How much time between May election and another indyref

[Amy909]

How much time do you think there would need to be (as a minimum) between the May elections and another independence referendum? Could it conceivably be held in 2021? Getting nervous as if this is on the cards we want to sell up and move before it happens. Not done this yet even though it is constantly being pushed as wanted to stay while kids are small to be near grandparents. I’m finding it hard to judge what the timescales could be. Also if it was announced it might be harder to sell our house if we wait too long

It will need to go through the courts because Westminster have said no to another referendum so not this year.

(I have hope SNP will not do as well as they think in May)

We're in the same boat OP and planning to put our house on the market in the spring. It's looking inevitable now and I cannot stand the thought of living through another referendum campaign so we're jumping before we're pushed.

@LizzieMacQueen yes I guess that might delay things and buy some time not sure how long a legal challenge etc would take

@poppet31 yes it’s getting to feel like that. I’m really sad as otherwise we are happy here, settled and love being close to family etc. But terrified of stuck with a mortgage (only having recently bought our house) and all the financial worries now we have kids. Last one I was renting and no DC and was still worried but the consequences are much greater this time

I've been been reading Wingsoverscotland a lot later despite being very much a unionist (mainly for the SNP critique). He had a lot to say about the latest SNP plan for independence and points out a lot of the flaws. Essentially there is no reason why Westminster would agree to another section 30, especially if polls show they're likely to lose, so the SNP's plan then becomes try to force it in the courts which is in no way guaranteed to succeed. I know it feels like there is a lot of momentum for it, but there are still huge hurdles to even getting Indyref off the ground, let alone winning it.

Having said that, I am also starting to wonder if I should have an escape plan if it does happen. I totally understand wanting to sell up before a property value crash, but on balance I don't want to uproot the family for something that might never happen.

Is it not all grandstanding currently? I can't see another referendum this year as covid will still not be under control and Brexit ramifications are still being unpicked. Also I think she'd want a clearer stance from the EU, as that will sway a lot of voters.

@Y0uCann0tBeSer10us I know it’s such a huge decision I’m just worried if we leave it til it is a certainty we will be stuck

@MrsAmaretto potentially I find it hard to judge how much is real momentum or how much is grandstanding. I guess I’m a natural worrier and in this instance feel the consequences would be huge for our family so just anxious about it all the time

@LizzieMacQueen

It will need to go through the courts because Westminster have said no to another referendum so not this year.

(I have hope SNP will not do as well as they think in May)

I hope so too but it needs people who really remember how divisive the last 2014 'once in a lifetime' Referendum was, to turn out to vote anything except SNP/Green. Turnout is not usually particularly high in the Holyrood Elections. The 2014 IndyRef vote divided families but as we saw with Brexit, 52% to 48% is not a good basis upon which to change the status quo for an unknown future. I voted Remain but accept the Brexit result. I would like the SNP to respect the 2014 IndyRef vote. How many expensive divisive votes do you have to have until the SNP is satisfied? (I know their answer obviously!) People made decisions about jobs and buying houses on the strength of 'No' winning the last vote. This ongoing uncertainty causes inward investment to Scotland to dry up and I don't see how proposing an unauthorised Referendum in their Manifesto doesn't exceed their devolved powers. It's a bit Trumpian to be honest. The SNP should get on with running the country within their already extensive devolved powers and stop focussing beyond their remit.

This ongoing uncertainty causes inward investment to Scotland to dry up and I don't see how proposing an unauthorised Referendum in their Manifesto doesn't exceed their devolved powers. It's a bit Trumpian to be honest. The SNP should get on with running the country within their already extensive devolved powers and stop focussing beyond their remit.

Exactly this.

Don't you think that now that a majority of Scottish people want Scotland to be independent, as per the last 20 polls on the matter, that it's only democratic to have a vote on the matter? The last one was back in 2014 and we've had Brexit since then. Surely the sooner the better. Doesn't every country have the right to self determination?

If England wanted independence (lol) would they have to wrest permission to have a referendum? No they bloody well would not.

You only have to type 'vote' or 'referendum', by the way, you don't always have to tack 'divisive' on - your panic is showing.

Do you still believe in the accuracy of opinion polls?

