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Welcome to Scotsnet - discuss all aspects of life in Scotland, including relocating, schools and local areas.

How much time between May election and another indyref

55 replies

Amy909 · 24/01/2021 12:53

How much time do you think there would need to be (as a minimum) between the May elections and another independence referendum? Could it conceivably be held in 2021? Getting nervous as if this is on the cards we want to sell up and move before it happens. Not done this yet even though it is constantly being pushed as wanted to stay while kids are small to be near grandparents. I’m finding it hard to judge what the timescales could be. Also if it was announced it might be harder to sell our house if we wait too long

OP posts:
Amy909 · 25/01/2021 09:17

@ProvisionallyAnxious ha thanks you are probably right and I’m being overly anxious. Perhaps too much thinking time in the house with lockdown Blush Maybe the call for one is 2021 is unrealistic! I find it really hard to know. I just have no concept of how much time we might realistically have before we have to up sticks was wondering if I need to make plans now but would rather leave it as late as possible as have lovely family and friends close by.

OP posts:
anon444877 · 25/01/2021 10:04

It's so hard to know - best not to dwell on it, we do have too much time inside overthinking these days. Perhaps like a bad relationship, save up a running away fund so you've got peace of mind that you can go.

Keir Starmer will very likely win the next general election, but the SNP know this so they'll try and force through an illegal referendum before there's a realistic prospect of Labour at Westminster is my best guess. So the referendum push will be in the next two years so they can say you've still got n more years of murdering tories in their campaign.

Nyx · 25/01/2021 14:08

Perhaps you're right, anon444877, however Labour are just about at rock bottom in Scotland at the moment. Predicted to be wiped out even more in May, if that's possible. Without Scottish seats, can Labour win a general election? The Tories still have a large majority.

Nyx · 25/01/2021 14:08

I meant to say - don't ask me how!

anon444877 · 25/01/2021 14:53

I'm sure that'll be the SNP rhetoric we see, yes Nyx Smile

IHaveBrilloHair · 26/01/2021 10:03

I cant cope with another one, the last one was bad enough.

annabelindajane · 26/01/2021 12:04

@Selkiesarereal

What I hope is that people learn from Brexit in that what you think you are voting for and what the final deal is maybe very different and at best hugely disruptive and at worst disastrous.
Such a good point -
EvelynBeatrice · 26/01/2021 19:57

OP you’re not alone in thinking about this. I’ve lost count of the number of people talking about moving - mainly higher rate tax payers admittedly! I don’t think it would be for 3/4 years - as you say the uncertainty is very damaging regardless. I think that tax rates and council tax will have to rocket well before any referendum and that may play in to people taking a more negative view of independence as even higher tax round be required. However it’s anyone’s guess - non taxpayers may believe (and will be told) they will be better off. I genuinely don’t know how a vote would go.

Amy909 · 26/01/2021 20:28

@EvelynBeatrice I also know a few who said they would move in a Yes vote but now thinking of going earlier as cannot face another referendum. I was born here and have lived here all my life but sometimes just think it would be so nice to live somewhere else and not have it constantly hanging over me. I was relieved at the No vote in 2014 but there wasn’t one day of let up even after that and I had less to worry about then. I should probably avoid making any life changing decisions in the middle of a pandemic when mood and anxiety is all over the place! I hope you are right 3-4 years would be a lot better time wise to formulate a move.

OP posts:
anon444877 · 26/01/2021 20:49

Got to wonder how big the sector of Scottish higher rate tax payers who'd love to pay more for Indy is. I'm sure there are some of course. I can't understand why anyone would want more change and more headaches just now.

beepbeeprichie · 27/01/2021 08:38

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and I cannot criticise anyone who votes with their heart for independence/ SNP (since the two are one in May).
However, with no lender of last resort, no currency, no plans on how to pay pensions, fund the NHS etc, it is all incredibly worrying and I feel the same as the OP. The nation will be asked to make a life changing decision in the middle of the pandemic.

I doubt unionists (of all colours) would lie down and take a result and any and every stalling tactic would be used to drag it out even longer. It would be Brexit to the power 10 as we try to set up borders, separate embedded systems etc. We too are keeping our options open.

Longer term, I do not think either DH’s or my employer would stay in Scotland. The 2014 white paper doesn’t hold up to scrutiny now, the GERS figures are damning and the basic currency questions cannot be answered. We cannot just walk away from our part of the UK deficit. I wish the SNP would get the country back on its feet first- close the attainment gap, reduce drugs deaths etc and show they can deliver for Scotland.

cdtaylornats · 27/01/2021 09:19

It's been over 40 years since the vote to set up Holyrood - we should have a vote to determine if we think the experiment worked and keep it or save £100 million a year.

cdtaylornats · 27/01/2021 09:23

Keir Starmer will very likely win the next general election

Spare us your wishful thinking, he is still behind in the polls.

