Predicted grades in A level?

[halfthewaytothemoon]

My DC has just started at a new sixth form. DC worked hard for GCSEs achieving a grade average of 47.2. DC missed A grade in MFL, English Lang and Maths by just one/two marks each time.

I know Teachers use GCSE grade average to give predicted grades for As/A2 and I am concerned these will low.

Any info would be welcome.

In my experience, it's the child who decides how hard they're going to work, and what their own personal target grades should be. Whatever he is "predicted" or "targeted" won't have any impact on what he actually gets! So, if they're not what he would like, please encourage him to take it with a pinch of salt, and set his own targets, and work harder than he has done before to achieve them.

The predictions that matter are those on his UCAS application form at the start of Yr 13 and they wont predict those until he has his AS results. So definitely not anything to be too worried about right now - he could go a couple of grades either way at this stage, i would have thought

They may well use ALIS tests as baseline data to help with predictions. I wouldn't use performance in wildly different GCSE subjects to make an A Level prediction.

They will use GCSE to predict AS level - so dc should just be aware it's up to him to get whatever he's capable of at AS regardless, because that's what will affect what goes on UCAS.

When AS disappear, what will schools base predictions on?

Interesting... GSCEs, initially, I would guess?
I had always imagined that predicted grades were a sort of mystical thing when I was at school (which, then, they probably were) - 'well, nit seems like a reasonably hard worker and gives the impression of being fairly bright - I dunno, B? A?'. It wasn't until recently I realised how complicated it is - in year 10 we had 'predicted' and 'likely', which profoundly confused me.

Are ASs going, or just not counting any more, though?

Quite a few excellent gcse grade grammar boys have had to enrol at college because they've been kicked out for poor grades.

The boys have had a hard time coming to terms with the fact that just revising the night before for gcse doesn't cut it at a2/as

I remember tracking down my English teacher in the pub at lunchtime and asking h what I was predicted and he said ' what do you think?'

No wonder I got offers!

As for AS I don't know. Will there be funding for national public exams that don't count ? Or will schools set their own?

When I did a levels there weren't any ASs - we still did exams and class work and so predicted grades were based on those.

I was pre-AS too. But have colleagues who I think belonged in phase where everyone took them, and the results 'mattered', but just didn't form a proportion of your A Level grade. I thought that's what we were going back to.

OP's ds will still do AS so predictions on ucas form will be based on those results.

AS as half an A level gets phased out for students starting next September, although several sixth forms I know of still intend to put this first cohort in for AS exams, despite the fact that they won't count towards their final A level grade. Once the new system has fully bedded in though I'd imagine end if year 12 exams / mocks would be the basis for predictions.

Pre AS old timer here too!

I dunno about the mocks - they tend to take place in December of U6 no? Too late for UCAS?

Most schools will still set end of yr12 exams even if they are no longer doing the AS qualification. Predictions will be based on ongoing teacher assessment, end of year results and baseline data.

Not all schools do the baseline tests but the majority do- and they have been around for 30 years so aren't 'new'. Often schools choose to not advertise baseline data results to parents but that doesn't mean they aren't using them behind the school.

It would be a very poor (and very unusual) school that simply based A level prediction on average GCSE performance. It wouldn't be in any way accurate for most students, GCSEs and A Levels are very different qualifications.

Thanks for the responses. A dose of commons sense does wonders for the constitution -

DC1 was given predicted grades extrapolated from the ALIS test and GCSE grade average. It never caused a problem as DC1 achieved all As and A* grades so teacher expectation was high. But as you say they knew her well which must have fed into their assessment.

DC2 has moved school because he failed to achieve the grades in the subject he wanted to take for A level and the new school has lower entry point. Bs and As grades seem good to us but I am sure how this translates when school assess a pupil`s future potential.

I have read GCSE success is the main indicator used by schools to evaluate their pupils but I am not sure how true this is. The school he is leaving were obsessed with target grades and pupil ability as defined by FFT and CATs scores- so who knows

How do schools differentiate between target grades and predictions? What information is used to make these determinations?

Have you considered having his English, Maths and MFL GCSEs remarked? If he was only missing an A by a couple of marks, it is unlikely he would go down to a C but must stand a chance of going up a grade?

Target grades at my school are based on ALPs data which is computer generated from GCSE grades and a bit shit.
Predicted grades at AS are what the teacher reckons the student will get based on in class assessment

UCAS predicted grades for A2 which go on university applications are what teachers predict in y13 when AS results are known. Students can sometimes argue their case for a higher predicted grade if they really need it to apply to a particular Uni - of course they then have to pull the stops out to meet the prediction, with another Uni as a back up in case it goes wrong.

Noble DD1 was told similar about predictions, re persuading them up slightly. But also warned that maths teachers are the least generous, and will never predict above the AS grade.

I was just about to recommend a remark too. Surely worth a try if DC was so close?

Why do they even bother predicting grades? They are more often wrong than right. And one in ten predictions is incorrect by more than one grade.

The universities can see the grades achieved to date and should be able to make up their own minds.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-24625972

Well post-results applications have been mooted..... It would need a whole scale reform of schools exams ucas and universities though!

AS levels as half A levels are on their way out though so predictions will become more important not less.