A level predicted grades

[APredictor]

Name changed to protect identity.

I know this has been touched upon in the yr13 thread on this board and the RG Uni thread in Higher Education, but thought it warranted it's own thread.

There seems to be much confusion around how A level predictions are, or should be, made. Not to mention some very unhappy DC right now.

So, teachers - what's the magic formula?
Should it always be AS grade unless close to boundary?
Should it ever be below the AS grade?
What does a DC have to do to convince they can improve from AS?
Is it more rigid for some subjects than others?
Do resits sway the decision either way?

Parents - have your DC missed out on Uni offers through being over or under predicted?
How have you or your DC persuaded teachers to up predictions to give a better chance of offers?

Admissions - What do you think when you see an application with predictions out of line with AS grades?

Please share.

DD has her predictions of AAA. Her AS results were AAB. The B has been predicted an A as she worked at A standard most of the year including her mocks and she is retaking the unit that she got a lower mark in.
Maths: she is predicted an A but only because she got a very high A at AS. Very few have been predicted A* - only if they have needed it and got very high ums at AS. Some of the low As have been predicted a B (unless they have made a very good case for an A) as the maths teacher says A2 is a lot harder.

No magic formula, but generally a combination of factors.

UCAS does have provision for students achieving higher than predicted grades - it's called adjustment and means that students can change their place on results day even if they have firmly accepted an offer.

I would be loathe to over-predict just because a student wants me to. Predicted grades are important and need to be based on professional judgement. A teacher who over-predicts does no one any favours.

We will never over predict. We have our reputation as a college to think of, and some students do tend to view their predictions as an IOU.

There is no magic formula, and I think it varies from subject to subject.

For one of the subjects I teach, the AS is much easier than the A2. Students never rarely do better at A2, and more often than not, drop a grade or two in their A2 grades. So, I very much bear that in mind and look at how close they are to the grade boundaries. If they were comfortably within the grade boundary, I'd expect them to maintain their grade, if they scraped their AS grade, I'd probably predict the one below, and if close to the next grade with a resit planned, then I might go up. Of course, you would also have to factor in the individual student - how hard they work, whether the result was expected or low etc...

However, for my other subject, there is much less of a gap between AS and A2, in fact many students tend to find their feet with the subject at A2 and although it is harder, it is only a bit harder. So I'd have a totally different framework for predicting grades for that A level!

I base it on the AS UMS score, whether students are planning to resit AS modules, and what their work ethic/ambition/determination is like.

Lecherrs is it music and music tech?

Interesting lecherrs, do you mind divulging which subject you teach ?

Guessing, but doesn't sound like Music as extremely difficult to resit as the set works change each year. unless redoing performance and/or composition. Still waiting for DD1's predictions, which includes music. Was hoping she would be predicted up a grade as pulled down by composition and is opting for technical studies instead this year which she is far stronger at.

The comment about maths quite worrying as DD has a mid-boundary grade, so hoping not predicted down.

Do bear in mind that some university courses (such as the one I used to teach on), don't like students to have achieved their final grade with resits of some modules.

ah predictions don`t schools love them. In the days before computers and statistics we could all rely on Rune Stones; tarot cards or Fortune tellers to see into the future.
and as stated above so many factors will influence the outcome of an exam - , hard work - the right questions- whether you are coming down with flu - exam nerves as well as if you did enough work .... and if all of that is not enough how about some quirk from the exam board and some rather erratic marking ( seen that one a few times)
And what about the predictions themselves which create an artificial ceiling to demotivate and limit some children.... ( which does help with a self fulfilling prophecy)

And to ice this ridiculous cake - teachers ( apologies to any teachers, as I actually think you are fab) who write them on UCAS forms like they were a god given certainty.. after all they have the reputation of their Institution to think about ! ( not to mention performance related pay and the endless stress of outcome measures to determine how effective teaching is)
I know some will argue it is all professional judgement and based on performance ... but students get an AS prediction based GCSEs and these are predicted from CATs score/ Key Stage 2. An endless stream of low predictions influences teacher and pupil perceptions.. here is a clever student... here is not so clever student... any doubts look at the wealth of studies on the impact of teacher expectation on student performance.

As I said a self fulfilling prophecy ... you cannot second guess the future
Maybe we should abandon the whole predict anything and do everything once results are in. I bet a few teachers would sigh a relief at that one.
( I will now apologies for my rant - this is a very sore point with me, so I hope you all forgive me )

Religious Studies and Philosophy (in that order!)

Phew... Was hoping not to learn that geography was considerably harder at a2. DD wants to up her b grade.

