Would you stretch the budget for a house with uncertain school catchment?

[BrummyMummy26]

We viewed a house today and we both loved it. It ticks all the boxes and could be our forever home.

Only downside is that it’s right at the top of our budget and may be slightly outside school catchment for secondary school. The cut off distance changes every year based on number of applicants but it’s highly sought after. I’ve checked recent cut off distances and our eldest would have just got in in 2021 and 2022 but the last 3 years the house would have been a few hundred metres too far. DS will start primary school in Sept 2027 (house is within catchment of outstanding primary school), so secondary school is still about 8 years away!
Also worth noting DS was born in 2023 when birth rates were lowest they’ve been in a long time!

But is it worth stretching ourselves if we may potentially have to move again in 7ish years? I just don’t know what to do 😭 any advice/experience welcome!

For a child not even at school yet... dont make decisions based on Secondary catchments.

Schools change. Admission rules change. Your own circumstances change. Different schools suit different children.

It is 8 years away.

So no I would not worry - schools can change, catchment areas can change, birth rates as you say are influencing spaces. And most importantly you don’t yet know which school will suit your DC - will they be academic, sporty, confident, need a strict school or need a relaxed school?

Our planned school was religious, and my anti-religion DC would have spontaneously combusted (or maybe the school would have spontaneously combusted) if he’d set foot in it aged 11. We moved area when he was in year 5 anyway.

You just can’t tell yet. And you don’t know what life will throw at you in the meantime.

So on that basis don’t worry!

Thank you both for your responses, very good points! I’m definitely overthinking this!

So I'd go against the PP - if alternative schools that that house is catchment for aren't great, or have aspects that can't be changed e.g. little outside space then I wouldn't stretch myself for a house that is out of catchment. It might be that the school takes a dive, but you'll probably have to look at moving again anyway at that point, but if they maintain their current standard I'd want to be sure I was catchment.

I wouldn't want to pay 2 lots of stamp duty in 7 years, i also am an over worrier and wouldn't want it hanging over my head.

Unles

It also depends what the alternative would be. Round my way there's one amazing comp, private schools or a rough comprehensive. We bought in catchment but I have a lot of friends who bought a cheaper house and are going private instead.

@MrsKateColumbo yes paying stamp duty twice is a worry of mine too!

There are other options for secondary schools, one good comp, one not so good comp and a grammar school. I think just in my mind I had that he’d go to the outstanding comp! But very true what others have said about how schools change.

Are you already living in the catchment area for the primary? Applications open for 2027 this September and close early January. We put in an offer in July last year and moved just before Christmas with a simple 3 person chain, so you need to make this decision quickly/are cutting it quite fine in my opinion.

As a secondary teacher, schools can change dramatically in that time so I would base my decision on the primary.

I definitely wouldn’t stretch myself financially at the moment.

And that 8 years will come round quickly. Are you prepared to move again if the catchment isn’t certain? More houses are likely to be built.

It will go fast! Mine is going to secondary this September.
we can’t afford to move anymore, stamp duty etc. don’t overstretch yourself for a house that’s not even in the cacthment area

Birth rates are going down and even if you didn't get in you could stay on waiting list and wait it out. I wouldn't put me off it as birth rates are declining

Schools change (& sometimes very quickly). I would not be worried about a school choice 8 years off.

Do houses firmly in the catchment area come up? Would these be even further out of budget and have more competition because of the school?

Stamp duty is a kicker but could you move in 7-8 years if
a) it was still your first choice
b) you needed to for the catchment
c) houses were available within the catchment
d) you liked those houses

thats with things staying relatively the same as they are now. However in that time, you may find things change as others have said.

a) the catchment area
b) the school
c) your child’s needs and preferences
d) ditto other children you might have
e) your financial or job situation
f) stamp duty/ home buying changes

Can you get into the primary you want where you are now? That could buy you a bit more time for something else to come up. Have you been looking long? Near me the options are a bit scarce at the moment. In my local Facebook group there’s a woman who’s posted a few times asking if anyone is selling in the catchment. I don’t think there is one right answer it’s very individual to your circumstances and location.

No I wouldn’t, would prioritise proximity to the popular secondary school. Time goes fast and moving house is costly.

Thank you for all your responses! Our offer was rejected and as it was right at the top of our budget already, we couldn’t go any higher. All that worrying for nothing 😂

I wouldn’t say you were over thinking it. We are in an uncertain school catchment (it wasn’t uncertain when we bought it 12 years ago pre-children) and it’s something I think about most days. If a good school is important to you, buy a house that will get your children into one.

As regards stamp duty (albeit recognising that you aren't going to buy this property), there is potential that in 8 years time there could have been a change from paying a large lump sum as part of a house purchase, to an annual tax that home owners pay based on a valuation of the land their house is on, not the house price.

so it wouldn't be a question of 'paying SD twice' if that change did happen. You'd be paying it anyway, regardless. If the change even happens, that is ....

Imo secondary schools that have been great for years don’t change that much so I would & did prioritise catchment.

Yes, birth rates are falling but this doesn’t automatically mean it’s easier to get the places at the best schools as PANs shrink and the most desired schools become even more desirable particularly as more are priced out of private.