I had a. DC enter Mainstream Secondary working BELOW NC lvl 1 - she was still working on p-scales in Y6, Reception level work / EYFS work.
She didn't get a statement...
She is currently on SA+, getting MORE than the maximum 15 hours a week help, so should technically have a statement.
(Yes, I've tried repeatedly, that's for another thread).
What I'm actually trying to say is that even my Dd, working below NC lvl 1, is now in Y11, and the majority of her predicted grades are D's and E's, except Maths, where she is currently at a G grade, but pushing to get an F.
And that's starting at a level far below what your DD is. So don't panic just yet, what you need to do is find out what the school does to support those DC's who are not at the 'expected level' for the end of Y6, who don't have a statement.