The Edinburgh Question: Labour's tax on private schools

[Eastcoastie]

A group has popped up on FB aimed at parents in Edinburgh who are against Labour's policy of charging VAT on private school fees if they get elected in July. 25-30% of children in Edinburgh are privately educated so the policy is very likely to require big changes to education providers in Edinburgh and some areas of the Lothians.

George Watson's has announced a 9% fee increase for the coming year and according to members of the group, if the VAT policy goes through, they have been told that this will have to be passed on too, so next years fees would likely see a 20% rise plus inflation. Staff at the school are already on a pay freeze and the accounts show an operating loss.

Members of the group have also said that GWC are planning for a loss of 350 students if the policy is enacted.

Heriots parents have been told of a 6% fee increase for the coming year and the school are also likely to pass on the VAT bill next year if enacted too. Parents are being told, if they are unhappy, to leave.

Prior to the policy being announced, Edinburgh's projections for school capacity flagged 9/23 secondary schools as being at or exceeding capacity in 2023, rising to 18/23 in 2027.

How will Edinburgh/Lothians manage even minimal fall out from the private sector?

https://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/downloads/file/22448/secondary-school-roll-projections

They’ll have to increase class size.
With kids being basically forced out of their schools by the Government I’m not sure this post is very appropriate.

You could not vote Labour, then your schools wouldn’t be crammed to the gills

The national maximum class sizes for a single year group are:

• Primary 1 - up to 25 pupils
• Primaries 2-3 - up to 30 pupils
• Primaries 4-7 - up to 33 pupils

The maximum size of a composite class of any age group is 25 pupils.

Sorry that you don't think the post is appropriate. With many state school classes already hitting or very close to hitting these maximum thresholds, i am very worried about the impact and disruption that this policy will have on state educated children, i am equally concerned about the children who will be forced out of the schools they attend because their parents cant keep up with the rocketting fees.

I don't see any winners and felt it important to raise this important issue on the scotsnet and as you suggest, I will not be voting labour.

For the reasons you mention, I doubt Labour would actually act on this proposal when if they win the elections.

In theory it's a good money making idea, but in reality it comes with all sorts of problems

It may well snowball too in terms of impact too, I’m sure a lot of us will try and hang on for this year or longer as the timetable is unclear (we do know it’s an asap priority) and but plan to move at next stage so it’ll take a few years for this to shake out impact wise.

I see labour is claiming both that this will have negligible impact, and also, that the current downturn in private school applications is related to other economic squeeze factors and not their key first things education commitment.

Oh I am sure they mean to do it - it’s a key first things commitment.

I’m not sure it’s possible to predict what will happen, in terms of people leaving private schools. No one knows how many people are sensitive to prices going up. No one except the schools knows exactly what the fees will go up to.
The other thing to bear in mind is that, in my children’s year groups, the private schools are full. I know of a couple of children at state schools because they didn’t get into private schools, for capacity reasons. So there may be children like that that would take the pace of others who were pulled out. Equally, if one school was more affected and had to close then the effect would be even more.

I am certain they will enact it ASAP. Schools rolls are falling. Sciennes primary was 3 P1 classes, now I believe it has fallen to 2.5 classes. This is presumably reflected elsewhere. Those with kids in secondary are likely to ride out the fees. Those not started secondary possibly won’t. Fewer people will start private primary. I think it will result in fewer starting private schooling, rather than children being moved.

I thought the SNP were bad for their headline grabbing sound bite gimmicks but this is a new level of desperation by the Labour Party. Of course it will be a massive vote winner because on the face of it, it doesn’t affect the vast majority of the UK. 7% kids in the UK so 93% of children in state schools…so why should they care? No thought or analysis as to what will happen to those kids displaced and the impact it will have on already oversubscribed schools. The concept that the private schools will just “absorb” and not pass it on to the parents is just complete fantasy. And then of course switch that to 30% in Edinburgh…we are heading for an educational disaster…but hey…it will bring in the Labour votes so all is good. I despair.

I can’t see many pulling their children out (once committed people will usually go without many many things before pulling their kids out of school).

But I can see more people choosing to not start, or to start later than they otherwise would.

Its already having some impact - Canaan Lane, for example, is oversubscribed for P1 already, 2 years after it opened, because fewer are going private this year.