Halfwaytothemoon, I think you are mixing up predictions and targets. We are given statistically generated targets for our students. Our students have to achieve them or we are held accountable. They are based primarily on prior attainment in English and Maths (for KS4 anyway). A UCAS prediction is just that. What we think they will get. Usually, what we think they will get assuming a good day... It can be above or below their target.

Yyy, TheFallenMadonna.

When Halfway refers to our reputation, it's not a cynical move. Universities need to know that predictions are as accurate as we can make them, bearing in mind all the variables and factors mentioned above. We spend a long time musing over and discussing predicted grades, which may or may not reflect the student's original targets. It's why it hacks us off to get letters from parents saying, "please predict him/her and A/A*/B, as he won't get an offer from [RG Uni] without one. Not fair on the Uni, on the student - or on all of our other students, now and in the future, when it becomes apparent that we have form for over-predicting.

Over-predicted grades also tend to make a student complacent rather than industrious, IME. We have even experienced a student beg for a higher prediction, saw the head of year brow beaten into going along with it - and the student then complaining in August because they didn't get their predicted grade!

It's so true that some DC treat a predicted grade as some kind of fortune telling.
A friend's DC who had mediocre AS results accepted offers based on 3A predictions and missed both by miles. She somehow blames the school that he didn't get the grades they predicted.

I teach the IB diploma, but still have to make predictions, about 3 times in the student's final year.

My heart does sink when parents turn up putting pressure on me to up their child's predicted grade. I have been doing this for a number of years, and very rarely have I under-predicted.

I also sigh when I am told that the student is really working hard now and is determined to improve their grades. I always want to reply to the effect 'why are they waiting till now to work hard, they have been told since the beginning of the course'

I hate predicting grades as it can really mess up the relationship you have built with a student and cause bad feeling. Obviously it is a necessity, but an unpleasant one. I did work in a school where students were not told their predicted, it made things easier, but I'm not sure it is the correct thing to do.

the problem we have with both target grades and predicted grades is they create a ceiling and lower student expectations of themselves. It is very hard for a student to feel they can excel when they are told the are C/D grade student based on how they performed in primary school.

There are lies, damn lies and statistics. Everyone is measured by them - and as commented above there is enormous pressure on teachers for students to achieve the target grade. But as soon as you hand the target you have defined the student and the teacher

One student I know was targeted in C in Business AS

As it turned out he did amazingly well achieving As in the classroom.. his essay were given to others as examples. Got an A in the mock with the second highest mark in the year group. Despite this the teacher wary of over predicting moved the C to a C because GCSE results had been average, and he had always been seen as a C type student.

The student, unsurprisingly upset, began to loose confidence ...still revised hard but overcome by nerves ,as he felt he had to prove something, completely lost it in the exam and just got a C ... the teacher`s comment was .. " he achieved his target grade - he is that type of student . He is not on our radar of concern". Of coarse the predicted grade for A2 is low.

This is in fact a true story, and those were her actual words and this is not the only case like this I am aware of.

And I am sure there are many who think "but he was only capable of getting a C so a C is good" I am pretty sure he thinks that himself.

I am with the notion do you need to tell students .. who is this for... the hours of debate about what grade to predict.. the students, the parents or the school.

NB please do not read any of this as a criticism of teachers - for whom I have the highest respect and who want the best for their students - it is not teachers who are at fault but an education system corrupted by targets.

I will now get off my soap box .. I image to the relief of all.

Of course the students need to be told their predicted grade as otherwise they won't know which uni/courses they can pick.

I would still like to know more about how target and prediction grades are decided.

DS2 has just started Year 12 at a Sixth Form College. He has been told he has a target grade of B- for History but hasn't been given that information for his other subjects. I would like to know if the B- means he is expected to get less than a B for History AS? Also, where this grade is likely to have come from. He achieved a combination of As, As and Bs for GCSE. Is it likely to be the Bs that brought the target grade down? Or the fact that he didn't study History at GCSE? (He wanted to study both History and Geography for GCSE, was initially told he could but was then unable to start History because of timetabling issues). He has an A in English Language and an A in Maths.

He is really enjoying studying History, has received positive feedback for his work so far and doesn't seem to feel disadvantaged by the lack of History GCSE.

Phaedra - I don't think the target grades as AS mean a lot. DD1 has just finished AS - in 1 subject, she was on target, in the other 3 subjects she exceeded her target. Her targets were BBCC - in all 4 subjects, she got an A at Gcse, so I would have expected the targets to be the same.

Thanks mumslife and hellsbells.