Educated guesses when schools will reopen

[frasersmummy]

Just that really

What do you think might be a realistic re-opening date.
Am I being optimistic thinking after the February break
I know no one has a crystal ball just looking for people's thoughts

golden this is I would love to see!

What I would really like to hear in this NS statement on schools next week is what they’re basing the decision on. Yes yes rates are still very high, we all know that, but do you want them to be below a particular number before schools go back? Or declining for a set number of days? Or hospital admissions below some other number? Or this many groups of people vaccinated? At least give us SOME indication of what you want to see other than “when we feel it’s safe”.

I totally agree @GoldenOmber

Thirded - if they're not working to particular criteria then why the hell not.

If they are - why won't they share?

Finger in the wind or when they 'feel' it's ok is a completely unacceptable position to take.

I hate all this "We're going to tell you something about schools but you'll have to wait till next week " kind of nonsense.
It's as if we are naughty children and we'll be told when we've been good and done all our online learning

The problem is, they don't really know what the exit criteria to this is. One day at a time for now probably best!

There should be a plan. If I were in charge I’d plan for lifting of restrictions when the oldest are vaccinated

@GoldenOmber

What I would really like to hear in this NS statement on schools next week is what they’re basing the decision on. Yes yes rates are still very high, we all know that, but do you want them to be below a particular number before schools go back? Or declining for a set number of days? Or hospital admissions below some other number? Or this many groups of people vaccinated? At least give us SOME indication of what you want to see other than “when we feel it’s safe”.

Agree 100%.

I've said before on here that I fully expect schools still to be off when infections across all of Scotland are under 200 a day.

@GoldenOmber

What I would really like to hear in this NS statement on schools next week is what they’re basing the decision on. Yes yes rates are still very high, we all know that, but do you want them to be below a particular number before schools go back? Or declining for a set number of days? Or hospital admissions below some other number? Or this many groups of people vaccinated? At least give us SOME indication of what you want to see other than “when we feel it’s safe”.

Well I didnt hear anyone backing up teachers and unions when they were saying the same thing -When will they move on to blended learning or their contigency plan? How many cases will there need to be for safety of staff and children were taken into account? We now have to consider how this can be done safely. It is far more complicated than just shoving all the children back to school. How can they? There is a new varient that is far more infectious. We have no idea if children catch it more readily but they seem to think they do. They can't afford to let it run a mock in society because it brings the possibility of mutations. The only way I can see they can resume schools are when the cases are low, children can go back to school and socially distance. Other buildings may need to be used to allow that to happen or children need to come in on a rotation. If this is not done, cases will sore again and that brings the possibility that it could produce a more sever type of coronavirus. For those reasons schools cannot go back the way they were and the immunisation programme needs to fire through people so we have any chance of normality.

We now have to consider how this can be done safely. It is far more complicated than just shoving all the children back to school.

I'm not suggesting they shove anybody anywhere, I'm suggesting they tell us what criteria it is they're using to decide when and how children return.

They can go back when the elderly are vaccinated, if not before

@Fortherosesjoni70 are you a teacher?

[quote WouldBeGood]@Fortherosesjoni70 are you a teacher?[/quote]
I would hope not, the spelling is awful!

Do you know the cases went up after schools shut? Again they shut schools not to protect individuals but because if there is wider community transmission then they see hospitalisations going up. But what they don’t know is how much schools actually push this community transmission up and it’s thought to be not very much at all. So it’s the wider harm on society, not because it’s not safe for teachers. But if all the CV teachers are vaccinated then this also shouldn’t be an issue. Many studies have been done having schools open vs shut in the past year and they’ve found that having schools open or shut did not affect hospitalisations. So then we have the new strain. I get that they want to see what effect this has on children and transmissibility. But once they determine this and numbers come down and hospitalisations are down they can’t keep children out of school forever. It’s too damaging. So we need to know what the criteria is and I don’t want my children’s education/ social skills thrown away for some plan to achieve zero covid that won’t ever come to fruition. So like @goldenomber says, is it when they’ve vaccinated a certain percentage of society? Tell us the logic, if they’ve no plan then they’ve openly admitted this is terrible for children, that they are better off with fully open schools, that lockdown is MUCH MORE damaging to children than COVID is. I’ve two toddlers and one in primary school and home schooling is not fair on any of them, they all seem to be suffering from lack of attention. We were fine over the holidays just playing, but so hard trying to keep the little ones entertained when we have school work to do!

I really don't follow this transmission only happens in schools when there are community cases? Surely this is true of every workplace. And if there is little evidence of transmission in schools how come kids had the highest infection rate of any age group which magically went down every school holiday?

