues with Atom. So as a team we set up a series of dummy accounts with Atom and worked out pretty well the algo behind it. But always found further issues, the conclusion we came up with was that there must me a manual process somewhere as well. So well done @Drminime.
On to ISEB and the issues some have experienced. My take on this is that the error has occurred in one or a combination of areas. But this will not have had an impacted on all childrens results. (I have written this in the most simple of terms, so that terminology does not confuse)
(1) Some of the questions in the question bank are not age specific, it is 13+ instead of 11+ or has been incorrectly sub divided in the question bank pool of data.
(2)This leads to the adaptive randomiser pulling up questions from the pool that is incorrect for the test.
(3) Incorrect recording of some pupils selected answers to questions, this is likely, as there was a vast increase in users this year and how the interface would work will be prone to issues.
(4) When they ran the data analysis the algo corrupted some of the data, giving false outcomes, again likely and happens.
In a algo, that manages financial products, we are obsessed with focusing on the error factors when we are back testing. As even the smallest error has an enormous financial impact.
For other organisation (non-financial) they will never have the resources to invest that much money, man power or operating system capacity to ensure that there are no errors....hence @Drminime stating that Atom were using a team in Vietnam..it's cheaper!
So what is my conclusion?
There is always a correlation within possible outcomes. In this case the CAT4 scores that prep schools have or the internal data that schools have with teachers professional appraisals should be very closely correlated with the ISEB data. Even allowing for a 'bad day', that difference should not be more than 5% or 5-6 points and over an average of the the 4 ISEB sections less than 5 points.
What some are experiencing is vastly more than that, that does not happen in a well managed process which has been back tested. Some one here said that the ISEB team were working remotely. That combined with the huge increase in demand in a very short period of time, has clearly led to a processing issue for some pupils.
ISEB do not allow any transparency nor are they accountable to any regulatory organisation. Yet it seems for some, many senior schools have take ISEB's data as gospel and ignored all the tried and tested available data supplied by prep schools.