How much have house prices gone up since 2021?

[sumesest]

I’ve found a beautiful house online; they are marketing it for OIEO £800k. From what I can see, all they’ve done since moving in during 2021 is redecorated (paint), changed flooring to herringbone, swapped the kitchen worktops from wood to Quartz, and added an outdoor kitchen (which isn’t included in the sale anyway). They paid £630k for the house in 2021.

As I said, it’s a really gorgeous home, but am I wrong for thinking they are batshit wanting a 33% increase over what they paid?! Or am I out of touch? I was under the impression that prices had gone up max 15% in the last 5 years, at a push.

I think we have reached a tipping point for the UK, AB saying he is basically anti - Neoliberalism? Iran/ME situation definitely escalating, and Japan under pressure to raise rates, with all the implications that has for the "carry trade" etc.?

I’m hoping Burnham won’t be around for long personally
Agree
its all going further downhill

ive got one eye on the football and that’s going to s… too 😳

You state that you are alarmed about people's lack of grasp of basic economics and then post this, which fails to grasp key issues.

If you had checked Rightmove in the last 3-4 years you would have seen that many sellers are being very over optimistic about their asking prices (see the number of reductions) and that selling prices in real terms have already fallen in some places. I have no idea whether or not this particular house will sell at asking price but the chances are that it will have fallen in value nominally since 2023.

Demand is the number of people who want AND can afford a property, not just the number of people in the country. This takes us to @XVGN's point that it is the supply of credit which is the chief factor in terms of the rises in property prices. This relies on what banks will lend, which is affected by people's salaries and the lending rules plus rates to some extent too. During the pandemic period of 2020-22, we were awash with credit due to a huge amount of QE and ZIRP plus most people reduced their spending, some received £££ from the government and then Sunak slapped a SDLT holiday on top of this. Inevitably, property prices zoomed up. Some of these things have been unwound, the economy has been stagnant, recessionary for many, with the jobs market deteriorating for some time and rates much higher. We have various potential 'incidents' in the pipeline too, the escalating war in the ME being one of them.

Immigration reducing by less than 6% is hardly “collapsing”, (2024 - 948,000, 2025 -
898,000)

I haven't followed what AB is saying much but it is positive that he can see the dangers of Neoliberalism. Unfortunately, I think it is too late to turn things around at this point. As you say, there are various international concerns. The shadow banking industry and the massive level of unregulated debt is one too.

What’s the prediction then? Crises and instability means credit less affordable (house prices down) over a long period; or they crash down?
What correction to follow?

They are deluded

House prices peaked in 2021 (stamp duty holiday)

No one has a crystal ball, sadly!
Whenever this is discussed on here, there are always posters who assume a recovery and rising prices after a short blip because that is what has happened in recent decades. This might not be the case.

I think it's likely that we see the biggest falls in the next 2-3 years (there have already been some big falls in some areas but certainly not everywhere). What percentages we are talking about and where/for what types of houses, I don't know. I think this will be in combination with other, major economic problems, job losses and a big stock market falls so it won't be enjoyable for anyone. I'm sure that all the central banks will continue with their liquidity drives and restart QE on a massive scale when this happens. There may well be temporary recoveries in nominal terms over the next 2-3 decades (stimulated by the money printing/government policy choices) but I doubt there will be significant real house price growth. Of course, I could be totally wrong!

Who is going to replace him, or do you think early GE?

Yes, I am more positive on him than a few weeks ago, but it is just talk at the moment, priority number one is cutting welfare, but they are not going to do that are they?

No idea

No
From what he’s spoken of in the past ( and that’s all we have so far ) he’s going to make life far more expensive for the few

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/21/net-migration-uk-falls-labour-vow-cut-numbers

I think you might be confusing immigration with NET migration....

Not really, it is all part of the same story, student visas have collapsed as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/feb/26/drop-in-overseas-workers-uk-hospitals-and-care-homes

We really need to sort out more training schemes and education in these areas

There are training schemes for care, but uptake is low because pay and working conditions are so poor. People generally don’t want to do 12 hour shifts, especially not for NMW.

Especially when Brits can get council housing and all sorts of benefits for doing nothing.

Practically nobody is getting a council house these days!

NMW is about 15 quid an hour? Not bad for sitting talking to someone or going for a coffee, I suppose that is a "support worker" rather than a "care worker" though, have you seen what agency nurses get paid, no wonder the NHS is a mess and people were jumping on the first plane over to get NHS jobs?

£12.71 an hour, not £15. It’s still nigh on impossible to train predominantly women of child-bearing age, if they’re forced to work 12 hour shifts as are the norm in care homes. They’d need childcare for 14 hours a day.

Social care is a much wider field than just care homes though, care homes maybe need to get the wages up higher I agree, but young single/childless people pretending or maybe believing that they have "anxiety" and can"t work should be told to get a few shifts in or lose benefits, maybe they could train up as an agency nurse and make some decent dosh?

https://nursingguild.com/benefits/pay-rates/

Immigration isn't "collapsing", it fell by less than 6% (2024 - 948,000, 2025 -
898,000)

Just helpful to get the facts right when discussing such things....

It’s not particularly BTL where we are, although they’re definitely part of the market like anywhere. Investors can buy houses a few miles away for far less, sometimes half the price, so that’s where they get the best return.

It’s mainly driven by people priced out of the “better” areas we border and, because we have good transport links to London as well as the city centre, people priced out of London. I moved up here 10 years ago because I’d been priced out of the south coast!

I was about to put an offer in for a house but ditched it once I saw the markup