In your experience, are predicted GCSE grades usually accurate?

[greenplants]

DS is in year 10 and just starting to receive his predicted GCSE grades. Just wondering if dc usually achieve these.

Not in our case 4 or 5 years ago. Mine was predicted Bs and mostly Cs, and got A*A and a couple of Bs, no Cs at all. I suspect the thought of Cs scared her into revising really hard.

At this stage it would just be target grades as they haven’t done enough work to have accurate predictions.

By April of y11 predictions will be accurate

Last year DS2's school refuses to do them. We had their "minimum expected grade" I.e their target based on expected progress since year 6 SATS in only maths and English and their "currently working at" and were told to eastimate them ourselves if needed for eg apprenticeship applications.

I agree with wheresmyliveship. At this stage of year 10 they will only have begun the syllabus in most cases and it's really far too early to predict actual grades accurately. My dc were given target grades, but not until after Y10 mocks.

Oh sorry misread the question, that was reference to Y11 not Y10

I doubt their predicted grades ? Most like target.

They could well be 'predicted', our school does that from first term of y10 (or at least it used to, I'll see if they still do at the end of term). But they are very clear these are approximate predictions and will be changed as time goes on, and also that they are definitely not promises!

In answer to the OP's question, DD1's predictions were either accurate or within 1 grade. My final predictions were better than the school's though.

… but this was under the old system. I suspect with the new grading things are less predictable anyway as the system is still shaking down.

Yes, For my daughter were.

Wait until the Y11 mocks for a better idea. But still, teachers can’t predict the future, only make an informed guess.

Dd1 sat her gcse’s this summer. Her yr10 predictions were quite off in the sciences, other subjects were more realistic.

Yr11 final predictions were realistic, apart from the 9s never materialised, good set of 7/8s achieved.

Some of her friends grades were way off year 11 targets.... predicted 6/7s and got a 9 right through to an ungraded.

I’ve a feeling this could be more their school, rather than a national trend

Dd2 now in yr 11 and we are planning for all eventualities

For ds1 thank goodness they weren’t. Predicted C’s and D’s, got A’s and B’s.

Our school gave two sets: expected grades based on SATs and a second set based on current performance
For both my DDs school underpredicted massively and only got 1 subject right. I think a lot of it depends on how much effort they put in after mocks - DD2 did very poorly in her sciences, worked her socks off and got 776 and a 7 in maths, having got 3445 in mocks and being predicted 5556.

My Dds weren't. As late as April y11 she was predicted 5s but ended up with all grades being 7+. Her maths teacher is the only one who predicted correctly. The others under predicted. Can't help but wonder if this is to manipulate progress figures ?

I personally think it's not possible to predict until they've had a chance to sit a mock where they can revise for a paper. In y10 it was not clear how hard my kids would be working until exams.

At most they are an informed guess. Anything can happen on the day - stay the same, go up it go down.

DD's results last year - some up, some up by a lot, some down a grade, one or two the same. Mocks and predicted grades given in year 11 January (and some in April) after mocks.

My own were the same. For a level my mock in y13 for one subject was a barely an E. I got an A with a very high raw mark (before a star grades around) Just a combination of totally misreading the mock questions, panic revision and then getting the right questions on the day I guess.

pika It can't be to manipulate progress figures as such, as they are calculated on a formula based on y6 SATs and what everyone else in the country with those SATs achieved.

We were giving the prediction based on SATS and a prediction based on classwork. I understand that it must be very hard to guess but based on my 2 kids it's very much a guess

DS's predicted grades have fluctuated widely at the end of every term.
Maybe they are better for DC that work steadily and consistently?

His target (based on SATS) grades are pretty much just random numbers.

DD had her expected grade as a target and all of cams,tests and what grade they were given in regular reports and comments to say if on track to achieve them.
In the event she worked hard and out did the schools expectations and hers.

They are getting more reliable now everyone is starting to get used to the new exams but as others have said it is too soon for proper predictions.

Both of mine exceeded their predicted grades, but it was a few years ago (with a lot of hard work though)