GCSE target and predicted grades

[Kez100]

I've a question on my daughters first year 10 interim report.

She has a target grade for French of a Grade C. The notes say target grades are taken from her past work at this subject. That seems fair to me.

She then has, alongside, a predicted grade of E. The notes say this is the likely grade she will achieve based on work she is doing at the moment.

She has scored grade 1 (the highest) for homework, effort and behaviour.

Is there any obvious reason for the discrepancy? Two grade levels when nothing has - as far as we know - gone wrong. I shall meet the teacher in two weeks, so will resolve it then, but be interested if anyone else has had this sort of thing happen.

When she saw it today her self esteem fell like a log! She questionned why she was even bothering if with all the work she is doing she will still only get an E.

At my DD's school they give a target grade and a forcast grade. The forcast grade is the level they are currently working at. It could well be that the predicted grade is the grade your DD is working at now so there is time to get to a C especially if she is in yr10. I'd give her school a ring to ask for clarification and help if needed.

Thanks. We do have a evening in two weeks where we can ask , so I will clarify then. I hope it's like your daughters report as that would explain it clearly.

We get a current grade, forcast grade and target grade.

Checking again. No, we have just the two.

Even with the 3 it's still a little confusing Kez. Some subjects DS's current level is almost the same as his target and in other's it's a lot lower.

ignore the rogue apostraphe in Others please

As I understand it Target grades are given as either:

a prediction the most likely grade based on past results/work

or

asperational - can be achieved with a lot of hard work and no intervening problems.

I don't think you can correlate the effort and target grades so easily; for example ds has never had less than a 2 for effort/behaviour for any subject, yet he's not predicted more than an E in any subject, and even that isn't guaranteed. All this means is he is doing his best to achieve that level.

Thanks Minxy. Our target is the first one you mention based on previous work. I appreciate what you say about effort etc and, of course, we can't expect every child who puts in grade 1 effort to get a star. I think what I was querying is if she was targetted a c on her past work in French, then why a E prediction when nothing has seemingly gone wrong. It is possible as others have said that she is working at a E level now and the C is a target for her work toward. I hope it is as, although a tough target, she will have two years to get there. If it's not that and they have suddenly changed it to a E as her likely grade following continued hard work for two years, it's quite a concern.

Bruffin, we need a GCSE in statistics ourselves to understand it! I now know what questions I need to ask - what exacly is predicted, is it current year 10 level or a revised end of year 11 expected level. Also if it is current level, by how many grades should a student target themselves to fairly improve by in the two years.

If it really is a grade newly predicted for year 11 then what extra work does she need to do in her subjects - especially French - to get to her target and who is going to set that work becausshyer predicted is off target by one grade on 2 subjects and by 2 grades on French.

Because her (sorry for typing error)

Your stepping into a minefield there Kez.

I think you need to talk to your school and find out how they use their FFT data; from where the predictions are initially generated.

You'll find that YR10 predictions are based predominently on the levels she was achieving in EMS at end of KS2, rather than the level she was working at in French last year.

They are not (supposed to be) set in stone but used as a guide as to what the child could achieve based on past performance and what children in the past have achieved.

You'll find lots of people on here whose DC have been given a C prediction and they've achieved A's.

The data stuff on the Fisher Family Trust site is an enlightening read.

Thanks Minxy, I will find out and then hopefully be enlightened not baffled even more! Can I read the FFt site or is it just for schools?

If I am guessing I don't think they have used her EMS for the French as she had a bad day at the office in her English SAT and going into secondary she had 3A,4C,4B. I know I am completely guessing but that doesn't fit a C grade MFL student profile to me. I could easily be proved wrong though! Won' be the first time.

I suspect your school is setting a minimum target grade of a C for all but the very weakest pupils as a matter of policy. It's also a possibility that they have a policy of setting the target grade higher than the working grade.

She can be a model student in terms of effort and behaviour, but that doesn't mean she will achieve a high grade. Perhaps the E is good for her?

How does she feel she is doing in French? Reports shouldn't come as a surprise. If you do believe there is a discrepancy or something you are missing, then contact the teacher. It is important to know what she has to do to achieve her target and how she is going to get there.

I am eqally baffled by dd's interim report - I am going to talk to her tutor next week, The report LOOKS as if she is predicted As - but has achieved As already, a year before the exams. Which is obviously wrong. Bizarre. Why can'tt ehy make it easy for us?

I have no idea how she is doing in French from a GCSE Grade perspective. All I know is that she always got good reports in KS3 and finished on a Level 5. In terms of study in the past approx 10 weeks, the start of year 10, all appears well. She was, last week, writing a report on what we all did as a family last weekend - using the perfect tense, both avoir and etre and regular and irregular past participles.

Any ideas with that detail?

French is made up of four strands - speaking, listening, reading and writing. It is possible to be good at one and bad at the other. Does she feel that she is weak on any of these compared to her peers?

Perhaps the achievement grade is what she would get if she sat the exam tomorrow. This would, of course, be low because she has barely started the course. If it is a prediction of how she will do if she continues at the current level, then that is worrying.

Please do not worry. I expect the grade given is the grade your child would achieve if th took the eaxm now, so am E is good. With over a years more study they should achieve or surpass their target grade. I have child in Year 12 so have been through all these worries. Good luck to your daughter.

I have asked her and she says she always does well in class on the work required. It is a foundation level class but she and one other girl always seem to the ones who know the most. I asked about the perfect tense and she says that they did do it at KS3 but the work this week covered a lot more verbs in number, many irregular verbs and both avoir and etre.

Not sure that adds any more to what I mentioned above.

Thank Blueberry and Hydeee

I am indeed hoping the E is a prediction if she sits now. I am under no illusion that a C in MFL will be a lot of work for her bu she will be OK with that. What has hit her self confidence is the thought she might continue all this hard work and still get an E.

To put it a bit in perspective, she chose French instead of Art (where she was predicted an A) However, she said she doesn't want to do Art as a career and didn't want to shirk a challenge of a MFL (albeit she knew she was unlikely to be a high grade student but did think she'd get a stab at a C with hard work). I think, when she saw the report yesterday, she just assumed a predicted E was what she would probably get in two years time given the work she is putting in and wondered if she'd made a big mistake. It may be that she has, but thanks to you all for letting me know that it might not be as it looks.

We had a review last week at school - I queried these targets for my dd yr 10 was told they were based on ks3 sats/location (of child and school) and also schools performance so it would seem its not all based on your childs achievement.
DS used to tell me the teachers reckoned on the children improving by 1 grade per year but having said that he didn't meet some GCSE targets and exceeded others so can only be a rough idea.

I have had another look and to be honest I will need to see someone because just as the French seems odd one way, Maths seems odd the other!

The targets for both make sense to me but her prediction for Maths is higher than her target already and I think, in that case, it must be a predcited end of year 11 grade. Ohhhh errr. Looks like there may be some advice needed on the French to get this grade back on target! I will let the teacher tell her that in the meeting and we can discuss how as well. I don't mind helping her (I can speak French to GCSE standard) but I suspect she will accept it better coming from the teacher.

i would imagine that 'C' is the minimum target grade.I mean what is the point of sitting an exam if your target is to fail?