SW/W London Independent Schools thread part two

[Chillaxalready]

There. I've done it and started one.
1001 messages and counting!

NWgirls my true preference is actually for WHS - it was DD who preferred KGS. While it may be true that once school starts there is no difference between wait listed and outright offer children, and I am sure DD would actually prove the process incorrect in her actual academic outcomes, perhaps the 11+ as a means of finding the right 'fit' works both ways...
If I had a real preference for one school at which DD was wait listed and another which I preferred less but she got an outright offer, I would hold on to that wait list place with all the hope I had!!
She applied for two schools only, one our preference and the other hers. She likes both, I like both but we had different preferences. She has an offer at the one I consider more suited to her so my disappointment with her wait list place comes from the rejection she has felt, not that I feel she has somehow missed out on a better school.
Besides, I think if you are not happy with a wait list place and turn it down, it leaves more chance for others on the wait list who are desperate for a place to receive one

Grateful for an insight. First time round this system with my eldest DD. We only applied to 2 private and she was offered a full fee place at JAGS and wait listed for Alleyns. Currently at a state primary and will wait for her state offers. St Marylebone C of E, Graveney, Grey Coat's are our top 3 on that list. I feel confused by the whole system and process. She was set on Alleyns as her top choice until exam day. She hated the day there but felt ok at the interview. JAGS was a wild card and she came skipping out from the exam day and loved the whole experience and kids who went there, which isn't at all what we expected. So we are all pleased with the JAGS offer. But, if she gets one of her top 3 state (all good schools) what to do? My other two kids are boys and we don't have as many good state options for them, so we will most likely go private for them unless she goes to Graveney. There's only a 2 day lapse to decide after the state offers come, so trying to get my head around it all. Anyone out there who can give me insight about the above schools mentioned. I really appreciate it.

notenoughsleep - have pm'd you

ladies - cover ratio of 2.5x or 2.0 is not how they operate. think about a school that wants to take 100 kids ideally. they can't send 200-250 offers out there. if they have 20% miss on their stats (which could easily happen, after all is statistics) they end up with another 20-25 kids (i.e 120-125 in total) which they can't put to into the existing 4 classes (take 30 kids per class instead of 25 - parents will be very upset) or add another whole class (no space). It does not work that way.

When DS1 gained entry to Reeds a few years ago the numbers were - looking to take 40 boys in Year 7; they made offers to 75 boys. I don't know what happened after that in terms of acceptances and revert to waiting list etc., but the year group was approx 42 boys in the end.

Yogli - some schools do exactly that and add a bulge class if they are over- accepted. My daughter was in just such a year at her school - five forms instead of the usual four. The head at one school we applied to told us it had happened twice recently there and they wanted to be careful that it didn't happen again. Must be a nightmare trying to get the numbers right.

I am sure the 2 or2.5x cover is how they operate.The schools have to factor in many refusals,change of circumstance,scholarships and bursaries to other schools and state grammar acceptances and higher preferences.This is all in the mix.At our state primary it is not the whole class who have grammar or private options it is an elite few,some may say unfairly, who have 2,3,4 options but obviously will have to turn down some eventually.The exams have been hard and the quality high.KGS will fill their places with the offers then may go to w/l but from the horses mouth they want to keep numbers low this year.

Sonorous that's awful. You must have been astonished! (polite version). Gotta ask - did you go in the end or abandon after that fiasco?

I'm going to wait two weeks; then see where we are on the wait list and then decide. I keep telling myself to stop being a spoiled brat - we have an offer to a lovely school and I shouldn't be fussing about wait list for another.

Does any one really know how many offers went out for WHS and PHS?
Thank you

Been watching your adventures ladies...

