GCSEs Summer 2020 (thread 4) -the final countdown

[PostNotInHaste]

Thread 3
Thread 2
Thread 1(year 10)

Hope OrangeCinnamon doesn’t mind me starting another in her absence , feel twitchy without ! Apologies in advance if I have messed the links up.

The last thread ended with discussion of possible school closures, not really what we want to hear at this point - let’s hope things sound more positive as thread progresses.

Proggy, DD's told me that her year were told they won't get less than their most recent "working at" grades, if that helps?

@alsoplayspiccolo I’m very glad to hear that. It will be awful if kids end up with grades lower than their mocks, the effect of averaging things out, although, that could also work in favour of those who didn’t do towell in their mocks but had decent in year assessments. I now don’t know what system would make it fair.

OK, this is based on mocks and most recent realistic predicted grades.

Maths: 7
English Language: 6
English Literature: 6
Physics: 6
Chemistry: 8
Biology: 8
German: 7
History: 7
Computing: 8
PRE: 5

If he gets those grades, he and I will be happy and he will be able to do his first choice of A-level subjects.

Apart from Maths (which does need to be 7+), even if every subject is one grade lower than the above, he'd still be able to do the courses he wants to do.

Good idea - thanks for the suggestion re our own predictions for them. Like @Tumbleton these are based on combination of mocks and predicted grades:

English Language 6
English Literature 6
Maths 7
Physics 7/8
Chemistry 7
Biology 7 (possibly a 6 if unlucky)
History 8
Computer Science 8
Spanish 6

With biology and physics I find it harder to call it - DS worked at a steady 8 for biology throughout years 10 and 11, but is predicted a 6 and only achieved 6 in the mock (was ill on exam day). In physics he is predicted 7, has been working at 8 and got 9 in the mock, so who knows on that one!

But like yours @Tumbleton if he only gets his predicted grades (with no allowance made for improvement during y10 and 11) he’d get 6 x 6 and 3 x 7, which are more than enough to do what he wants for A level.

It will be interesting to see how close everyone gets!

My guess for dd would be:

RS 9
History 9
Geography 9
English Lang 9
English Lit 8
Spanish 8
Chemistry 8
Maths 8
Biology 7

But the Maths and Chemistry might come out lower. This is the school where 55-60% of GCSE grades were 9s the last 2 years (more in some subjects) but they don’t really use GCSE grades in school so we’re a bit in the dark. Her latest English Lit essay was graded an A (-) which is apparently really good?!

@proggymat Thank you - I always like to post links to opinion more expert than mine!

I based my predictions on the "professional prediction" in her snapshot report and her more recent results. For instance her Maths teacher predicted a 6 and she got a 6 in the mock they did recently. So it seems very likely that he'll give her a 6 - there doesn't really seem any reason for the grade to be anything else.

Her RS teacher told the class that the school's predictions are usually very accurate so they will have the data from previous years to prove they can get this right! It's a massive, outstanding (both OFSTED officially and in reality) comprehensive so I think OFQUAL is very unlikely to question what they come up with. I trust their judgement completely - if she wants to get a better grade in something she'll have to sit the Autumn exam.

I hope most schools are realistic and submit realistic grades. That way OFQUAL can tock off most of them fairly easily and have time tolook really hard at those submissions that don't fit the normal school data . That way if there is a "freakily good" cohort in an unfancied school they can get the credit they deserve

@flyingpandas Why wouldn’t his predicted grades contain any allowance for improvement in those years, isn’t that the whole point?

@Shimy a good point, I’m hoping they do adjust upwards but trying to be conservative to manage expectations-his and mine!

@HPFA I also meant to thank you for that link. I think that’s the most measured and reassuring article I’ve read so far!

@flyingpandas Thank you, it's a really good blog, the author is quite a bit to the left of me (and I'm quite lefty!) so I don't always agree with his opinions but he always argues his case incredibly well. I suspect he was a terrific teacher.

