Do private schools always over offer?

[worriedandstressedAAA]

Awaiting results from 2 schools which are due out this week for DS who is starting year 7 this September. These two are our buffer schools as DS didn't get offers at our other 2 preference schools. One school apparently had 200 applications for 70 places; the other had 300 for 80 places. Sitting here biting my nails and wondering how likely it is that DS will get an offer from either. He is slightly above average academically and thinks he did ok in the assessments and interview but who knows. Neither school is a hothouse and in previous years I am pretty sure he would have got an offer but this year seems ridiculously competitive with hardly any kids at DS's primary getting offers. Worried we will end up with no offers.

Without knowing the schools it is difficult to say, but generally yes. My experience is of North London Indies, which might give a skewed picture. We were told that schools were very aware that candidates would sit for more than one school and therefore needed to over offer quite substantially to fill all their places.

Yes they over offer.
Even the most popular know most kids sitting their exam have sat 3+ others too which might be equally popular, so they over offer. It's a difficulty science to calculate how many will accept and avoid under or over filling. No school wants to go to waiting list because by the deadline time most people have accepted somewhere else and they often have to go far down the list to those they are less keen to have.

I've know some very good but not quite top tier schools have to over offer by 4x places because they never fill despite huge numbers sitting. They simply remain a back up for loads and every year see lots of enthusiastic students at their exams and in interview who then turn them down. Essentially they become non-selective as in rider to fill they need to make offers to all applicants apart from a tiny number they really really don't want.

ok, thanks both. A glimmer of hope perhaps. Both are considered back-up schools really. I would be more optimistic but the numbers this year seem very high.

Certain schools only offer to those that will do well at the school, they still offer more than their number of places but won’t go to those that didn’t make the cut off in terms of standard.
Other schools must massively over offer, as they are definitely back up schools for a lot of DC. So there is plenty of hope. Good luck.

Just accept immediately! There have been many instances of offers being withdrawn to those who didn’t accept within 12 hours or whatever!

Ime yes, and occasionally schools get caught out by the number of acceptances, having to put on extra classes. This may then impact on capacity to accept pupils at 13+. It will be interesting to see if those schools previously highlighted for "exploding offers" repeat that strategy this year, despite negative publicity.

Where were there exploding offers previously?

This is certainly the case with the SW London indes.

The 2 that had ‘exploding offers’ last year were Channing and CLSG (City girls). Both schools have confirmed that they are following the same system this year as it ‘works for them’. I don’t think they are particularly concerned about the negative publicity. Awful system I think, mainly because their offers come out before the state allocations.

Schools that rescind offers after a short time period will have pre-notified candidates of this system. OP, I wouldn't worry. The application stats you outline are not particularly onerous. You have to factor in that a % will be candidates that are way under the mark. Once they have been taken out if the equation you looks to have probably a 2:1 ratio of applicants to places. That's pretty safe. As others have mentioned, people apply to 3,4,5 or more schools. The actual numbers that decline offers depends on the school. A very high ranking school will not over offer as many places as they know most offers will bring an acceptance. So they will only over offer a few places. Schools that are known as being back up schools will know that they will have a lot of offers declined so they over offer a lot of places. The schools themselves know where they sit in the desirability spectrum. They dint always get it right as you get funny years where people accept and decline against the curve but it's something the schools each have a system for calculating. On those peculiar years, schools end up putting in an extra class or having spaces left depending on which way it went. Most of not all schools run a what list system to try to manage this whole tricky numbers business. But I wouldn't worry too much about your ratios as it sounds like you have applied to decent but not incredibly hard to get into schools and the application numbers are pretty safe.

Waitlist. Sheesh. Hate typing on the phone.

Thanks all. I am actually a bit worried that DS may be one of the ones "under the mark" who doesn't get an offer. I had hoped that at least one of the options would take him but now not so sure.

The head master at Dulwich said he is going to make 100 offers for 70 places. That’s not that much at all, really worrying.

worriedandstressedAAA - how do you know that "hardly any kids at DS primary got offers" if the school are still to send offers out?

I would wait until Friday and see where you stand. I am sure one (or both) offers will materialize.

Schools near us make offers in rounds. Round one offers to the number of places with a deadline to accept and then they start offering places that haven’t been secured.

@ladygaga01 some schools have an interview stage after the exams - no interview = no offer

LadyGaga, I meant offers from other schools which are far more popular than these two. Could be irrelevant as these two schools are supposed to be a lot easier to get into but the trend seems to be that the number of applications this year is very high.

Worried, my children go to a school that is considered by many locally to be a backup/easier to get into and the last couple of years they've had about three times the applicants to places available. So that makes it not a certainty, but equally much better odds than some of the schools I read about on here.

One factor might be whether the school prioritises siblings (my children's school does, informally) so a child with a lower entrance exam score might get a place over a higher scoring candidate (all kinds of factors will effect decision of course).

Honestly I can but dream of those odds - the ones we've applied for have 10 applicants per place (I know the reality is nothing like that but it still feels intimidating).

Most schools, even sought-after ones, offer 3x the number of places, certainly in London where there's so much choice that everyone applies for at the very least two.

I imagine that schools with far less applicants are using an entrance procedure for two reasons - one to make it feel as if children have 'gained' a place; secondly as excuse not to accept the very hard to teach.

ps am conscious that the above makes me sound a bit snooty about less selective schools. I'm not. I often think the very selective schools are the biggest con - it's easy to teach those who've already proved themselves to be academic and hardworking.

If you're talking SW London yes they all do! Most parents at our indie primary applied to 5 or 6 schools (2 aspirational, 2 achievable and 1 or 2 in our case, back-ups). We've had 4 offers, a WL and are waiting on one of the aspirational on Friday but are about to accept one of the achievables so I've released 4 places this week, one of which is aspirational but we felt was the wrong fit. We've chosen a school that many round here would consider to be a back up, especially compared to others on our list .
All of that info to show you that there will be a flurry of unfilled, first offer places that will be released imminently (hopefully if everyone does the right thing and does not sit on their offers). Awful, stressful process but those that have gone before us have all reported back that the system does 'work' once the process is seen through to the end and that nearly all the children end up in school that in hindsight, is right for them ie no massive surprises

Same in SE London. DS is in a small indie primary. Compared to others in his class, he barely sat for any indies as he sat for (only!) five. One aspirational, two realistic, two back ups. He has offers from each of his back ups, and the others will offer or not offer at the end of this week. Do yes, those that we have applied for do over-offer.

PS our head teacher sent out an email today telling everyone to release unwanted offers ASAP as there are other chidren waiting - good for her!

PPS I know of one family that sat for 10 schools this year and one family that sat for 12 last year (and that child got offers for all but 1).
Stay strong & good luck

I would agree.....I also think that the schools are competing with each other for the "best kids" so they want to make getting into their school seem as difficult as possible (to try and make you covet a place more)....one very aspirational head told parents that they only "over offered" 10% which in this particular instance equated to 4 additional offers. Having been through the process with another DC a few years back I knew this to be complete rubbish as that many children at my prep school alone turned down places at this particular school.....

They do all over offer to some extent but they have usually built that in so don't always go to the waiting list. We're on the WL for a school for which we'd been pretty confident of an offer. When I phoned them they were very nice and said they'd tell me soon where we were (which in fairness they have already done and with an exact number of our position) - but that they had not gone to the waiting list since 2016. That didn't leave me feeling great about the process!!