DfE Data Cruncher predicts number of students who will get straight 9s

[noblegiraffe]

His guess is.... 2

Not 2%,

2 kids in the whole country will get all 9s in their GCSEs.

So that's the new challenge for the MN boaster.

Ofqual reckon 0 kids will manage it. They clearly haven't met any MNetters' kids.

twitter.com/timleunig/status/845699774754017280

Titchy- this is Mumsnet. "University " and "Oxbridge" are synonyms.

Bert - really? I don't think so . It's a small point but I think you just may be over egging it. Not looking for an argument - you believe what you believe. There will be a self selecting number of contributors but I do not think you comment is quite fair. Anyhow - no further comments your honour.

Bert
Mary - often predicted grades are rubbish yes, but they are what get applicants offers. Places on the other hand depend on ACHIEVED grades. It all works out.

Yes, droning back to the 80s only one person in my year (an incredibly selective girls' grammar) got all As. No one was particularly bothered by their results as long as they were adequate. Same with A Levels - it wasn't 3As or bust. People applied to Oxbridge with a quite duff hand of results and got in.*

I've often thought it would be fun to start a thread of people's memories of an 80s education. Very different world. DD finds my old school reports hysterical. I think for French I got "Disappointing. More effort needed." She says "Weren't they horrible" - to me it seems fairly mild. Mind you, that was the French teacher who when some exchange students arrived from France proved unable to communicate with them.

Still, I remember also the English teacher who gave me Alison Uttley's Country Child which I still adore, (and thank God didn't have to write an essay about it using the right keywords) and told me when I was grown up to read Middlemarch, "you'll love it, the greatest novel ever written." I do and it is.

"Bert smile - really? I don't think so . It's a small point but I think you just may be over egging it."

Maybe. But it is an explanation for the level of ariation about GCSE grades among people with university bound offspring. GCSE grades really only matter for Oxbridge and for kids not going down the academic route. And to me. I want ds in the local paper to make up for 5 years of head tilts in Morrisons.

Middlemarch ? there are two texts I hate , one is Wordsworth The Prelude and Middlemarch a close 2nd. The Sun Also Rises , Hemingway aka Fiesta - brilliant. I say this in a friendly way - everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

HPFA - Re 80s education , possibly a bit earlier ( end 70s , early 80s ) , but I had a weekly elocution lesson ( actually called speech training) Bonkers !

Bert, fair play .
I wish him well , but can you see why I think that it is not Oxbridge or bust. There are a huge amount of sensible choices between the two.

Obvs [ blush]

Oh, my word- Middlemarch is amazing!! Have you tried it recently?

I was about to be really patronizing and ask you how old you were, but I won't.

You can patronise me all you like I am mid fifties. I know I am probably a minority but am allowed my own opinion < whispers> I have a first in English ( albeit a long time ago ) - I don't like Dickens

That said , Bertrand , your comment has made me feel I might like to try Middlemarch again - I'll give it another go and let you know. Thanks for giving me a nudge.

there are two texts I hate , one is Wordsworth The Prelude and Middlemarch a close 2nd.

No, No I can handle it if you say "Actually, Nigel Farage is a little too left-wing for my taste" but disliking Middlemarch - that's too much.

I never really got into poetry - I can read Yeats a bit but only because my great-great aunt was his closest friend (see there's a stealth boast to beat any number of Grade 9s).

I want ds in the local paper to make up for 5 years of head tilts in Morrisons.

Bert you do realise that will be taken as proof that secondary moderns really are better for some (translate - other people's) children

I finished school in the mid 1980s. At that point, entrance to Oxbridge was primarily through their entrance exam - taken in the 4th term of 6th form, or (until the year before me) the term after A-levels - and subsequent interviews. O-level results were pretty irrelevant except in guiding schools' decisions as to who took Oxbridge entrance, and once an offer was gained, 2 Es were sufficient to fulfil the offer.

I am one of those rather odd people from that era with a full set of As, in excessive numbers: 10 O-levels, one A/O level, 4 A-levels and 2 S-levels at grade 1. I was one of 2 from my school with identical results, though there several more with all As but smaller numbers of subjects.

No, No I can handle it if you say "Actually, Nigel Farage is a little too left-wing for my taste" but disliking Middlemarch - that's too much.