Surely the safest thing would be to underoffer and then ring the waiting list? No school wants to find themselves with more acceptances than they have places for, that's a headache!

indeed splitbrain you are right; But they can offer more based on long term statistics but must make sure that the "tail risk" event (which may happen once every 15 yrs) is something they can really deal with (open an additional class) - which I think, for some of these city school is just not an option. had it been that easy for them to open another class, they would have offered 5 classes initially, after all, they run it as a business and the extra pupil they get in is all "profit". there is no shortage of demand for these schools as you can see, only supply constraints (i.e space, classes etc)

Yes but by the time the schools get round to the waiting list then those that might have preferred that school will have maybe a) paid a deposit and b) persuaded themselves of the merit of the school that made a straight offer instead of a waiting list place.

They need to calibrate it, ideally, so that if they have 100 places they offer to the right amount to get that 100 without going to the wait list. How they do that I don't know, especially with some kids applying to up to 10 schools.

We're waiting for possible offers on Friday from three schools. I'm not sure which school we'll go for but if just one of them offers a place then we'll take place and allow that to make our decision. Being on a waiting list for another school wouldn't sway me as it just seems like prolonging the agony.

I see. And the interview question parents don't like ( which school would you choose if you get all the offers?) is designed to help calculate that 'tail risk'.

No no, the "tail risk" is statistical phrase for an unlikely event ; lets say WHS takes 100 every yr. and long term statistics shows them that they need to offer 200 kids a place to get 100 acceptances. now every year the acceptance rate will vary slightly, it can be 104, 95, 90, 100, 105 etc, they derived the 2x ratio from historical averages/patterns. So they know that with 90%- 95%-85% confidence level they will not end up with more than 108, (assuming that above that number they need to open a new class). BUT there is a chance/probability of say 5%, 3%, 10% that in one year suddenly they can get 116 acceptances even if they used the 2x strategy. that risk of getting the 116 is called a "tale risk" - and then the question what do they do? they cant withdraw offers, they can only open one more class (but can they really do it? do they have space) or they can say each class of the 4 will not be 25 but 29 now - well 29 per class also not that great, parents will not be impressed with that class size has gone up so much.
Their risk is not symmetric - the risk of getting too many kids creates far greater problem than getting less kids in and for that they also have WL.

I wonder whether this year they'll end up going to the wait lists more than in previous if it's true that children are, on average, applying to more schools.

It must be so much easier being the registrar at, say, St Pauls Girls, than at a school that's traditionally perceived to be a banker. Also must be difficult at a city school (eg City boys or girls) that not only has limited space, but also has very unpredictable acceptances because it has such a large catchment area on account of its central location.

yes, this year "record" numbers is mainly due to kids taking more and more exams. if 10 yrs ago the norm was 3 application per child, today the norm is probably 5 or more, and that inflates the numbers. So WL will move in schools like PHS, WH, FSH, etc, have no doubt. How deep into the WL - that's the $1m question.

When waiting for dd at her City interview, I asked how many offers were made at last year (not expecting to get an answer). I was told nearly mid 100s - I took that to mean 140? They miscalculated though and had a bulge class. The teacher I spoke to said that cannot happen this year as they have run out of classrooms!

Place Making!!!!

Surbiton admissions already said they have been cautious with their offer number this year, must be doubly hard when they have increased their intake to know how to calculate.
KGS do have a bulge year , the current 3rd year maybe? The first open day I went to the previous head was asked specifically if she was increasing the school six as the latest intake was bigger. She said no, they always offer about 200 for the 120 places but that year more accepted than usual. She said they had to honour the offers but had learnt a lesson!

That's great, I'm sure she'll be very happy!

Sorry, wrong thread!

Worth checking out an hilarious thread on elevenplusforum in Independent section where some idiot appears to have entered DC twins for umpteen exams, both Grammar and Indep with locations all over the place!!

I agree that applying to lots of schools sounds bonkers, but with twins I guess you have to cover more options if you want to be sure of them being at the same school.

If there's anyone who's been through this before can you advise on how quickly the wait lists move? Trying to decide if I'm going to need to risk a deposit...sigh...