DfE Data Cruncher predicts number of students who will get straight 9s

[noblegiraffe]

His guess is.... 2

Not 2%,

2 kids in the whole country will get all 9s in their GCSEs.

So that's the new challenge for the MN boaster.

Ofqual reckon 0 kids will manage it. They clearly haven't met any MNetters' kids.

twitter.com/timleunig/status/845699774754017280

noble you're straying into grounds of serious bad taste. Either get back to the grading system or back off - you don't seem to have adequate boundaries. Has it occurred to you that people on this thread may be the parents or siblings or friends of those with such problems. Teachers encounter the problems but at least are emotionally one step removed.

Teachers encounter the problems but at least are emotionally one step removed.
I really hope that isn't the case. I really hope my dcs teachers are watching out for my dc's mental health...because it is top of my list, to hell with grades, my dc's well being trumps everything!

lottachocca I'm not sure how a teacher could be more emotionally involved with a child than a parent or a sibling or a friend. That doesn't mean to say teachers don't 'watch out', of course they do - or should.

Apologies I have not read all 14 pages - will it be the case that a 9 will be the equivalent of a very high A*?

In my DC's school (so-called 'super-selective' in London) there are 180 in a year group, divided into 10 maths sets. This year not one child out of this 180 got anything less than an A* in Maths. The top 3 sets take maths GCSE a year early. But those in the bottom 3 sets who actually perceive themselves to be struggling a bit in maths, obviously are not in the wider context

I believe they are switching to the numerical grades for next year. If grades will be split between 8s and 9s going forward I predict more stress in schools that are already high-pressure enough as it is.

No goodbye, it's you that's crossing lines. How fucking dare you suggest that I don't have genuine concerns for pupils' mental health while at the same time dismissing any reasonable concerns as silly? How can you pontificate about your DD and how she wouldn't be bothered and hope that there are 'other families like us' who obviously wouldn't have a problem with unrealistic expectations, then express concern that others on the thread affected by mental health issues might have issues with what I'm saying, when I say that it could be a problem and I'm talking from experience? You are clearly unable to imagine anything outside your own limited experience, but teachers can and do actually care about their students.

It is getting a bit carried away in here. Perhaps we should switch to something less controversial. Anybody got any views on Brexit? :)

will it be the case that a 9 will be the equivalent of a very high A*?

Sort of. The number of 9s will vary depending on the subject taken and what percentage currently get an A or above. There will be more 9s available in subjects which are traditionally taken by more able DC, such as Greek or Latin.

In maths the % of A is currently 8.8, and the percentage of 9s will be about 3.7. In English language the percentage of A is currently 5.3, and the percentage of 9s will be 3.4, so much less of a drop.

Yes quite hertsandessex, time to step away.

lottachocca I'm not sure how a teacher could be more emotionally involved with a child than a parent or a sibling or a friend. That doesn't mean to say teachers don't 'watch out', of course they do - or should
Sadly I can well imagine and hope for teachers who are more emotionally involved in a child than a parent or a sibling or a friend - all parents are not equal!

Thanks noble. 8.8% currently getting A in maths is quite high. There is definitely a range of maths ability in my DC school even though they all seem to come out with the same A, so in a way it's fair enough to differentiate the very able.

Of course predictions count at GCSE. I've got kids who have applied for college/sixth form courses on the assumption that they will get a certain grade in maths. Higher or lower predictions would have made a difference to their choices
Noble why is it any harder than before to predict whether the student can tackle A level work? All you can do is give the equivalent grades to the old system, ie 7/8 for A/A* and do your best to teach your pupils the appropriate level of maths. Neither the ability of the pupils nor the quality of your teaching is going to be altered by whether you predict them a 7 or an 8.

Ok you can't drill them with lots of past papers. However I am not sure whether the previous emphasis on repetitive exam question practice so that pupils are more likely to regurgitate the right answers through pattern recognition in the real exam is actually of any more long term benefit to the pupil for understanding the subject as a basis for A level than long term drilling for the 11 plus.

