More good news re Scotland ( Times Article Below) .
Fall in Covid patients beats best-case scenario in Scotland
Mark McLaughlin
Saturday February 13 2021, 12.01am, The Times
The number of coronavirus patients in hospital is expected to fall sharply
The number of coronavirus patients in hospital is expected to decline sharply as the lockdown and the vaccination programme significantly reduce the rate of transmission, according to the latest projections.
Official figures shared with Downing Street suggest that the number of Covid-19 patients in English hospitals will fall from the nearly 20,000 now to 9,000 by mid-March. In Scotland there were 1,470 coronavirus patients yesterday, a drop of more than a quarter from the peak of 2,050 three weeks ago.
The decline north of the border is running ahead of the best-case scenario, which was that cases could fall below 1,000 by early March.
However, progress remains precarious and Holyrood government forecasters warned that cases could rise again if progress was not sustained, and the World Health Organisation said Scotland must go even further to bring the virus under control.
In England the number of daily hospital admissions is expected to drop from 1,531 to about 500, and the number of deaths will fall from 657 a day. This means that within a month the three key indicators will all have returned to levels similar to October, when the second wave was starting to emerge.
The projections, which have been drawn up by the Spi-M group of scientific advisers, came as Westminster estimated that the R number — the rate of transmission — had fallen below one for the first time since July.
Government scientists said that infection rates were falling faster than anticipated and that they were increasingly optimistic about the reopening of schools in England on March 8 and the relaxation of other restrictions in April.
However, social distancing restrictions are expected to remain in place until the autumn at the earliest.
The projections are likely to lead to increased pressure on Boris Johnson from Tory MPs to accelerate the reopening of the economy. They called for all restrictions to be lifted by May.
In other developments:
• There were 15,144 new cases of coronavirus reported, with the seven-day total down 26.3 per cent on the previous week as the total number of lab-confirmed cases in the UK since the start of the pandemic exceeded four million. There were 758 deaths, with the seven-day total down 27.1 per cent.
• Checks at the border between Scotland and England moved a step closer after negotiations to convince UK ministers to enforce Holyrood’s tough quarantine measures broke down.
• Scotland vaccinated a higher proportion of residents than any country in Europe over seven days.
• Official figures showed the economy grew by 1 per cent in the final quarter of last year, above expectations, but still suffered its worst annual performance in more than three centuries.
• The Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer told The Times that taxes should not rise while the economy is recovering.
The WHO advises that coronavirus becomes easier to control when test positivity falls below 5 per cent for a fortnight. The 14-day average in Scotland is 6 per cent.
Dr Margaret Harris, a WHO infectious disease expert, said 5 per cent was merely the upper threshold of its guidance and Scotland should aim to get positivity as low as possible.
She told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland: “What you would really like to see is under 1 per cent if you’re looking at really stopping the transmission. Zero per cent would be even more brilliant but you want to know that you’re testing widely as well.
“As for the lockdown, I can see from the curve [Scotland] is doing really well but that’s when it gets tricky. Now is not the time to stop — now is the time to really do it carefully and make the most of what you have achieved.”
It has taken a month to get test positivity down from a peak of 12 per cent in early January to its present level. This slow progress will be even harder to maintain if younger and older pupils go back to school as planned on February 22.
There were 4,232 deaths in the first wave of coronavirus, which finally flattened out at the end of August. Cases began rising again when pubs reopened and international travel resumed.
Linda Bauld, chairwoman of public health at the University of Edinburgh, said Scots should prepare for several weeks more lockdown followed by a summer of staycations and social distancing. “We will be seeing face coverings certainly for the rest of this year and future winters, given the progress we have made.