Is it too early to predict GCSE grades from y7 targets?

[Iamnotminterested]

It's clear a few of us have had parents evenings recently! So, data from school and predicted GCSE grades is based on end of year 9 grades but what would the predicted grades be from year 7 levels? E.g target of 6c in English for end of year 7 would expect to be what grade at GCSE?

ooh, my eldest is year 7 so I'm interested to, good topic OP, thanks!

To answer the question- yes.

Children's achievement does not always move at a steady pace. Someone who is doing well in year 7 can go off the boil by the time they are a stroppy teen. Your child's underlying ability is one factor, motivation and quality of teaching are others. Put all of these together and it means that you'd be unrealistic to predict a grade 4 years in advance. Having said that, kids who are bright are usually going to do well, and kids who are not so bright tend to achieve lower grades- that never changes.

You also need to take into account any changes to the examination system/marking which may well occur in 4 years due to change of government.

Yes, absolutely jumping the gun there.

But...... they do CATS (at least they do in out school) which can be used to find out the likelihood of gaining 5 A*- C? Not exactly predictions although the slip they sent home with ds3's cats in y7 and 8 both had a list of subjects and a predicted grade

I would imagine however it is totally unreliable but interesting nevertheless

Cognitive Ability Tests- CATS- are IQ tests with another name.
Neither of my DCs was allowed to know the results of these tests- we never ever saw the results and my DCs have now left school and graduated.
From what I understand, CATs scores are used to look at whole year groups and trends, rather than individual's performances.

But in any case, as I said before, ability is just one factor which determines achievement- there are other variables which come into play over 4 years.

As a teacher, I can confirm that some pupils' grades are in the lap of the gods even on the day of the exam! Many pupils can be between grades and the exam, how they perform on the day, exam nerves, etc etc all come into play to the tune of a grade or two.

Given Gove's meddling its impossible to predict GCSE grades for Y11 even, with any confidence.

That's exactly what I was going to post, noble!

I've just been informed that DD's predicted grades (Y10) may well bear no resemblance to the grades she gets at the end of Y11...

thanks bella now I know what to say to people who are smug or desperate!

DS was predicted all A* in year 7, well that didn't happen did it. We were still pleased with his grades though. We did think at his predictions.

We were told he had high CAT scores though which I think influenced it.

Can't even predict the syllabus let alone grades!

It's looking like my year 10 son may have a change in syllabus half way through the course! This Government just don't get it when it comes to education, so don't bank on where we will be in five years time.

Friend's DS predicted Ds and Es from CATS but got A*s and As.

Used to think it was, but unfortunately DS2 has not lived up to expectations, both with GCSEs and ASs.

They don't predict attainment based on previous attainment (ie GCSE based on KS2).

GCSE predictions in Y7 are based on aptitude tests, ie VR//NVR, rather than attainment.

There is not an ideal that students will match their expectations come year 11, otherwise there will be little expectation for the school to demonstrate added value.

The Gvmnt (and the press, tbh) like statistics, so they do this whole prediction rubbish based on whole cohorts of "typically achieving" children.
When I was teaching in a Primary in an area with a highly mobile population a few years ago, I remember the HT showing me some paper she'd been given, showing the predicted Yr6 SATS results for the school, based on the information the LA had collected at the end of Reception. What the statisticians couldn't cope with, was the fact there were only 4 children in Yr6, who'd been in the school at the end of Reception. OFSTED will still judge on these 'value added' things though!
I've got 2 dc at secondary (one in 6th form) and all teaching staff have always said to ignore "predicted grades" as they are computer generated statistics and don't take account of the personality of the child, how hard they work, what the teaching is like, when they 'plateau' and when they 'click' with something, what's going on in their home lives, etc.,etc.etc,
Also, the rate successive Gvmnts change the syllabus, it's highly unlikely current Yr7s will ever be doing the same exam structures and syllabuses that the current Yr11s do.

IME it was hard to get a good idea even from the year 11 mocks. Got E in physics and chem. Ended up with two Bs

My DD was slightly above average in year 7 but not hugely so. Predicted Cs and a few Bs in GCSE (Fischer Family trust thingy.)

She started to pull her finger out in year 10.

Got 8 As in her GCSEs and now in the lower VIth predicted 4 As at AS level (actual grades she is achieving in coursework)

Sooo many factors to consider. Year 7 is far to young to predict potential GCSE grades.

In my experience, there is an increasing trend to measure GCSE progress against KS2 levels. All students are expected to make 3 level of progress from KS2. So a level 4 at KS2 would be expected to achieve C at GCSE; a level 5 would be expected to achieve B (at least) at GCSE.

Ofsteds wonderful predicted progress, great for L5s most of whom get As and Bs and make 3-4 levels as long as they and their teachers turn up.

Not so wonderful for L3 and below, who can have all sorts iof social and SNs complicating the picture. Some of them make expected progress against national averages and some, with the best will in the world, don't.

In a school with a relatively small number of lower ability DCs these problems don't average out, enough don't make expected progress and Ofsted mark you down.

As for predicted grades my dyslexic DD1 gets all As and Bs due to her CAT score, but that doesn't require you to spell anything.

DD2 should simply sail through school, except she likes to fit in and is far more susceptible to peer pressure than DD1 so it's fingered tightly x that she doesn't become a rebellious teen.

I would think that it is too early to predict how the current Y7 pupils will perform at GCSE as the exams that this cohort will sit have not yet been written.