GCSE predictions; how accurate dud they turn out to be?

[Foxy333]

I know the exams and courses have changed recently. But in the last 2 years and the few years before that ...how accurate where predictions for your dc?

I'm guessing they are a broad estimate based on mocks, work during the years, even Sats factored in.
But my son worries a lot and if we knew that most people roughly are near their predictions ( as long as they didn't do no revision or any big factor) that would reassure him.

Not at all for ds1. He scored higher than predicted grades in some and lower in others.

DD's are more accurate but she's exceeded targets in half her subjects.

How close is he to taking GCSEs? The further way he is, the more inaccurate they'll be ime.

That's a good point. His are next year.
Thanks for info. I'd really be curious what formula teachers used. Think will ask school.

Teacher predicted grades are not based on a formula but more from experience which is why the last few years gave been so difficult!

DD did better than predictions in many subjects but she worked very hard in the last few months before exams. Teachers will tell you that is a big factor and can easily make 1, 2 or even 3 grades difference.

For my class last year almost entirely bang on in terms of marks and performance on the papers we got back. With nice grade boundaries some got what I feel were higher grades at the top end (having seen their paper and compared to the standardizing material from the board).

cricketballs3
I agree. You get a feeling as to where a student will perform and also where they might fall in the national bell curve.
It meant some of mine who I thought would get 7s actually came out with 8s because the paper was done poorly nationally sit he boundaries were lower.

Both my ds did better than predicted and better than mocks. Both started to really revise about 6 weeks before gcse's started. Ds2 went from a predicted 4 to an 8 in Geography.

dotty
I would expect mocks to be a grade under target.

A DC going from a 4 to an 8 and revising with 6 weeks to go is a bright lazy student who was banking on winging it. It can work for GCSE, but it's not an attitude to nurture as those students tend to end up finding a level tough (in my experience) because they think they don't have to work hard and revise.

My DC (11 GCSEs)

Targets: ............. 8x7's, 3x8's
Mock 1: ... 3x6's, 5x7's, 2x8's, 1x9

Mock 2: ... 5x6's, 2x7's, 2x8's, 2x9's
Predicted: .......... 5x7's, 4x8's, 2x9's

Actual: .......................... 5x8's, 7x9's

Don't know if that helps any.

edit: He actually got 4x8's and 7x9's at school, I accidentally added in an extra result he did outside school which had no target, mock or predicted grade.

As a teacher I think I have about an 80% accuracy rate.

You always get some results you just don't understand higher and lower.

DD4's results were 100% correct.

She worked sensibly - not over the top, but steadily - and there no mitigating factors.

Also some schools want teachers to ‘predict’ in a certain way (usuallyhigher to meet some unrealistic targets).

If I compare my students’ official predicted grade(that gets reported), their final outcome and my own records of predictions, then my own ones are closer. But we are told to ‘aim high’to boost confidence.

That's very true media. That's up there with 'aspirational target grades' so you get a student who is performing below average for the year, target grade is a 3, but in a chat someone decides that because they want a 6 that can be their aspirational target and it can go on their books etc and sometimes you'll even get told to change it on reports etc because it will motivate them.

For 2 years you say 'they need to work on x y z. A 3 is perhaps on the low side as a target but I would say overall they fit the profile of a 4 student who could get a strong 5 if they work'. You teach them everything to enable them to get a 6, but it doesn't happen (either lack of ability or effort). For 2 years you get hammered about intervention because the child who had a perhaps 5% chance of ever getting a 6 is still nowhere close. As it turns out they get a middle grade 5.
Someone then asks why they didn't get their target grade, even though they seriously outperformed their proper statistically driven but sometimes bollocks target grade.

sours
Aiming high on target grades (like I've mentioned) happens because some senior leaders seem to think that letting students set their own target equals aspirations rather than doing anything to promote aspiration.
So one of my current y11 classes is already at their targets, but they are capable of more so we've already had a chat about aiming for top band and how to keep trying to keep better. All that is aspirational and good. My school only hold me to account on their data driven targets so nobody will come to me and say 'in November 2018 you told David he should be aiming for a 7 but in the summer he got a 6'.

Other schools will let students decide what grades they want and the batter staff about why students aren't on their aspirational targets. The reason is almost always because the student doesn't stand much of a chance to get X grade or they are but are too lazy to do anything about it

Predicted grades should be as accurate as possible and if in doubt err on the side of caution, but I know of some staff who are more bothered about looking good and will make generous predictions and current levels because it's easier for them and keeps people off their back. Then if/when students don't get it they blame the students not working hard enough, conveniently ignoring the fact that their inflated / generous approach has told students they're doing enough to get a set grade.

There's also some pressure in some schools for internal data for tracking and ofsted but rather than it be tracking accurately, it's about internal data looking good for ofsted. Some senior leaders in schools lean on staff to make sure the spreadsheet looks right even though everyone knows the score.

My son was under predicted and because of that he did not get a place in a better six form. In Re and Spanish he was predicted a 5 and he got a 9 in both of them. In maths a 7 and he got a 8.

This is actually the main reason (especially at A Level/Uni) that there is a call @Spanish10 for offers etc to be made after results as it's not accurate. I can 'predict' a low grade in December following quality of classwork etc and a student 'suddenly' to understand and apply their learning together with the opposite of hig predictions and a student then turning off

DS yr10 is having grade target discussions now. I'm thinking it's a bit early. Promoting aspiration is great but I fear he's going to feel a bit under pressure. I won't be adding to it!