DfE Data Cruncher predicts number of students who will get straight 9s

[noblegiraffe]

His guess is.... 2

Not 2%,

2 kids in the whole country will get all 9s in their GCSEs.

So that's the new challenge for the MN boaster.

Ofqual reckon 0 kids will manage it. They clearly haven't met any MNetters' kids.

twitter.com/timleunig/status/845699774754017280

@portico

Game on! Son is consistently getting 9s in all single science end of unit exams. He will be up for the challenge when he reads this.

You realise teachers are not really able to accurately assess these in most subjects? Nobody really knows what a 9 'looks' like

bye the way

No 9 for me...appalling error.

I was looking on Bertrand's Y11 thread, lots of posters saying that their school isn't predicting 9s.

I think the thread has gone beyond those two studnets who'll be getting all 9s.... (Wonder if they'll ever know there was an entire MN thread about them?)

All GCSEs really do is filter students for the next stage.

For many students the next stage will be employment, hopefully. Adn they will, in a very few years, be competing against those who took their GCSEs once everything had bedded donw.

Adn they will, in a very few years, be competing against those who took their GCSEs once everything had bedded down.

But within a few years they will have had a few years of work experience and people are unlikely to look in detail at GCSEs, provided they have what are considered to be passes in Maths and English. For example, for somebody who goes into hairdressing, their GCSEs are likely to be irrelevant once they have their hairdressing training.

There were bedding down issues when GCSEs were introduced in 1988 - albeit more minor ones than with the current transition. The grades obtained in 1988/1989 are not quite comparable to grades obtained in the early 90s, and certainly not comparable to grades obtained 10 or 20 years later. It really doesn't matter for most purposes.

I'm not so worried about future year comparability any more since the DfE rolled back their proposal to change to resits for 4s in 2 year's time, that was a positive move in some ways, although it completely blew up the Tory education policy of a move towards more rigour.

In addition, Ofqual are very aware that the first cohort are disadvantaged due to lack of adequate preparation www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/549686/an-investigation-into-the-sawtooth-effect-in-gcse-as-and-a-level-assessments.pdf and they have taken measures to ensure that the first cohort won't be disadvantaged by pegging the 4s and 7s to the current proportions of Cs and As. Once the results are out, I suspect that the grade boundaries will have to be low enough that many who were worried about not getting particular grades will be pleasantly surprised.

However, that doesn't ameliorate the effects of uncertainty on next-step applications. Students avoiding A-level maths. Students not applying for certain colleges or courses because they don't think they'll make the grade. The misinformation being put out by well-meaning schools/individuals because they don't understand the intricacies of the data. The sheer mental burden on these students caused by the stress of the unknown.

As an experienced teacher, I'm used to knowing what I'm talking about. I hate telling students and parents 'I just don't know, nobody knows, we'll just have to see what happens'.

"But within a few years they will have had a few years of work experience and people are unlikely to look in detail at GCSEs, provided they have what are considered to be passes in Maths and English."

So long as 4 remains a "good pass" , and they don't change the goalposts again. Even "hairdressers" need qualifications. And a previous High Master of Winchester couldn't get a job as a supply teacher after he retired until he had taken GCSE maths.

If the DfE don't want teachers teaching to the test, then they need to scrap both league tables and performance related pay.

Good luck trying to get those proposals through.

Even "hairdressers" hmm need qualifications.

Why put it in quotes, as if I was implying that hairdressing is not a good thing to do?

Don't salons select hairdressers based mainly on their hairdressing qualifications and experience? Would a salon really reject somebody just for not having a 5 in GCSE maths if they had 5+ years of experience in hairdressing? Why?

And a previous High Master of Winchester couldn't get a job as a supply teacher after he retired until he had taken GCSE maths.

You would need to quote the precise circumstances for this to be meaningful. It is not the case that you need (British) GCSE maths to become a qualified teacher in the UK - you can take an equivalence test see e.g.

www.educateteachertraining.co.uk/routes/

On the other hand, it is plain crazy that somebody with a PhD in Mathematics from a UK university who did not take GCSEs (due e.g. to being from abroad or being home educated) could be prevented from teaching Maths by not having GCSEs in English and Maths. (The PhD in Mathematics clearly requires knowledge and skills in Maths and communication/writing skills in English well beyond GCSE.)

I had to take a basic numeracy test to qualify as a teacher and I had to show my GCSE Maths certificate for my current job, even though I've got a Masters in maths.

Someone with a PhD in maths would be able to instantly get a teaching job at an academy though, because they don't have to hire qualified teachers any more.

Schools such as Eton regularly target Maths PhDs from my department (without caring about their GCSEs at all) and provide in house training for them.

Given the shortage of maths teachers, I find it ludicrous that people are being asked to jump through stupid hoops such as displaying GCSE certificates just for the sake of it.

That was 11 years ago, Nowadays some schools can't even get anyone to stand in front of their maths classes.

I don't even have a child taking GCSEs this year and I am getting anxious! Let's hope when the grades do come out there is a feeling of general relief.

Had a look at hairdressing qualifications. Level 1 required 3 GCSEs at Grade D including English. Going in at a higher level requires Cs

www.swindon.ac.uk/Course-Search/CourseDetails.aspx?id=316445

Having purchased Hairdressing textbooks as part of my job there is a lot to learn - far more than you might actually think of at first glance - a lot of Health and Safety for a start.

But this wasn't my point HPFA - if a student gets into hairdressing this year with a 4 in Maths, and gets their hairdressing qualification, why would a prospective salon employer care five years down the line whether they got a 4 or 5 in Maths GCSE? This year's cohort going into hairdressing won't be compared to those getting GCSEs in 5 years time. Maybe the latter will need to get 5s but that's not relevant to this year's cohort.

So while the situation is a mess up that should not have happened we shouldn't be hysterical and suggest that it's going to have bigger effects than are actually likely. This just adds to the worries and anxieties of parents and pupils.

If the "good pass" level changes from a 4 to a 5, then it could very well make a difference down the line for someone who gets a 4 this year and has to demonstrate that they got a "good pass" to an employer in 5 years time.........

No, Bertrand. Stop trying to make out that people are quite that stupid!

So you reckon that people going through a pile of CVs are going to check when the applicant did their GCSEs, not just bin the ones that don't meet their basic requirements?

Yeah, right.

The chances of getting a C in GCSE in 1988/1989 were lower than in the early 1990s. Do people born in 1971-1973 feel their lives have been ruined by this?

Well, not having Cs in maths and English has been a big problem for some people, yes. Not quite sure what your point is.........

The point is that the standards have never been comparable between years. It was considerably harder to get a C in GCSE maths in 1988/1989 than it has been in the last few years. A level grades from the mid 1980s are not remotely comparable to grades nowadays.

People cope. Employers cope. They don't just use grades to make job offers and they do take into account that standards have changed.

I only have O-levels in English Language and French. This did not prevent me from getting a job in a big 3 management consultancy (among other things that require qualifications).

BoboChic.
I presume those are not your only qualifications.

User
Employers who have baseline qualifications as a first sift do not consider whether it was easier or harder to get a C in particular years. They just bin the CVs without the Cs.

Blimey how many threads have we seen on here where posters are asking advice on how to get their GCSE Maths and English?! Fucking loads!

Pretend it's fine all you like - but if you don't have them, whether because you took them a couple of years ago and only managed a D, or 20 years ago when a C was much more difficult, it is a REAL problem faced by people.

Can you not understand that for you, with your degree and or other higher qualification all is well, but when you haven't taken any qualification since you left school life isn't quite so easy.

Richard Branson never got any qualifications therefore no one needs them.