Heading into winTier ..... the one we hoped it would be over before...

[dancemom]

New thread Tierers ...

@rookiemere

I'm due to have my booster tomorrow. I do find it somewhat ironic that the booster will - as it's happened with DH and most of my friends - result in me feeling a bit rough and sleep deprived with a headache for a couple of day - , much like I would feel with the effects of the Omicron virus that it's protecting me against .

I had no symptoms. Not even a sore arm. I had two AZ previously. Hopefully you will be fine :)

I had 2 x AZ then a Pfizer, and the flu jag at the same time. Didn't have a sore arm, but felt a wee bit wabbit the next day, that's all.

I see there's a COBRA meeting at 5pm, and the leaders of the devolved nations will attend.

I reckon either BJ will resign or it'll be more restrictions. I fear being disappointed

Boris will never resign. He has way too much of an ego for that.
It will be restrictions.

Well we’re now at the point where the worst case scenario from HPS’s evidence paper was predicting a median of 15k per day, up to 25k per day. Even with daily lags in testing I think we can safely say we’re not there, and instead seem to be tracking the central estimate. UK wide I’m also surprised that growth has stalled too, even considering the day of the week effect, since we have been told to expect a very high peak.

I don’t see how extreme measures can be justified when the data (real world) are only tracking central estimates and are not in worst case territory. Especially with all the recent evidence suggesting omicron drives less severe disease.

The acceleration in cases seems to have halted. Perhaps people's behavioural response starting to show and maybe means less need for severe restrictions

From Nicola's tweets this evening I don't think she's been given enough for widespread business closures. Fingers crossed this plus the more positive than feared COVID situation (either because of model weaknesses, behavioural changes or anything else) means no additional restrictions.

Yes the bits DH has been reading from various sources suggest any restrictions won't be until NY now, which isn't as good as no restrictions, but hopefully means Christmas is ok and that they're trying to delay making a decision on it.

@mibbelucieachwell

Hospital numbers slightly up on yesterday unfortunately.

Test positivity up too, suggesting @ResilienceWanker's theory that some people will be less likely to test if the household has to isolate is probably right.

Dunno! There's a steady increase in test positivity, and has been since the beginning of the month, but there doesn't seem to be such a clear pattern in test numbers. If anything there's a general increase in those too, even after the contact isolation requirement was announced, though its really "spiky" depending on the day of the week (weds and Thurs are the days to test, apparently...). Will be interesting to see if the school hols cause a noticeable decrease - or if testing in the older ages and "pre-meet up testing" masks that. In any case, when the ONS data catches up in a couple of weeks we can see if testing reluctance or a flurry of tests has had much impact on numbers/rates.

Testing in England seems to be increasing too (despite what MN is saying) though there are a few days lag on their figures.

I agree on the increasing unlikeliness of any imminent/ pre Christmas lockdown. But having said that, I have probably jinxed it! I just don't think there's the money from NSs point of view, or the will from Bojos point of view. And even allowing for weekend anomalies, the case numbers don't seem to be doing as badly as feared for whatever reason. Fingers crossed...

I'm a bit worried about the aftermath of my booster tomorrow too. Hope you're feeling OK rookie! DH had his yesterday and is fine, but he has the constitution of a cockroach and is never ill with anything. I'm thinking I probably shouldn't have booked it at the beginning of my busiest week for ages... Ah well.

@ResilienceWanker I'm feeling ok apart from a sore arm and being a bit crotchetybut I may not be able to blame that on the booster. I've been drinking loads of non alcoholic fluid and will take a couple of paracetamol tonight as a precautionary measure.

Ah good. That sounds promising! Hope you stay OK. I told DH he should do that, and he downed a pint and refused precautionary paracetamol as "I don't have a headache" . Stubborn git...

@sparkle17

The acceleration in cases seems to have halted. Perhaps people's behavioural response starting to show and maybe means less need for severe restrictions

Cases since the start of the pandemic have mostly always dipped at the weekend.

Also there has been issues at the labs, hence the lower numbers (In Scotland)

I'm currently drawing up plans A-Z for the next couple of weeks, depending on different scenarios re lockdowns/staying healthy/catching omicron etc. I know some will say this isn't helpful but I need to feel in control in whatever small way I can.

One thing I can't figure out though, and unless I've missed something, the Scotgov website doesn't spell this out. It's just me and DH at home. If he tests positive and I test negative, I understand that I need to isolate for the full 10 days too. If I then get symptoms on, say, day 9, I'll have to do a further 10 day isolation but will DH have to isolate again too or will his isolation end as planned?