Amar if the new exams are any good the top grade may differentiate pupils who are able to get eg A* in maths A level perhaps even further maths to help university entry criteria. However how well the exams will be able to do this depends not only on the question style but also the quality of the marking. The latter will still throw up the usual wild cards especially for humanities in addition to the variables of whether a pupil performs their best on the day.

Whilst this thread has been about the high ability students can we also take some time to think about those that aren't high flyers; there are less grades available to them - in the old system they had D-G so 4 grades. Now there are only 3 in a harder system - imagine the self worth they are going to have

The grading policy at GCSE is undergoing a culture change. That is why there is the switch from letters to numbers: to mark the fact that people must now think entirely differently about grading, in particular moving away from a culture where so many pupils got top grades that it was impossible to distinguish the exceptional from the excellent from the clever.

Noble - if you understand and embrace the culture change (which will in fact remove pressure from students once it has bedded down), your students will also have a chance of understanding and embracing it.

7% do not get straight A* tiggytape.

Change always causes upset far too many people ignore the positives and focus only on the negatives.

Parents and teachers have a responsibility to their DC/ students in terms of managing any potential disappointment.

There is absolutely no convincing argument to suggest any student will miss out on opportunities due to the new grading system. There has been no change to the number of sixth form places.

People need to stop trying to make comparisons between old GCSEs and new GCSEs. It's a new culture. And that's a good thing: the old one was totally unfit for purpose. Teachers would do best to explain to this year's GCSE students just how lucky they are!

The main problem seems to be the same as with so many educational reforms. They are rushed through with insufficient large-scale testing and trialling. There should be a couple of years of modelling this in large cohorts so that the likely levels are known and problems about passing grades ironed out before the first children sit the real exams. It was exactly the same with the KS2 changes last year where they were telling schools they wouldn't know what the pass mark was until the actual exam.

I disagree. We need to stop presenting mid-level national exams as some kind of objective, perfect, gold standard. They are hoops that the vast majority of children will jump through. The curriculum needs to be sound but they cannot be tested to death to achieve some kind of perfect. The English school system is far too full of tests: the DC are treated like machines on a production line, regularly tested to see if they "work right" on the journey to completion.

Gosh it's hard to focus on any future positives when there are so many negatives associated with being the first year through a poorly thought-out untested rushed through massive change with goalposts that have been changing constantly right up to the weeks before the exam. Anyone who doesn't think this has been a massive balls-up from start to finish simply hasn't been paying attention.

There is absolutely no convincing argument to suggest any student will miss out on opportunities due to the new grading system.

Here's an example of someone who hasn't been paying attention.

Yes, I have been paying attention, Noble. Your problem is that you cannot let go of the old system. To be fair to you, you have been living and breathing it and tweaking it to get the most out of it for years. It frames all your thinking.

Why on earth is it even necessary or desirable to differentiate between the clever and the exceptional at GCSE?

We have much higher and harder qualifications available to make this sort of differentiation when it is more appropriate to do so.

Yes. Until colleges and employers and parents and students get used to it, achieving the 2nd or 3rd highest grade (when in past years it would have been an A or A) might be considered a bit of a let down or a concern and might close off options due to confusion over equivalencies. *

Back in reality, funding depends on student numbers and colleges/universities are perfectly well aware of what is going on. In August colleges will likely be accepting roughly the same numbers as they usually do, even if that means dropping down the required grades.

I accept that the 4/5 boundary is an important issue, and that the whole set of changes are a mess, but being hysterical about problems which are actually unlikely to arise doesn't help anyone.

Pretty soon into these exams everybody will realise that 9s are rare, just like university students understand that marks over 90% are rare.

So that students know where their real talents lie and can make good A-level choices.
So that exceptional students can be identified and given substantial opportunities appropriate to their abilities.

Bobochic - what do you think are the advantages of the new GCSE?