Who is it going to be then?!

[guinnessguzzler]

Not long to go now until the SNP leadership election results come out. Thought it might be interesting to see who everyone thinks it will be plus any predictions eg, how long they will last, new cabinet, any fresh drama waiting in the wings etc. I reckon it could be Kate Forbes, picking up 2nd votes from Ash Reagan, but then I wonder if those who would vote according to the gender issue will have already left the party.

I don't have a vote and can see problems with all of them btw so interested to hear others' views.

Following with interest. Think it might be Forbes.

It depends on which type of members were left in the party, could be KF easily although we are all supposed to believe its gonna be humza

Useless has been out today giving it the full on ‘I’ll advance women’s rights’ chat, think we’re supposed to be impressed by it🥱

Well, as Shania would say, that don't impress me much.

Humza's campaign has an air of panic about it now, now promising women's rights (with a huge pink heart because obviously all us girlies like that kind of thing) having started the campaign by doubling down on the hugely unpopular GRR bill. I suspect Kate Forbes might just edge it as she definitely comes across as the most competent, and I think the Humza camp thinks the same.

I did vote and hope that enough people also put Kate Forbes as number one as I did

We are up shit creek regardless.

Maybe Kate F? Humza seems to be the one being pushed by SNP machine but not sure how that impacts voters decision making- and whether voters voted straight away or waited awhile? 🤔

Kate will likely get in because of ash's 2nd preferences.

Then Humza will cry foul because he will likely get more in the first round.

If Humza does get it they will lose MPs in 2024 and he will go.

@Aphrathestorm I think that's more or less how I think it will go now. Anyone know what time it will be announced?

Each is a gift in different ways

Humza will be useless
Kate will be competent but split the coalition and party
Ash incompetent and made as a brush

You have summed up my thoughts exactly! Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Is it likely an early election could be triggered, if the Greens leave the coalition? (I would love to see the Greens out of power - I say this as a former supporter).

Honestly? Couldn't care less. I will never vote for the SNP, whoever is leading it. There's a total lack of talent in Scottish politics - from all of the parties - and it's embarrassing how incompetent they all are.

I am not a Nicola Sturgeon fan but she is a competent politician. She plays the game well, runs rings round her useless opponents in the other parties and in her own party. The only one who could challenge her in recent years was Ruth Davidson who was cut from the same cloth as Sturgeon - feisty, no-nonsense, sharp as a tack.

@Chateau I don't know that they would go for an early election, I think they would just live with a minority government. Tbh I think things were better when that was the case previously but I suspect a lot of our politicians have forgotten how to compromise. I do wonder if the Greens would refuse to vote for Forbes (or Regan) as FM but I don't think that would matter, except to add to the drama.

I would agree with this, although I have voted SNP a couple of times, despite having labour membership. The talent pool in Scottish politics just now is woeful. The only politician that stands out to me as being of the same calibre of Sturgeon (and it pains me to say it, but Ruth too) is Monica Lennon, and although I think Sarwar is OK, Labour really missed a trick here.

The problem with the SNP is that the leader's personal politics determines policy, membership and votes, more so than other UK/Scottish parties. They can swing between left and right (Tartan Tories) quite starkly because their unique selling point rests solely on independence, and their ministers and supporters cut right across the left/right spectrum. All it takes is one leadership change to move the party's economic position radically. Sturgeon, progressive/left of centre - and massively competent - so took a massive chunk of traditional labour voters. Someone like Forbes will send huge numbers of current SNP voters back to Labour at the next election(s), including myself, even though I'm pro indy. I don't think any of the candidates are anywhere near competent enough for the position and like you say it is embarrassing, but I think it will be Forbes.

When are the results announced?

I'm hoping that Kate F will win, but know that regardless of who/what party is in government, areas not in the Central belt, will continue to be f*ed.
I once met Ruth D at a work related event years ago - didn't know much about her at the time but said, "my god, I'll vote for her!" after hearing her talk.

According to Sky News:-
Once nominations have closed, the ballot will then open at midday on 13 March and close at midday on 27 March.The party said its national secretary will make the results of the contest public as soon as the result has been determined and after the candidates have been advised.

I would love it to be Forbes but it’s going to be Yousless, no doubt about it. Scotland - and the SNP - are fucked. No-one wins with him at the helm and with more of the same incompetence, with the same old puppet masters pulling the strings.

Yes this. I think Humza will win by a whisker. Although everyone I know has voted for Kate.

I think we'll find out soon whether SNP membership want more of the same or are ready for a change.

I hope the party don’t vote for Kate and her appalling views. I don’t think they will.

I found this an interesting read. I think she's just more honest about her views than Humza, who to an extent, has similar beliefs

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-kate-forbes-is-still-the-snps-best-hope/

I heard on the radio that most snp members are aged over 50 and more males than females.
Going to be interesting....

If by appalling views you mean her personal beliefs on same sex marriage and abortion then providing she keeps them out of the workplace as she has committed to doing them I don’t have a problem with that.

If you mean moving away from the current shitshow and focusing on the economy, protecting safe spaces for women and girls, growing consensus for independence and reviewing the hold that the (tiny) minority Greens have on Govt then that can only be a good thing.