(also partly is the deferral policy - 2023 was a low intake year everywhere, because of the number of deferrals, who are now looking for places).

On the whole I don’t think there’ll be a mass exodus of kids from the private sector looking for places, and hopefully the tax from the VAT will help fund better schooling for those that remain

Edinburgh council are going to need to pull their finger out with school capacity for sure if this goes through. It’s a Labour minority isn’t it? I’d hope they’ll have plans…?

I don’t think GWC is typical though of all private schools in the capital though, I think it’s the most vulnerable to families moving to state.

it’ll be very painful for some, bearing in mind that this policy is months after the latest round of income tax rises and inflation related fee increases. GW, GHS, ESMS, St G etc are exactly the schools and parent groups that will be hardest hit.

we’ve had fee notices for annual rises raising from 4.5-9 percent, if VAT comes in this year we’ll be looking at IRO £9k more across both kids for this year alone.

Sorry and EA of course.

The actual increase that would be passed on from VAT being added is thought to be 14-15% not 20%.

hopefully the tax from the VAT will help fund better schooling for those that remain

I have no faith that this will happen. Extra VAT revenue will go to HMRC…assuming this extra revenue does make its way to Scotland - we have education within the control of the Scottish government who have done such an amazing job on education that we are in the mess we currently are with 30% of Edinburgh kids using private education.

I don’t think we know - it’ll vary a bit by school but it’ll be a number between 14 and 20 percent and who is so say if year 1 VAT savings will be replicable in future years?

we probably don’t have enough detail and all parental planning has to be done on a reasonable worst case basis.

But I can see more people choosing to not start, or to start later than they otherwise would.

I agree with this, I think there will be a big pressure on state primary school places. After the 2008 recession, primary numbers really fell in some private schools. Parents saved money through the primary years and moved their children into private when they were confident they could see it through.

I also think house prices could rise in catchment areas for Royal High, Boroughmuir etc with competition from parents scrambling to get houses in these catchments.
I know some families who've been happy to buy larger houses in Dalkeith, Liberton, Leith but they never intended sending their kids to the local state secondary

@museumum why do you think GWC is more susceptible to families having to drop out?

@ChanWork i completely agree with you. Its always been the case that the higher attaining schools have higher house prices but as you say, if families are discounting private for at the very least, a big chunk of their childrens educations then this will only push up house prices even more.

@Off99sitz completely agree again. Children going to Fettes and Merchiston type schools are likely to be more unaffected although lots of talk of Merchiston allowing girls in to balance the books, but the regular day schools where most children have two working parents will suffer. In 22/23 fees at heriots from P1 to S6 would cost £169k in 24/25 its £198k. Thats huge jump. 10.5% from 23-24 and 6% for 24-25.

I think GWC is at greater risk because it's never full, so presumably doesn't have the pool of waiting list applicants to plug any withdrawals.

If the school roll falls, costs don't reduce so fee increases are even greater

I know plenty of people with kids that failed their admissions test for GWC. Why would that be the case if it wasn’t full?

@Ginny98 thanks, i hadnt considered that. GWC is a huge school with lots of expensive facilities. Very worrying.

Oh, interesting. It's still advertising for 2024 start, so presumed it had space.

The same has been the case the last 3 years

I think it must depend on the year group as they do regularly advertise to apply for their primary.

A lot of families local to GWC I know seriously considered state school options before settling on GWC. For those in the Boroughmuir or Gillespie catchments (or willing and able to move there) the choice to go to GWC was quite marginal. Some of the children started at local primaries before moving to GWC so would still have friends from primary or from other local clubs in the state schools.

After Sciennes primary we started at James Gillespies HS but moved after one year to GWC. JGHS has such an incredibly poor learning environment I’m not surprised to see it being overtaken in the league tables by Firrhill and St Thomas. I wanted to be able to use state school but GWC is so much better. We’re very satisfied with the move.

I think we need to question how quickly Labour intend to get money into the state schools to cover the pupils dropping out of private schools.

So state would be able to have another tier per year, as long as they have enough room (buildings) and teachers for each subject.

Labour need to advance schools this before attempting to turf kids out of their private schools or they will increase the issues that the state sector is already facing.