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Original poster

Another Referendum?

86 replies

Elllimam · 30/04/2015 10:46

I'm not debating the positives or negatives of independence Shock but I was wondering if the SNP does have a landslide victory in Scotland do you think they will be able to push through another referendum? I had assumed it would be a given but saw Ed Miliband yesterday had vetoed the idea of another vote. m.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/ed-miliband-rules-out-new-scottish-independence-vote-1-3757507 I would have thought if the SNP were in control they could have held a referendum if they wanted to? Excuse my extreme political ignorance.

OP posts:
tabulahrasa · 02/05/2015 15:18

"My worry is that there will be a Conservative led government."

It's not likely...the way the polls are showing seats going, no-one is going to get a majority and there won't be enough of any other parties that would support a Conservative government to form a government.

So it'll be a minority government and again if it was going to be Conservative they don't have enough support to do that either.

howabout · 03/05/2015 07:29

I would caution against relying on the polls even at this late stage.
In 2010 in the last week before the election Conservatives were polling round about 33%, Labour 29% and Lib Dems 28%. The final outcome was Conservative 36%, Labour 29% and Lib Dem 23%. The swing away from the Lib Dems had a significant impact. If the UKIP vote moves similarly from its current 13% back to the Conservatives then I think there will be a Conservative government.

The other unknown is the impact of SNP in Scottish seats. If the current polling levels are accurate then all Scottish seats will be SNP. If they are wrong by just a few percentage points then there may 25 or less SNP MPs. This is the nature of the 2 way battle in Glasgow and the 3 way battle in Edinburgh which could in fact result in more Conservative seats. In the North the Lib / Dems may well hold on to more seats than predicted and again I also think Conservative / Lib Dem coalition is possible and on the evidence of the last 5 years worse than Conservative on its own.
Also there are several other MN threads running with significant numbers of MNetters predicting Conservative or Conservative / Lib Dem.
On Thursday when I watched Question Time I was struck by how different the debate in England is from the Scottish view, although I have my doubts about the way the English audience was selected.

PrimalLass · 03/05/2015 08:22

I've said this before and been shouted down but I don't think the SNP will want another referendum too soon. 10 more years of positive 'rule' would give more of a mandate.

But ruling it out forever is disrespectful to new voters coming through. As if their opinions will never count. If there is a sea-change away from 'no' in 10 years then that's what the electorate want.

Jackieharris · 03/05/2015 09:35

Yes especially since the younger voters are more SNP/yes and older voters more unionist parties/no.

In 10 years that could make a big difference.

unlucky83 · 03/05/2015 10:11

Primal I don't think they can do 10 yr of 'positive rule'!
I don't think they are doing any more than 'superficial headline grabbing' good - not as much as they could do and they won't be able to keep it up and they (higher hierarchy of the party) know that...
or to put it another way I think in 10yrs the scales will have fallen from people's eyes and they will see them for what they really are...

PrimalLass · 03/05/2015 10:13

Well then there won't be another referendum ...

unlucky83 · 03/05/2015 10:34

I think they will go for one - in the shorter term - whilst they are still popular...

SDTGisAnEvilWolefGenius · 03/05/2015 11:10

As it happens, dh's employment terms changed recently, so his job and pension are now based in England - they were previously based in Scotland - and since his mum's sad death last year, we now have enough money to fund a move if we want to go.

I don't want to move - neither of us do - we love where we live and we love the many friends we have made here, but the referendum campaign last year was horribly stressful and created such huge, painful divisions, that we don't want to live through that again.

I honestly think Scotland needs a number of years of stability, economic growth, and healing, before there is the possibility of another referendum. And I think the current uncertainty is really damaging.

I would respect Nicola Sturgeon far more if she would give a definitive answer - whether that answer was 'No, there will be no referendum within the life of the next Holyrood parliament, if the SNP have a majority' or 'Yes, if we get a majority at Holyrood, we will be holding another referendum' - either way, we would know where we stand.

Saying 'If something changes, we will see that as a mandate for a referendum' without giving any clue what 'something' actually means, is frankly weasel-political-wording, imo - because then anything can be defined as the 'something' that mandates a new referendum.

StaceyAndTracey · 03/05/2015 14:14

I think it woudl be disrespectful to the electorate, to just say " well we don't care what you want or don't want , our policy is x and we wont listen to you " .

I am shocked and quite saddened to hear that so many of you have fallen out with your friends and family over politics . Don't you think it woudl be better to build bridges with them, rather than just up sticks and leave? Surely you could just agree to disagree ? We have lots of freinds on both sides and no one has ended friendships over it .

There will be other elections and political issues and You might end up falling out with the people who live in your new town over something else !

howabout · 03/05/2015 14:21

All I would say to you Staceyandtracey is that history shows time and again that nationalism can be a very dangerous beast. Jim Murphy is passionately making his case and getting plenty of personal abuse for it. I know plenty of very vocal yes supporters and plenty not so vocal no supporters.