Wings actually had something interesting to say on the polls too (in a different context obviously). If you ask people a specific question you'll generally get an answer as people like to give an opinion, but that doesn't mean the question is important to them, and in fact the issue of independence usually comes quite far down the list of priorities. I really don't think there'd be mass outrage if Westminster just said no again (and actually already have). I suspect actually that even a lot of independence supporters would rather wait until things settle after the pandemic/Brexit etc.

The Keatings case will establish very soon (next week, maybe!) whether Holyrood needs to ask for permission to hold indyref2. It'll probably be appealed (either way) and may end up in the Supreme Court, but should be fully dealt with in a matter of months as it's such an important constitutional issue.

Indyref2 a week later.

@Nyx If you are in favour I totally respect your right to your opinion. Likewise I’m also entitled to my opinion that I think it would be detrimental to my family and hence my asking re timeframes. Yes my panic is showing but I think that’s only natural given what I believe (not claiming to know just my opinion) the implications would be. Not trying to avoid democracy but I do think it would be fair to give people enough notice so that those who don’t wish to go through it again have time to make plans and move.

The last thing Scotland needs right now is an independence referendum. We’ve got the uncertainty of Covid and Brexit -surely better to let things settle down first ( please!) . Life is stressful enough without more bitterness between friends and colleagues.

SNP would need to be voted back in first and I for one will not be voting for them this time (usually a die hard SNP voter). Mainly due to the shit show they have made of my children’s education even before covid and even worse now but also because they think it’s appropriate to start putting together their independence stuff now? Really?maybe they should put as much work into getting vaccines out and getting kids back to school as their independence stuff.

@AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii

SNP would need to be voted back in first and I for one will not be voting for them this time (usually a die hard SNP voter). Mainly due to the shit show they have made of my children’s education even before covid and even worse now but also because they think it’s appropriate to start putting together their independence stuff now? Really?maybe they should put as much work into getting vaccines out and getting kids back to school as their independence stuff.

Hope there are many more like you AlaskaThunderfuck...but as I am sure you are aware, you and others like you, do need to actually vote for a party other than SNP/Green to have an impact, not just abstain from voting at all. Many people don't bother already to vote in Holyrood elections and yet so many things are within the remit of the 'winning party' and worse than that people in the rest of the UK including the media believe the SNP when they claim to speak for the whole of Scotland. As Gordon Brown said in 2014, the SNP does not own Scotland.

Sadly I’m fully expecting they will get in again and claim a mandate (even though their actual % of the vote and definitely the population (including non voters) will be a minority. Maybe legal challenges will delay things and buy time

I will be voting for a different party

What I hope is that people learn from Brexit in that what you think you are voting for and what the final deal is maybe very different and at best hugely disruptive and at worst disastrous.

Are you talking about leaving Scotland before any potential referendum or getting back there before?

Is it seen that there will be a house price crash there after independence if it happened? Why would that be?

Sorry for my ignorance!

@1990s I want to leave before a referendum. Not only just worried about a house price crash but being tied to a mortgage in pound Sterling and no idea of new currency etc and conversions etc. Potential rapid devaluation of any new currency which if my job survived I would presumably be paid in. Worse if I lost my job and the market contracts plus left with an impossible mortgage. I just want to note that I’m not trying to pretend that any of that is definite at all and no currency plans have been set out. Perhaps this is a worst case scenario. Just a personal thing as I’m a risk averse person in general and have a young family to think of.

Thank you for explaining Amy909

I hadn’t really understood any of those issues, so this was illuminating.

I see where you're coming from (though I was pro indy last time). I guess in terms of your worries I'd ask how realistic it is that you wouldn't have plenty of time to sell up and move, given the inevitable gaps between an election and a referendum, and a referendum and a final exit. I'm not super keyed-into the housing market but my observation of local trends is that despite the Brexit referendum etc prices have stayed stable / continued to rise. Our house has gained value. I guess what I'm wondering is how realistic it is to worry about the scenarios you're describing?

As an aside I have zero fracking energy for another indyref now, and I have to wonder how many of last time's doorknockers are feeling the same. The SNP need to bear in mind it was the grassroots movement that meant independence came so close last time.

Obviously I appreciate your concerns re. being tied into a GBP mortgage. But I optimistically think you'd have a LOT of lead time / warning before that became a prospect. Don't start packing yet is what I mean!

About 30 years would be great.