Thread 8 Carry on Corona Cohort: GAV give us the CAG?

[OrangeCinnamon1]

Welcome all to the 8th Thread for this year's GCSE cohort the Corona Cohort!

Some of us have been here since I started first thread back in yr10, some will be new. Everyone has been friendly and helpful in the past. It is hoped this will continue. Going forward we intend to stay in secondary so any new threads should have 'GCSE Summer 2020 Thread # : Carry on Corona Cohort' in title just to make it easier to find.

From now on our DS/DD may go down various paths so we decided not to be exclusionary and stay right here in Secondary until HQ chuck us
At this precise moment in time we are awaiting GCSE results that seem to have been produced by an algorithm that also takes very little account of Teacher Centre Assessed Grades. There is an appeal process but it was changed yesterday to include mock results and coursework, then taken down again for review.
Trying to protect our young people's mental health.during this shit show , which the government claims is their priority...when they talk about wanting students back in schools/college in September...

first ever thread

previous thread

I’ve emailed my MP this morning. The guy is a complete prick though - and a Tory - so I doubt I’ll get a satisfactory response.

'Tweak the algorithm' - good grief, and so restart the whole sorry mess with a new set of results that are unfair and inaccurate to a different set of pupils because the algorithm cannot guess how a pupil would have fared in a real-life exam. No thanks.

I agree the problem is not this particular algorithm, it's the decision to use an algorithm in the first place.

Another interesting article. This time The Spectator

www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-government-should-have-trusted-teachers-on-exams/amp?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR1Y0uSy8d76Ay4QaGARLnS-wYfqCZHAaF9INJjblIvT9FonH6MIpNb1lfY

I hope things will unfold swiftly today. Now this:

The Greater Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham, is to write to England’s exams regulator to initiate legal action over the A-level results process.

Labour need to sort Wales to have currency.
Apparently Mr 'Self Help' himself Iain Duncan-Smith has called for CAGs to be used.

I see Ofqual is fighting back now! Their job to implement government policy which is changing every 12 to 24 hours...Good for them.

The government is responsible for this mess and need to fix it.

There are lots of algorithms that could have been produced that would have done better than the one we have. But they all should have had a check against CAG (so no movement of more than 1 grade) and schools should have had access to them way before students so they could appeal any real bizarreness. Which would mean we needed an appeal process too.

But I can't see how at this point there is any solution other than to award CAGs and accept both grade inflation and that some schools will have assessed higher than others.

The algorithm method has lost credibility. If my DS loses 1 grade in each of his 9 subject, I will go ballistic.

Just saw on twitter 😂

"People weren't able to drive during lockdown so I've written an algorithm to send speeding tickets to random drivers based on historic speeding records in their area."

For once I will be glad to be back at work tomorrow as I’m hoping to be too busy to stress myself into a gibbering wreck. Am barely sleeping and DH and I are struggling to stay positive in front of DS. Still awaiting reply from Tory MP after last week’s email. Will be sending another one soon.

I'm not impressed by members of the Ofqual standards advisory group coming out of the woodwork now. They were either consulted or not, neither is good !

Ofqual must have run the algorithm using CAGs in the first place, before deciding to ignore the CAGS, so they could easily revert back to those grades. That way, no one would move more than one grade from the CAG - a decent compromise?

@Wheresthebeach - yes, you are right. The government has decided a 12% upwards movement in grades for the yeargroup cannot take place and Ofqual have to ensure it doesn't take place (but Ofqual are responsible for the inaccurate, unfair and unethical way they have gone about achieving that).

If the government would accept that an increase of 12% in overall grades at the whole-year level is actually the only solution without an exam paper to show who would have underperformed, all of this mess would go away.

The need for exactly the same overall grade levels compared to 2019 does not outweigh the horrendous outcomes at an individual level.

Just written again to the first minister and my MS reminding them that they are Labour politicians currently presiding over a massive injustice which seems to be disproportionately affecting already disadvantaged students.

@singingstones - fantastic twitter comparison! Spot-on.

@Alsoplayspiccolo - we can't accept a situation that limits any downgrading to 1 grade because to achieve the same results as 2019 based on CAGs, for GCSEs that probably means every single pupil getting 1 grade less in every single subject.
I am basing that on the predicted downgrading currently of 80% of GCSE grades and that includes pupils whose grades will have gone down by 2 or more grades.
They currently have 2 million GCSE downgrades coming on Thursday.
If we say we will accept a 1 grade downgrade, they will do that to every single grade for every single pupil.

Plus surely by downgrading every pupil by 1 grade we end up with no one getting. 9?

I thought that boundary was usually too 2-3%? So how do you decide who gets to remain in that top barrier?

it's all such a headache ! Why couldn't they trust the schools submitted CAGs with some audit process in place ?

I recognise even with CAGS there will be disappointments but , for me , it has more assurances.

@neutralintelligence Agree the algorithm is a nightmare, but I don't see how any system could fairly predict which kids would have a mare on the day of an exam and underperform. So the overarching government policy of no grade inflation, which sounds reasonable on the surface, is the base of the issue.

I think the reason some private schools haven't been downgraded as much is due to small size, and having a history of insanely high results to give a buffer.

Surely Boris can't swan off on holiday during this mess?

@Wheresthebeach I think we agree!

Grades based on CAGs/predictions will be slightly higher overall, but still entirely fair and accurate at the individual level.
That is because there has been no exam to mark, re-mark and moderate.
They are trying to moderate a best-guess. The best-guess is bad enough, if you moderate it, it just gets worse.

Neutral where is your 80% from? I thought it was 40%.

The algorithm needs to be abandoned and it is too late to talk to the centres who over-bid now. Restricting downgrades to 1 grade movement from CAG would be an obvious start with minimal impact - at A level 3% went down 2 grades and 0.2% down 3 grades or more, which should never have been allowed by somebody with half a brain checking the output of the algorithm!

@OrangeCinnamon1

it's all such a headache ! Why couldn't they trust the schools submitted CAGs with some audit process in place ?

I recognise even with CAGS there will be disappointments but , for me , it has more assurances.

Yes. I trust ds school 100%. He had some surprise mocks (as in way above expected) and I trust that they may feel it's because those questions were perfect for ds on day rather than pure ability and that they'll look overall (in one subject every in house assessment was a grade below mock and in another a grade above and ds cocked up mock by not leaving enough time for a longer question)

This is why I want to know his CAG. I believe this will be most accurate - but like I say his school I trust 100%.

I heard 40% for A levels, but about 80% changed grades for GCSEs (expected, because we won't know for sure until Thursday). Guardian reported 80-something percent and 2 million.