I'm so torn on where I stand with omicron. I do absolutely understand the pressure on the NHS and the need to avoid overwhelming the system but at the same time, wherever I turn, people seem to be far more worried about the isolation than the action illness and it's the isolation which is helping the NHS but causing other services to fail.

turtlebeach Totally understand your scenario planning! As I understand it, and what used to be the case (don't know if it's changed) was that once your 10 day isolation finished, that was it, regardless of whether anyone else in your household tested positive on day 10 or before. Though of course, they would have a longer total isolation, but you wouldn't have to extend your isolation (assuming you didn't still have a fever). However, if they came ill on day 11/12, once they'd been out of the house, you would all need to start again.

There was a helpful diagram thing - like at the bottom of this page - but ignore the 14 days, it's just 10! But as I say, it may have changed, though I can't see anywhere that says it has...

I didn't not think it's changed. I thought no you're good to go after your 10 days as @ResilienceWanker has described

think - thought no
Bloody autocorrect

Thank you both. This is what I thought so I'm just hoping there is no change. Again this comes down to control and scenario planning. I can work from home but DH can't. I'd probably go a bit crazy cooped up for a potential 20 days but it's do-able. So I'm thinking that if DH were to test positive in the coming days, I probably wouldn't isolate from him in the house (we'll take precautions, sleep in separate beds, use separate toilets and sit as far apart as possible, open windows etc) but, assuming he is well enough - we'll still have christmas dinner together and be in the same room to watch some films etc. If I then catch it, then we'll deal with than but at least DH will be able to go back to work after his 10 days.

If I test positive though, we can't risk DH potentially being off work and only getting SSP for a double-isolation period so we would have to go full on separation - me in the spare room 100% of the time with no coming together at all so that he has the best chance of staying negative throughout. This feels like a very depressing prospect over the festive period.

It's a strange state of affairs when you hope that you will both test positive rather than one of us remaining negative (I mean, obviously the real hope is for continued negativity for both of us).

• 6,734 new cases of COVID-19 reported*
• 49,213 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results*
◦ 15.2% of these were positive
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive (noting that Register Offices are now generally closed at weekends)
• 38 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 516 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,372,129 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination, 3,993,642 have received their second dose, and 2,561,480 have received a third dose or booster.

• Public Health Scotland note there continues to be an impact on turnaround times between specimens being taken and results reported, due to larger volumes of tests being processed by labs. •

Hospital numbers up.

Positivity up.

I got a text from my GP/health board last night. Anyone had anything similar?

Dear Mrs XXXXX In response to the current Omicron outbreak and on advice from Ayrshire and Arran Health Board, XXXXX XXXXX Medical Practice has moved to deliver emergency care only until further notice. All routine appointments already booked will remain though no further routine appointments will be made for the time being. Please see our website and Facebook page for further information and updates.

This is ridiculous @WeAllHaveWings
The non-covid death numbers are up in Scotland.
People with heart and lung conditions (of which we have many in Scotland) are being discouraged from seeking help for their long term conditions.
And they're dying as a result. But they don't matter as it's not covid.
And this has been going on for 21 months now

• 5,242 new cases of COVID-19 reported*
• 39,493 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results*
◦ 14.9% of these were positive
• 9 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
• 37 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 515 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,373,917 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination, 3,997,192 have received their second dose, and 2,630,615 have received a third dose or booster.

• Public Health Scotland note there continues to be an impact on turnaround times between specimens being taken and results reported, due to larger volumes of tests being processed by labs.

I’m absolutely gutted at the latest announcements. I hate that football is being made a target again on the assumption that they could become super spreader events

@SpiritInTheNight, I'm gutted too. We had concert tickets and I was looking forward to that, but she's just cancelled it. It's weird because usually if an event gets cancelled I'd just brush it off, but that was the one thing like that we had planned in the whole of the last couple of years, and I just feel like can't I just have one thing to look forward to without NS pissing all over it?

I just feel like the negativity and threat of freedom being removed is constantly there, whether the data support it or not. It's always the worst possible spin, like apparently there being "no compelling evidence that Omicron is intrinsically milder than previous strains" which misses the point spectacularly. There is very strong evidence that omicron infection is milder, and it might well be that part of that is due to prior immunity rather than an intrinsic property of the virus. But this DOESN'T MATTER if you have high levels of prior immunity, which we in the UK do! The only thing that matters is that in most cases it is milder (for whatever reason) and therefore puts less pressure on the health service. I'm actually feeling quite angry at this massive backwards step as it seems like such an overreaction, and there's nothing to aim for or look forward to.