I understand how many NC levels a child is supposed to go up per year...but what about GCSE levels?

[LondonBus]

If they are a GCSE grade C at the end of Y9 (according to a test paper; no GCSE modules started yet) what grade should be achieved at the end of year 11?

I found this. Am not sure how accurate it is.

End Y9 = GCSE

7b = A
7c = B/A
6a = B/C
6b = C
6c = C/D
5a = D/C
5b = D
5c = E

No one? Maybe I phrased it badly.

I'll go with A/ A* at the end of Y11, then.

I think it's approximately 2/3 of a grade per year.

Each KS3 sublevel is 2 equivalency points above the last, so if they are expected to progress 2 sublevels per year then that would be equivalent to 4 points.

Each GCSE grade is 6 equivalency points above the last, so 4 points would be an increase of 2/3 of a grade per year.

Disclaimer: I am not a teacher, just an interested parent.

Eh? My maths is rubbish.....I'm struggling to work that out!

But thank you.

Those look like something I worked out earlier, too, L-Bus.
I think DS is on target for Cs, so fits with what he's doing, too.

It's supposed to be 4 levels of progress when you compare KS2 to KS4. So a child coming to Yr 7 on a L4 should be L6 at the end of KS3 and a B at the end of KS4.
Basically, it goes
3 G
4 F
5 E
6 D
7 C
8 B
A
A*

So if you start at their KS 2 level in the left hand column then count down 4, it should give you the expected KS4 grade.

6 levels of progress across KS4 is national expectation so if a solid C at start they should be targeted to get a solid A.

7a is not the equivalent of an A. If put students at a level 8 at a B grade

as soon as DD started in year 10 they stopped talking about NC levels and started talking about predicted GCSEs
see what they say next term

got her monitoring today. am very proud of her.

Evil, I thought it was 3 levels progress KS2 to 4?

It would be very unexpected if a child on a level 3 at KS2 managed a C at GCSE (in maths at least, can't speak for other subjects). That would mean they had gone from below expectations to meeting them.

In maths a grade C is roughly equivalent to level 7. So would probably expect an A at GCSE.

Without lots of hard work, they don't mean a thing! IMHO!

Very, very difficult to generalise, as it depends so much on so many other factors, secondary teachers are given such ludicrous expectations to work to.
Being a capable Level 5 at the end of Primary (even if that were to be believed) does not automatically mean that that child will be studious and work hard at their school work and not have other things going on in their lives that will affect them, and that they will 'click' with all subject teachers at the same level, etc.,etc. It might be a generalised picture, for overall statistics, but it's no way to bank on your child getting any particular grade.

You are all taking full levels, just to clarify when I said 6 I meant sub levels eg 4b to 5b or c2 to a2 (knowing the sub levels don't exist)

3 levels is not "good" progress, according to OFSTED. 3 levels is satisfactory, but we all know that "satisfactory" requires improvement.

got DSs monitoring today
not a single externally recognised grade in there
BUT
I'm happy with the homework / presentation / behaviour / effort
as the rest is by the bye
love him to (slightly stinky) bits

Really Evil? FFS Ofsted, a kid who goes from a level 3 to a C hasn't made good progress, they've made astonishing progress.

Ofsted really piss me off when they expect the same progress at secondary from a bright kid who has leapt up the levels at primary, and a kid who has struggled and made less than expected progress.
I know the argument is that we shouldn't lower expectations for kids who have struggled and write them off, but surely we can raise expectations for bright kids.

Actually it isn't quite that simplistic, Ofsted do compare your schools figures against the national average for that group of children. So there is an acknowledgement that bright DCs learn faster than the lower ability group.

However, there is no sensible person tailoring of expectations.

My dyslexic DD1 scrapped (with a scribe) L5 literacy and because she isn't quick and doesn't know her tables L4b maths.

At GCSE she will quite likely get A for maths and C for English buggering the predictions totally

Here's another one dyslexia who is "buggering the predictions totally" Startail!

Science predicted for end of Yr 9 = 5a
End of Year 8 = Level 7
GCSE Grade C predicted with approx 1% chance of A*, about a 5% chance of an A and a 20% chance of a B. But a massive 25% chance of a D!

Level 3 Writing at KS2 SATS
Yr 8 = Top Group English, Level 6 (excellent analysis but crap spelling)

However, Maths looks spot on with Level 4 KS2, end of Yr 9 = 6c and fingers crossed for a C at GCSE (he has been known to take away upside down!)

You have to hope that teachers are always aware of the anomaly kids!

I hope so too, but given some of their setting decisions in the past, I do wonder.

I was going to say, schools would like all their pupils to like DD2 who is exactly WYSIWYG, but even she has taken the hump at German and is refusing to do any.

Schools get it, teachers get it. Unfortunately the higher powers, the ones who make the decisions and judgements, don't get it. So when DC X in my current yr 10 class fails to get the GCSE grade A he is "capable" of because he got a level 5 in KS2 SATs, I will have to explain why. And apparently, pointing out that his attendance was rubbish is just making excuses and not a reason for his lack of progress, as I ought to have made time to ensure he caught up.

Well dd's average gcse target is A so 10 As and 1 A and she'll be deemed to have failed to meet it..... Large pinch of salt needed....

Yes, but her teachers will get the blame.

Which is ridiculous - and there is no chance she will achieve that target!

whereas DDs target is straight A and I'll be well hacked if he does not exceed it.
context is all : hence why it was so so so wrong when Ofsetd threatened to disregard VA data