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Scotsnet

Welcome to Scotsnet - discuss all aspects of life in Scotland, including relocating, schools and local areas.

Heading into winTier ..... the one we hoped it would be over before...

980 replies

dancemom · 04/11/2021 10:58

New thread Tierers ...

OP posts:
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17
ResilienceWanker · 16/02/2022 13:47

Yes - Ii saw that about the 5-11y vaccines. It seems a bit weird though. The BBC article says JCVI have issued "draft" guidance - and that Scotland and Wales are just going for it based on that. But it's not clear what the guidance actually is. If they are saying "yeah, go for it - its safe and has clear benefits for the children" then why is it still draft - and why haven't they made a 4-nations announcement like they usually do?

Its possible it does say that - and England is just playing silly-buggers...not wanting to prolong the period where we're all thinking about it, or cutting costs, or something. Though if the guidance is really clear cut that it is beneficial, I can't see (even the current) UK government going against that.

My feeling is that actually the JCVI guidance is a bit more fence-sitty than that. Like the recommendation for 12-15yo was - that there is a small risk, and a small benefit but overall they didn't recommend it given the risk from covid itself in that age was tiny - but then the CMOs made a decision based on factors other than just the safety and benefit to the children themselves (reducing school disruption and so on - yeah - like that's worked a treat...). Obviously we now have 6 (?) months more data on vaccine effects in 5-11yo from other countries, and it may well be that actually now we know the vaccine is fine - so we may as well go ahead, even if the risk of covid is similarly small...

But to be honest I'd like to see the JCVI guidance in person - and not just what Nicola, Humza and Jason are telling me it is, thanks...

dancemom · 16/02/2022 14:12

• 7,449 new cases of COVID-19 reported.
• 16 new reported deaths of people who have tested positive
• 13 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 912 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,429,337 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination, 4,145,785 have received their second dose, and 3,366,018 have received a third dose or booster

OP posts:
patritus · 16/02/2022 16:49

Mine are older teens and fully vaccinated.
I don't think I'd get it if they were primary age. Not sure what the benefit would be. It doesn't seem to stop the spread, particularly with Omicron. Covid is such low risk to that age group I'm not sure I'd put them through getting the jag.

dancemom · 17/02/2022 14:01

• 7,144 new cases of COVID-19 reported.
• 22 new reported deaths of people who have tested positive
• 11 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 944 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,429,979 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination, 4,146,918 have received their second dose, and 3,371,691 have received a third dose or booster

OP posts:
ResilienceWanker · 17/02/2022 14:21

Continued thanks dancemom!

But why are hospital numbers going up...?! At least numbers in ICU are very low and continuing to fall, and I suppose that's the vaccine effects, plus better treatment generally (and, overall is the most important measure, I think). But it would be great if cases and hospitalisations decreased in line with the rest of the country. Our average case levels don't seem to have moved for the past month or so, whereas the rest of the country is decreasing.

It just seems odd as the messaging seems to have got more positive recently (even in Scotland) but the numbers don't really seem to have changed much from when it was all "essential bus journeys only" mid January...

IKeptYouLikeAnOath · 17/02/2022 14:32

Weird isn't it?!

titsintiers · 17/02/2022 14:35

Maybe just more people in hospital with covid as circulation is still relatively high in general

mibbelucieachwell · 17/02/2022 14:36

Disappointing that hospital numbers are going the wrong way? Are Scottish reported cases a smaller percentage of actual cases than rUK? But if so, why? Are Scottish hospitals admitting a higher percentage of cases than previously? Is hospital acquired covid going up?

?? Sad

patritus · 17/02/2022 14:46

According to @dancemom last time we had 11 people in intensive care was last April (I know, I know I should get a lifeBlush) and there were 81 in hospital.

Today we have 11 in intensive care and 944 in hospital 🤷🏼‍♀️
Very odd!

My money would be on Omicron is so infectious people are going into hospital with something else and catching it in there.

Y0uCann0tBeSer10us · 17/02/2022 14:55

"Our average case levels don't seem to have moved for the past month or so, whereas the rest of the country is decreasing."

I haven't checked the UK numbers in a while @ResilienceWanker but it's quite striking isn't it, how cases in all the other UK nations are dropping quite steadily for the last few weeks but Scotland is totally flat. ZOE (which I much confess I'm losing faith in as it seems out of step with the rest) also has Scotland increasing again. I struggle to understand this, because all four nations should have equal access to testing, and it's not like Scotland is doing more testing than say England (our percentage positive is generally higher, which suggests less testing if anything). In addition we are the only ones still dragging feet about releasing restrictions so it's not like people are running wild and free here but being 'cautious' elsewhere (again, quite the opposite). It couldn't actually be that our policies are making things worse could it? Maybe encouraging riskier behaviours under the radar or something because 'officially' there are still restrictions? I really don't know - I would expect that things would be the same across the UK at this point because the restrictions we've got don't seem to make much impact on Omicron (mask mandates certainly don't), but things actually seem to be worse up here which I find surprising.

ResilienceWanker · 17/02/2022 15:03

I think that could be it tits. I don't think the hospital numbers really mean covid is getting worse, or reflect any major increase in case prevalence... It's probably just that when a lot of people have covid in the community, you'd expect (at least) that proportion to end up in hospital, just by chance - but it's not going to be exact... There may be 50 or so one way or another without it really meaning much I suppose.

