GCSEs - how accurate are predicted grades?

[legallady]

So we're well into the gcse exam season and I'm getting mixed reviews from DD - some going well, some not so good and some downright weird

Anyway, as this is our first time around, I got to wondering how accurate that sheet of predicted grades we were given earlier this year is likely to be. Of course, they're only predictions and anything could happen on the day (including chronic lack of revision!) but I'm interested to hear if the rest of you going through this think that your children's predictions are looking accurate or, like us, have you not given it much thought up until now?

My nephew is currently taking his GCSEs at the mo. His predicted grades has in the past moved up and down with the ups/downs matching the ups and downs in his family life at the time.

This would suggest that the predictions were real time IFSWIM.

My predictions were probably fairly accurate with the exception of English. I dropped about a grade in each subject due to failure to revise. English I was predicted an F but achieved an A. My expected grade was based on my performance in the mock exam, I have no idea why I only achieved an F at the mock, it wasn't even difficult. The whole class flunked it. Very odd.

My poor niece was predicted all As and Bs but only achieved Fs. It was obvious that she wasn't an A grade student, she wasn't slightly academic but because she was a conscientious pupil the teachers assumed she would do well. Thankfully education seems to have moved on a bit since then.

Well I hope the predicted grades are more accurate than ds's daily doom dealing!

We have targets rather than predictions, and last year, DS dropped a grade down from what was expected in at least 6 subjects, despite really working hard! I really don't want to worry anyone, it's just that anything can happen! He is now doing ASs and says he now realises "how insignificant gcses are"! His words. Really, they need a C or above in English and maths, and after that, just what they need to go on to the next stage, 6th form, college etc. then it's the ASs and A2 predictions that count to get them to the next stage. Sorry,I just don't think 'predictions' count for much. Hard work and doing their best is what's important. Very best of luck to them all.

Depends how they are decided - based on a mock, teacherss idea of what he will achieve, a target based on KS2 result...

For my eldest they were accurate, but TBH in retrospect I guess it was an easy job to predict her high flying profile because that was how she has always been since year 7. She's also very consistent. We were , of course twitchy and she was never over confident.

DS is sitting exams now. I've not idea without looking what his predicted grades are. THey are no doubt good, maybe a B in french (he hates french but so wants an A!). However for DS he has done lots of modules and knows exactly where he stands and what he has to do in the remaining exams to get an A* . For instance the last chemistry module was a "bit weird" and on reflection he feels h was sucked into a couple of trick questions (how I hate exam post mortems) but knows he needs 60 UMS and thinks that should be "OK".

THe kids grades are tracked constantly with updates and review days with targets dependent on these and it works really well (at least for my 3).

They can only be accurate to the extent that they can predict how the kids will perform on the actual exam days.

The more marks have already been awarded by CA or modules, the more accurate the predications will be. But if they have a bad day or play an unexpected blinder, then they can be off.

I think at DD's school they are based on the mocks and the controlled assessments or ISAs results they have banked where applicable. I assume the teachers at DD's think the students are really motivated and all revise really hard, when the opposite is true in DD's case . If she gets the A/A*s predicted I think it will be to the teachers' credit in instilling the information in her head throughout the course in class rather than homework or revison.

How long is a piece of string?

I think for the most part they are accurate...the mocks are normally pretty similar and practice papers will probably be past papers so it should be accurate. However, sometimes exams through a curveball and you end up with a topic you're not so good at or haven't covered as much so I think most important is to make sure you know a at least a little about everything not just focus on what you're told will 'probably be on the exam'.

Also, I think there's something to be said about the pressure of an actual exam - you know this is the final chance, the most important exam and I think that can affect grades but it affects different people differently. For my friend it meant lower grades - she was great in lessons and exams she didn't think were that important but choked up in the final exams. She still got okay marks but not as good as predicted. I, on the other hand, didn't do much in lessons and didn't try in practice tests so got avergae predicted grades but did my best in the real exams and got much better grades than predicted. So maybe work out if either of those situations may affect predicted grades?

At my last school the predictions were massively out as we were all told to be optomistic, so kids were predicted Cs when I knew months before that the best they would get would be a D but they were more likely to get E because they didn't do any work. So based on that experience I would always have said minles out.

At my current school though, the predictions are pretty accurate. We base our predicted grades on mock exams and then decide if a particular child is likely to improve that grade with a lot of revision or if they are likely to stay at the same grade as they don't bother with much revision. Last year only 10 kids out of 240 did not achieve their predicted grades, so we're pretty good at predictions here.

So basically it depends on the school, the teachers and the method of prediction. Not really that helpful am I?

DCs school makes clear that predicted grades are targets based on what the DC is capable of if they work to the best of their ability. The targets are set at the start of Y10 and am guessing are based on achievement in KS3.