After Easter.

The thing is, now that they’ve taken the decision to close schools, they are not going to take the decision to open them up lightly. This measure has to be seen through ‘until the end’ and until it’s truly worked so that it will be the last time it ever happens. I’d rather this than open up too early and have to close again a few months later.

I'd like som indication of a plan too, for example (actual plan may vary) When cases are below x number we will begin to bring schools back, starting with nursery, then p1-p3 on a blended basis, working towards full return within x weeks if case numbers stay below x.

This could be on a local basis too, it doesn't need to be Scotland wide. Why do dc in areas with tiny case numbers need to be off school.

I don't see why they can't give schools, teachers, parents, employers some idea of what we're aiming for. It would allow everyone to plan better, instead of week to week at the moment.

walksen infection rates went UP in Wales and London and SE when the schools closed.

My hunch is that the "testing" data for children skews downwards when schools close because when they are open parents tend to have DC tested for anything cold like "just in case" and to rule Covid out so they can go to school with a clear conscience. If schools are shut there is no reason to test children stuck at home with nowhere to go.

"walksen infection rates went UP in Wales and London and SE when the schools closed"

I'm basing it on ons surveys not Oct data etc. It was quite clear what happening in schools. Did the new strain change things. I think yesterday's was delayed.

If schools are shut there is no reason to test children stuck at home with nowhere to go.

Really? I would still test anyone in my household with symptoms, otherwise how could I still go shopping, go to work, meet a friend in the park or my dc meet their friends. Same conscience at play there as sending them to school. I think it will run as it is until feb break then maybe some sort of blended learning but I can't see all dc in school as normal before Easter.

Also bare in mind that children under 12 in Scotland do not need to distance and do not count towards number for households meeting outdoors so many are still mixing quite freely. I'd very much hope they are still being tested.

When will they move on to blended learning or their contigency plan?

I'll answer that, the answer is never.
It was a stupid idea that would never work. They dumped the idea on schools before thinking it through.

School Buildings, if you fill the school with socially distanced kids what do you do with the Keyworker/vulnerable kids who need to be in school 5 days?
The plan was to deep clean the schools between bubbles of kids again what do you do with KW / vulnerable kids?

I did consider they could use sports centres but they'd need to add heaters for kids sitting rather than a system designed for people running around. They'd need to sort canteen facilities. And not all sports centres have a secure outdoor space for kids to play.

Part time school and KW bubbles also means you are exposing kids to more than one bubble increasing the risk for the virus to move between bubbles.

Teachers; they'd still be exposed to 30 kids at a week, however many in secondary schools. So you aren't really reducing their risk. How can a teacher teach 15 kids in front of them and 15 kids at home at the same time?
Who looks after the KW / vulnerable kids?
I did consider they could be looked after by sports coaches who have clearance to work with children but there's a huge difference between a sports coach and teachers who have knowledge in dealing with vulnerable kids (kids with ASD, in care homes, kids in abusive houses, etc) and the many issues that these kids face.

So bottom line blended learning won't work.

Interesting point about the KW kids lockdownbear. I never thought of this. If blended learning is not doable then they really need to show us their reasoning for shutting, the plan for reopening, prove to us it is a priority and that it’s being worked on, with teachers. I’ve already had the rage at John Swinney before (blended learning for a year?!) but I’m getting angrier and angrier because it’s all very well shutting schools but how do they plan on getting them open again?! He just doesn’t seem bothered, it’s not good enough. Shut the schools, box ticked, move on and talk about something else. He’s hopeless. These issues better be addressed next week in their statement. Non-answers just won’t cut it.

@iquitelikenormalityafterall currently our key worker dc join their year group on the day they are in (vulnerable group quite large and in 2 days presently so similar to a blended learning model) on other days they are kept in a key worker bubble (still age related not a huge amount of bubble mixing at all) in a spare classroom which is possible when not all dc are in. If then blended model is expanded there would still be space in the lunch hall, gym hall, library, after school club room, community/family room etc. It's not impossible as we had it all in place and ready to go before it was scrapped.

midnight that only addresses the school environment. With "Blended" the "other bubbles" include the ones which need to be in place on the days the DC are not in school. (I have a hospital KW friend who currently gets KW places for her 2 primary DC when she works days but not when she works nights - even in the current environment as a KW she needs an alternative non-school childcare solution).

A school with Blended implies at least 50% capacity plus KW/vulnerable provision. That wouldn't look much different from fully open in a school like my DD's with high levels of KW parents and vulnerable DC.