Ha ha

That makes me laugh , we all have our own opinions. I will actually try Middlemarch again , I prefer 20th century American plays, a bit of Evelyn Waugh (outwith the Catholic themes) and a bit of Anglo Saxon poetry and prose.

Actually- maybe try Mill on the Floss first?

cantkeepawayforever,

'S' levels, me too. I got mine in chemistry and physics. If I recall correctly, S level grades were specified sometimes in Oxbridge offers.

I don't know when they stopped, they were highly regarded and good indicators.

I haven't read Middlemarch, or Mill on the Floss. I have read Jurassic Park though. An excellent read which inspired me to take maths at uni. I'm totes highbrow.

Bertrand - let's not overload me . Oh, but, thanks , all. It will make me have a go at something I otherwise wouldn't. Have read both and cannot remember enjoying either. But - I was much younger then. Oh - I would use say for those who studied English - Actually I have to put Middlemarch below the Faerie Queen - now that is boring. ( sorry to derail thread )

Bert I'm quite happy to be a piece of work but my question to noble - does she share good practice - was asked because she seems to be very dismissive of so many of her colleagues and relates approaches which are completely second nature to most teachers as though they are some sort of revelation. The question was absolutely appropriate. Interesting that it was answered by telling me that she spent reams of time on MN slating anonymous schools and teachers. That raises a great many questions which I'm not going to ask - I probably don't need to in fact.

This whole thing about numerical grades is a distraction. The top kids will get top grades, the same kids will get to the best unis, the exams are significantly better in terms of stretching kids, the only real losers are those of the least ability but Bert you repeatedly decline to tell us how you're squaring up to that challenge - beyond moaning about no-one caring of course.

goodbye ( and for context given this thread started by talking about the high achievers) - albeit I derailed it by talking about my - clearly disagreed with Eng Lit preferences - I can understand how some may be disconcerted by the new exams. I pretty much agree that whatever the exam , if you have a DC who would have been on top of their game in their cohort , compared to previous years, well, yes a bit tricky but by and large a DC who would have done well in previous years will do well this year. I do not mean to dismiss the anxieties parents have. But a DC can only do the exam put in front of them. For the avoidance of doubt - yes I understand the pass / good pass thing. I tended to worry too much about DS but by and large I hope that I would have thought - he's in it with everyone else. & see my post about Pre Us.

she spent reams of time on MN slating anonymous schools and teachers.

Getting quite used to you speaking from a position of complete ignorance now....

'S' levels, me too. I got mine in chemistry and physics. If I recall correctly, S level grades were specified sometimes in Oxbridge offers.
My school did a mixture of STEPs and S levels (90s). The content was similar, so maybe there wasn't enough demand to sustain both. STEPs still exist and can still feature in uni offers as friend's DS has one such this year. Confusingly the top grade on STEP papers was (is?) an S.

I have to say , on this point , I pretty much agree with Goodbye. "The top kids will get top grades, the same kids will get to the best unis" Now, there are other points to be made , but re the original question, assuming a similar cohort and teachers why would the world be turned on its head ? I understand other concerns as mentioned upthread.

I have read Jurassic Park though

DP and I went to see Jurassic Park with a couple of scientists from the Rutherford Appleton Lab. After the film they lectured us for an hour on how it was "scientifically implausible". We thought the big dinosaurs were great!!

I did have a friend at school who never read for pleasure at all - I once saw her reading Judith Krantz's Scruples on a train but that's the only time I saw her read anything non-school related. It didn't stop her doing very well academically. I'm a bit sceptical about the idea that reading for pleasure is essential to doing well at school - obviously being able to read fluently is!!

noble another meaningless statement. Nothing I say suggests I'm completely ignorant, simply that I'm significantly less fazed by the new grading system and exams than you are, also less rude and less prone to saying fuck and fucking.

For clarity, and since you say things on this thread which suggest that you believe you have a novel approach to parents' meetings etc. and seem to be so incredibly disparaging of so many of your colleagues ('lies' 'nonsense'), I asked the question: do you actually ever get out of your own department and your own school and actually watch what other teachers do, talk to then and collaborate with them? Your answer was that you spend a huge amount of time on MN criticizing other teachers and schools.