Please all be mindful not just about the grades needed to do A’levels but also the grades needed to study their preferred course at university (if they have any idea at the moment). The course DS wants study for instance at e.g Warwick, you can do any subjects for A’level but need a minimum of a grade 7 in GCSE Maths. Sometimes this is overlooked and it can be quite a shock when suddenly realising this important overlooked fact at application stage.

Sorry, Post, I missed your earlier question to me.

Unfortunately, yesterday's PAYE workers retention help from the government doesn't apply to DH and me, as we are both freelance; so far, the only help we might qualify for is Universal Credit. However, I understand from what I've heard about today's CV briefing that plans are being made for workers in the same position as us, so fingers crossed.

@HPFA
Nee Bosh!
Tn

That’s a northern term for ‘there’s no need to say thank you’. Dog jumped on my knee!

Oh goodness Piccolo I am sorry, I know a fair few people in your position, fingers crossed for something next week, take care.

Hmm what do I think DS might get?

English Literature - 7 maybe 8
English language - 6 maybe 7
Maths - 7. Capable of 8. Would probably have got with an exam
Physics - 8
Biology 7. Maybe 6
Chemistry. 6. Maybe 7
RE - 8
Geography - 7. Maybe 8
PE - hopefully a 9. Might be an 8
Music - 9. I think he’d want to resit if it wasn’t
Spanish - maybe 5. More likely 4

My guess for DS

Biology 9 (got gold in biology challenge)
PE 9 (practicals scored high)
Latin 9
Physics 8
Spanish 7
Chemistry 7
Maths 7
Geography 8
English Lang 5
English Lit 6

Mainly based on mocks & feedback from parents evening before half-term. His English has been adrift for a while, not an essay writer it seems. He's said he'll be thrilled if gets 3 9s. Wants to do maths & sciences.

impressed with the Latin 9.

It's an optimistic guess! Based on 9 in mock & 90+% in a test last week. Teacher desperate for him to do it at A level and he enjoys it but thinks next stage more like English Lit.

I’m going to guess a 9 for Maths and Spanish, maybe a couple more 9’s, otherwise 8’s. He has been predicted an 8 all along for English language but in the mock they all got low marks, think he got a 5 or 6, which is much lower than any other papers he’s done. He had a new teacher and they all said he was a harsh marker. But he’s said if he gets less than a 7 he will resit.

What do they do now? What work will school set? Do you think they might get them started on looking at some A level work (if doing A levels). I’m going to encourage my DS to start looking at Maths A level. Because he’s doing maths and further maths and his school do the whole content of maths in year 12 and sit the exam at the end, then whole of further maths in year 13 with exam at end. So I think he could make a start even if the school don’t set that. Anyone got any idea of good resources for that? He is doing PE and Spanish A levels too

Yes I think DD’s school have said they’ll start them on A Level subjects. She’s not staying and the History course at her sixth form options will be different but it would work for RS and Psychology. I hope they do that as it might make the transition easier.

Sadly the school seem to have just cut my daughter loose.

I had an email from her Head of House today saying they had all the data they need for dd, she doesn't need to do anything... thank you for all my support over the past years and goodbye.

Ho hum.

Although she is intending to go back for A levels.

In the real world my son took his GCSEs two years ago. A few kids got some 9s. Most of his friends got 5s, 6s and 7s at grammer school. Only on MN do all of the kids get 9s. just weird. Remember a 4 is a c. A C is ok.

Yes, any pass grade is ok, but kids do have expectations / ambitions based on what they know they’re capable of - whether that’s to get a 9, a 7 or a 5. So it’s natural for them to feel that they’ve lost the chance to improve and get their aspirational grade.

It also depends on their cohort as to whether they think a 4/ 5 is fine. DD’s whole year are expected to get all 7 and above although one or two won’t. Last year 46% of the year got at least 8 grade 9s! But dd knows it doesn’t matter if doesn’t achieve that. It’s all irrelevant anyway a couple of years down the line.

Dd is much more bothered about missing prom, the folk festival, her summer camps etc. Such a lot to take in!