What makes you think none of those children live in Edinburgh?
Parents send their children to board for lots of reasons. There is no wrap around care for senior school. If you have jobs which involve frequent long days and travel, boarding which has structure and supervised study becomes an option for £12k ish. Employing someone to do sporadic overnights, weekends and wrap around would be difficult and probably cost more.
I agree Cargilfield pupils (not just boarders) are probably irrelevant, they are aiming for English exam boards and often boarding for seniors.
Fettes pupils (day or boarding) might move to another private school to reduce costs.
I presumed the 25% is calculated on the difference between children living in Edinburgh and actually attending state schools. The vast majority of day pupils at Edinburgh private schools do live in Edinburgh often in catchment for the schools that are highlighted in red in that spreadsheet.
A lack of available wrap around care in local primaries is one reason that people who were looking forward to not paying nursery fees end up paying for private schools.
The parents who are paying out of their regular income to send kids to EA, Watsons, Merchiston, St George’s, Heriots and ESMS won’t all be able to cover the regular fee increase plus whatever the VAT ends up costing. Last years fee increase was huge compared to typical increases, 9% this year is also atypically high.
If enough parents pull their kids out, or don’t send them in the first place private schools will close, so where do all the remaining kids go then? Would all the families who can still afford fees find in year places in another private school? EA, Watson’s, Heriots and ESMS do Scottish exams. If your child is in S3 or up you can’t just switch them to a different examination system.
How many kids at edinburgh private schools have additional support needs? How’s that going to be accommodated/funded?
Scotland catchment system means you pay what it costs to live in areas that have “good” schools or you pay school fees. You only have to look at house prices to see the impact of a catchment area. Anything that increases the number of kids using state schools is going to disproportionately impact Edinburgh. Christ knows how ScotGov will deal with it but it’s not only going to impact the families who currently send their kids private, it’s going to impact Edinburgh state schools and all the families whose children attend them.