LetItGoGo · 27/01/2021 10:43

I think you could have a ( very ) provisional plan but then put it to the back of your mind and let the political shenanigans flow on by.

"Running away fund" idea and positive exploring of work / location possibilities might make you feel more in control.

Tomorrowisanewday · 02/02/2021 20:39

Don't want to be the harbinger of doom, but the papers at the weekend were talking about this December being what she was aiming for.

I can't go through another one. I can't move, because my parents are elderly, and my business is here, but business needs certainty. We've had a constant stream of referendums and elections, whether Westminster or Holyrood since 2014, and thats just unsettled business for more than 7 years.

I hated what it did to our country last timeSad

ByGaslight · 21/02/2021 12:53

I assume that the SNP – who seem to be treating the May elections as a ‘referendum’ on indy2 – will move sooner rather than later to consolidate this predicted win.

My family has recently made the decision to leave Scotland because of the ever-present threat / promise of independence and while I expected it to be a sad decision I didn’t expect to feel so bloody relieved and it has made me reflect on just how long we’ve been so stressed by this hanging over us.

My long story short: Scottish Mum, Northern English Dad, brought up in both Scotland and north of England, living and working in Scotland last 20 years, half of extended family in north of England and half in Scotland. The Scottish half are all moving to the north of England, we’re selling houses now, my bit of the family will be the last to go, because of contracts and work - we’ll be leaving in early 2024.

I’m not sure what the final trigger was but some of it has been Nicola Sturgeon reported on the TV every day with her captive audience during the pandemic and threatening to close the border between Scotland and England.

The core of how I feel is that this is not my home any more but I do feel that still in the north of England.

To me, the Brexit vote was an invitation for the UK to vote and so they did. I voted against Brexit because I thought it might not be good economically and I was surprised by how many people voted in favour and I accepted the vote. I don’t feel deep concern about leaving the EU apart from I want whatever happens to be good for the UK. My family have close European friends and work partners and see the leaving of the bloc hasn’t moved our islands an inch further from the continent.

I voted no in Indyref 2014 for economic reasons – I think it will badly damage Scotland’s economic structures, it’s not really comparable to Brexit - and because I didn’t want Scotland to separate. Indyref was an invitation for people to vote and so they did and I accepted the vote. The nationalists are using Brexit as a way of justifying a new referendum bid only a few years later, but I don't think they would have given up regardless of Brexit.

What has happened since those votes is what has turned me: the howling outrage from all the people who didn’t accept the votes and the machinations to overturn and delegitimise them.

I work in academia where some of the outrage has been worst: middle class, well-off university educated people who had decided that a) the EU and EU government was their real country, not the UK, because it made their trips to France and Spain effortless, it enabled them to ignore national borders because that’s useful for their particular jobs and because they believed the EU was a necessary civilising influence on the off-trend peoples of the UK who are all bigots and philistines and b) that when the Labour and Liberal parties failed, the SNP would now carry the rainbow banner of social Progress (but not the old gammon Salmond SNP, who are off-trend) and are now the only hope for civilisation - which makes the nationalism fine because it's somehow about rejoining the EU.

Most of these academics live comfortably between their nice houses and universities (where they earn a very large amount over the average wage but rarely have their work hours scrutinised) and believe passionately in a decolonised, degendered, ‘fluid’ world where social justice reigns but where they are still able to benefit from house price inflation, exclusive networks of other middle-class professionals and defined benefits pensions. Demonstrating that although they use the phrase ‘neo-liberal’ a lot, they don’t actually know what it means.

Long post, apologies.

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 21/02/2021 13:05

As much as I want a referendum ASAP in order to get out of this union ASAP, I do accept that right now there are other priorities, and this being the case, any expectation of a date before the end of 2021 is unrealistic. I thin that if Covid settles down over the course of this year, then given the inevitable squabbling over the terms of reference, framing of the question etc, then sometime toward the end of 2022 or perhaps spring of 2023 would be my guess. Again, I'd expect at least 18 months to two years of transition between a 'yes' vote and formal independence, so at best I think we'd be looking at leaving the disunited kingdom in mid-2024 at the earliest.