I've been wondering about the comparative reporting of tests between Scotland and rUK too. According to the ons data, Scotlands infection rate does seem to be going up (from memory its been 1 in 25/30 the past few weeks, and now it's 1 in 20/25) but the numbers reported every day don't seem to be increasing comparatively. I wonder if people in Scotland are just reporting positive LFTs less over the past couple of weeks? (Or not getting a PCR when they probably should). But the ONS data for England is still suggesting 1 in 20 people...(I know there is a lag, so that may not be exactly the case at the moment) so the infection rate is actually still higher in England than Scotland. However, proportionately, Scotland is reporting about 50% more positive covid tests than England. (yesterday the gov dashboard had 40something thousand cases in England and 7k in Scotland... Working on the principle that England has about 10x the amount of people, you'd have expected Scotland to be more like 4k!) So I have no clue!

ResilienceWanker · 17/02/2022 15:37

It couldn't actually be that our policies are making things worse could it?

Ha! Can't believe you could think that youcannot!

That could be part of it, definitely, given that masks etc do seem to be pretty pointless, especially given their only partial and declining use in scotland. I suppose its possible that insisting on them could be pushing some people away from relatively "safe" public activities (in large, ventilated public spaces, with some degree of distancing etc, and maybe even air filters...), and back into meeting with people in private, in small, unventilated rooms? In the main, I'm back to thinking that whatever we do (or don't do) in terms of restrictions is pretty pointless... The virus is going to spread regardless, and sometimes cases will be higher in Scotland, and sometimes in Wales, and sometimes in England, seemingly pretty randomly! There may be some innate vulnerabilities (the usual that Scotland isn't great at, as we've discussed before.. . Vitamin d, poor diet, generally poor health etc etc) and there may be some things we can do personally if we feel we really mustnt catch it (avoiding unnecessary contacts etc). But beyond vaccines, and addressing actually potentially useful things like air filtration in unventilated spaces, I think it's probably just random...

IKeptYouLikeAnOath · 18/02/2022 11:17

I have a question, wondering if any of you have the answer?

DS is on Dasy 6 of isolation so just took a LFT to see if he can come out of it early, but he's still positive.

I know it says you should still report the result, but if I do, is he going to get sent back to the start of the process with new isolation dates etc? I'm not convinced the system is smart enough to deal with LFTs for the purpose of exiting isolation...

ResilienceWanker · 18/02/2022 13:18

Hmm. Good question... It seems very unclear online - all about what you can do with negative day 5/6/ 7 tests, but not how to treat positive ones! My feeling would be to not bother reporting. They may well have a procedure to recognise them as a "repeat" positive test (and they wouldn't be counted in the daily stats, as those have a 90 day period before it's recognised as a new infection) but I wouldn't put it past them to start test and protect again, even within those 90 days (like they do if you have 2 positive PCRs close together).

You're not changing your behaviour as DS already isolating, and even if they told you to restart isolation, there's no way they would know if you didn't (plus there's no fines etc for not doing so, even if they did somehow find out). So reporting the second one, even though it's the "right" thing to do seems pointless, in terms of the stats and in terms of how you would respond to a positive test... But may cause a bit of hassle you could probably do without, I'm sure!

Hope he gets the all clear soon Flowers

IKeptYouLikeAnOath · 18/02/2022 13:43

Yes I had all the same thoughts as you, and haven't reported it - I only will once he tests negative I think.

I suspect it'd be the usual shitshow and we'd end up with another set of isolation dates 🙄

ResilienceWanker · 18/02/2022 14:05

Well, yes...If asked my opinion whether it will be a shitshow or not, going by past experience - I'd go for shitshow every single time... Grin

IKeptYouLikeAnOath · 18/02/2022 14:11

God, I'd be as well changing my name to The Usual Shitshow at this point...

TheUsualShitshow · 18/02/2022 14:11

Ooh and it was available Grin

dancemom · 18/02/2022 14:47

• 7,056 new cases of COVID-19 reported.
• 16 new reported deaths of people who have tested positive
• 10 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 960 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,430,717 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination, 4,148,237 have received their second dose, and 3,377,893 have received a third dose or booster

OP posts:
ResilienceWanker · 18/02/2022 14:47

Amazing! Grin You are the Spirit of the Times...

ResilienceWanker · 18/02/2022 14:48

Thanks dancemom! Ooof - hospitalisations up a bit again today. Booo...

patritus · 18/02/2022 16:09

Anyone else noticed that UK hospitalisation numbers, particularly ICU, are now much lower than many other European countries?
These are the numbers that really matter, not a positive test result.

France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Switzerland, Netherlands all have many more people in hospital per head of population.
Wonder why that is? They all have high vaccination uptake now.

WouldBeGood · 18/02/2022 16:47

It seems that Strong Measures make things worse…

Y0uCann0tBeSer10us · 18/02/2022 16:48

@patritus

Anyone else noticed that UK hospitalisation numbers, particularly ICU, are now much lower than many other European countries? These are the numbers that really matter, not a positive test result.

France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Switzerland, Netherlands all have many more people in hospital per head of population.
Wonder why that is? They all have high vaccination uptake now.

I don't know, but perhaps it's the relative lack of natural/hybrid immunity? I have the impression that most of Europe went harder with suppression policies and lots of studies are now showing that hybrid immunity is best. Also, have they been vaccinating the 'right' people? Lots of countries have inflated vaccination numbers because they jag children who aren't at risk anyway, but vulnerable groups may not be as well covered as here where essentially everyone is jagged.
patritus · 18/02/2022 17:03

but vulnerable groups may not be as well covered as here where essentially everyone is jagged.

That's a good point @Y0uCann0tBeSer10us
I was quite shocked at the numbers in intensive care in some countries. France with similar population size has 10x more in ICUConfused
I also wondered if AZ was doing a better job than 1st thought?

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