StaceyAndTracey · 03/05/2015 15:01

do you mean scottish nationalism , english nationalism or UK nationalism ? Are they all dangerous - the yes and the no voters ? Or just the side you don't agree with ?

And I'm not sure how that relates to my point about not falling out with your freinds and family about politics ? Surely that's a bad thing, which ever side you are on ?

< confused >

APlaceOnTheCouch · 03/05/2015 15:52

I know lots of vocal no supporters and not so vocal yes supporters so do we balance each other out howabout? Hmm

My family and friends are very passionate about politics and some voted 'no' and others voted 'yes'. We didn't fall out about it. We didn't feel frightened to voice out opinions. I really don't recognise the division and fear in relation to people exercising their democratic right to vote. It's the cornerstone of democracy.

And as a PP said, it's rather naive to expect anyone to rule out the possibility of a referendum ever. The electorate change both in terms of demographics and political persuasion.

Does everyone know about the webchat with Nicola Sturgeon? I'd completely missed it as it isn't on the homepage.

howabout · 03/05/2015 16:51

I mean all of it! And since you ask at heart I am an internationalist, so I have no-one to vote for unless I pick the least bad option.
Definitely agree not worth falling out over, but this requires everyone to keep to polite discourse.

APlaceOnTheCouch · 03/05/2015 18:05

Hirples thanks yet again for the link Grin

sooperdooper · 03/05/2015 18:16

I don't see why there would be another referendum so soon, I find it really annoying that the 'yes' voters seem to consider themselves and their opinions more important than the no voters. People had the opportunity to have their say and the majority spoke, just because it wasn't the answer the 'yes' wanted they can't just push for another vote so soon until they get their answer, or what was the point of the original vote Confused

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 03/05/2015 18:21

I find it really annoying that the 'yes' voters seem to consider themselves and their opinions more important than the no voters

They dont... Why do people always forget that the only way a referendum can happen is if there is a majority of pro Indy msps. That can only happen if a majority of people vote for them. If the majority of people want to stay in the union, then there will be a majority of unionist MSPs and no referendum. So there is nothing to worry about.

lunar1 · 03/05/2015 18:26

There is only a point to another referendum if the people of Scotland can get some proper answers over how things will look for an independent Scotland.

I couldn't vote for something that would bring about such uncertainty. There didn't seem to be enough concrete answers to any of the big questions. I think the outcome would have been very different if there weren't so many huge grey areas regarding Scotland's future as an independent country.

BakewellSlice · 03/05/2015 20:45

I am not a UK nationalist but am pro keeping the union - does that make sense to others? I am pro cooperation between people. Being British isn't a major part of my identity.

I haven't fallen out with anyone seriously but I would not stay in an independent Scotland. My Mum is a pensioner in England, as Alec Salmond has made clear he believes tax raised in Scotland should rightly kept in Scotland; so I'll be morally forced to leave to support my old mum!

howabout · 03/05/2015 20:52

Makes sense to me but then I have a similar take to you. Also I have an English DH and I worked in London for a number of years. This gave me huge career advantages when I came back home and I would not want any further barriers to my DCs doing this going up.

I thought it was appalling in the referendum that Scottish expats were excluded from the vote, including those serving in the army overseas! I think the NO may well have been even louder if these people had been asked.

BakewellSlice · 03/05/2015 21:00

StaceyandTracey, I can't imagine a more emotive or divisive political campaign than changing the country you live in. I was not pleased at the prospect of an international border going up between me and a lot of my family.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 03/05/2015 21:01

Why would it be any different to eg the border between Ireland/NI?

StaceyAndTracey · 03/05/2015 21:19

Well we have family all over the world and the border doesn't bother any of us . Its just the travel time . If my family lived in Carlisle, they woudl still be the same distance away .

My sister married a Greek man and we didnt find it emotive or divisive . But I understand that other people might feel differently

BakewellSlice · 04/05/2015 10:32

I guess to me (I speak for no-one else) I am a descendent of people from both sides of a much fought over mediaeval border; likely both sides fought at Flodden. For me it is a positive thing that the UK eventually became one Nation.

What a sad thing (to me) to divide us all up again.

Alex Salmond, whom I've heard speak on this, does see it as a matter of Scottish tax for those in Scotland. It's not part of my mindset but if that's what the majority vote for I'm fine with that but it doesn't make me personally want to live in an independent Scotland- like I say I'll look after my Mum then.

His supporters telling my son hios Dad's an English cunt doesn't help me get into an independence vibe either! (But I know there are rude folk on all sides, of course...)

trixymalixy · 04/05/2015 12:19

I couldn't bear for there to be another referendum anytime soon. The stress of it all made me ill, I was off work for a month. Members of my family still aren't speaking. It was horribly divisive.

If we do end up with another one, I will be livid if they don't put a hurdle on the % of votes needed. What sort of place would scotland have been to live in if yes had won by only a couple of votes and nearly 50% of the population were not supportive of breaking up Union? I think there would have been civil unrest.