@beepbeeprichie

If drugs deaths are an emotive issue for you, how do you feel about the fact that the Scottish Government has repeatedly asked for reviews of reserved laws and policies on Class A drugs, and repeatedly been dismissed out of hand by Westminster?

Any SG is bound by their competence to govern, and to me, this is one of the more egregious examples of trying to address an issue with one hand tied behind their back. Is there more the SG could do within their devolved remit? Quite possibly, however, it's clear the UK policy of 'criminalise everything, persecute users, no tolerance' simply isn't serving Scotland's needs and a drastic change of approach is, if not the panacea, at least long overdue exploration. Personally, I think the local authorities should just openly tolerate safe injecting spaces as a first step, and tell the law to go swing. I don't think there would be much of an appetite within Police Scotland to do much about it.

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 21/02/2021 13:10

It's been over 40 years since the vote to set up Holyrood - we should have a vote to determine if we think the experiment worked and keep it or save £100 million a year

Yes, lets waste our time having a referendum that would see every single major party in Scotland united behind one side of the debate.

How about we just have one that posits doing away with the ridiculous three-ring circus in London instead?

TeenTraumaTrials · 21/02/2021 13:12

@cdtaylornats

It's been over 40 years since the vote to set up Holyrood - we should have a vote to determine if we think the experiment worked and keep it or save £100 million a year.
Erm no it hasn't. It was in 1997 so less than 25 years ago!
XDownwiththissortofthingX · 21/02/2021 13:15

If we had a referendum to abolish Westminster, we could just run the UK from Edinburgh, Cardiff, or Stormont instead. I shouldn't be an issue if it's almost exclusively Scots, Welsh, or Irish representatives, because as Unionists never tire of telling us, the UK is apparently a country itself, we're all pretty much the same and a partnership of equals, so why should it matter who governs and from where?

Aurea · 21/02/2021 13:59

I take opinion polls with a bit of a pinch of salt. I,for one, would not divulge which way I was voting and would I say I was unsure for fear of comeback (English person living in Scotland). I have faced hostility for being English although I have lived in Scotland for half my life.

Didn't Boris win a larger majority than everyone was expecting according to the opinion polls as his supporters kept shtum?

C0RAL · 21/02/2021 14:08

[quote Amy909]@EvelynBeatrice I also know a few who said they would move in a Yes vote but now thinking of going earlier as cannot face another referendum. I was born here and have lived here all my life but sometimes just think it would be so nice to live somewhere else and not have it constantly hanging over me. I was relieved at the No vote in 2014 but there wasn’t one day of let up even after that and I had less to worry about then. I should probably avoid making any life changing decisions in the middle of a pandemic when mood and anxiety is all over the place! I hope you are right 3-4 years would be a lot better time wise to formulate a move.[/quote]
With respect,I think you need to get medical advice about your anxiety. It’s really not healthy or normal to feel like this about politics, every single day of your life.

I understand these fears are real in your head but they have no basis in reality.

Think about year 2000 or Brexit. Did house prices collapse, the NHS fall apart , currencies fail and planes fall out the sky the day after the referendum ? No. Even years later, most people in Scotland would be hard pushed to tell your how their everyday life has changed.

I’m not saying these political decisions have NO impact, of course they do. But your whole life won’t fall apart the next day - even if the vote doesn’t go your way.

And if you are falling out with friends and family over politics - either they were not decent people in the first place or it says more about you than them.

Please think about getting some professional help.

Amy909 · 21/02/2021 14:42

Excuse me @C0RAL at what point have I said I am falling out with family and friends over politics?! What a huge assumption on your part. I have friends who support a Yes vote and as I have already said in previous posts they are of course more entitled to their point of view!

I have said I am worried, and obviously at the point I wrote the post I was thinking about it probably because it was prominent in the news. The no day of let up was a reference to the SNP. Not that I am thinking of it all day every day. Not sure what 2000 has to do with anything.

Thank you for your ‘kind’ advice that I get medical advice but my post was actually asking about thoughts on timing not for attacks on my person.

OP posts:
Elvesaremagic · 21/02/2021 16:17

With respect Coral I think you need to take a look at the figures. I think some niche areas of housing might not see as big a drop as others - an independent nation needs certain institutions which need staffing - embassies etc - but yes I see a lot of businesses flocking over the border taking higher rate taxpayers with them,. The Scottish government is going to be so skint it will have to start looking at making cuts where it would never have dreamed of before too. Make a few NHS consultants redundant and you’d save a considerable amount of money...

OldRailer · 21/02/2021 16:26

@Amy909, glad you are taking no notice of the blatant gaslighting.
Happens far too often.

Best wishes to you and your family.

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