What if there just isn't another property boom coming? Everything frozen where I am

[livelaughlambada]

I know it's not possible, but I sort of wish all house sellers would collectively agree to knock 10% (or whatever it would take) off their asking price. It feels like loads of people know their houses aren't worth what they're asking, but won't drop because the house they want won't drop either. Feels like the whole market where we are (south west) has frozen solid. Also round us, there are SO many older people trying to downsize who've been told that their houses are worth X when there just aren't that many people with X to spend! And lots of these houses have been on for a year, and in some cases you can see the deteriorations, but they just won't accept the prices have dropped. I do think it's really interesting in that the 65+ generation have seen so many booms and busts that I don't think they can process that there may not be another boom coming -- as in I just don't think there are enough 30 and 40 something with X to spend. It all just feels a bit weird right now.

I don't think this is going to happen though - a lot of people are saying 'Ah but the boomers will die and then all their wealth goes to the next generation, problem solved' (or created, if you're talking about rising house prices).

People seem to be forgetting that that money's generally not a 1:1 transfer. In most cases it's going to be split to at least two people, more if grandkids included.

My parents will leave most of their estate to our kids and my niece and nephews (as we inherited most of our grandfather's estate so don't need theirs as much), meaning it will be split 5 ways, and that capital will go much less far for our kids than that sort of money used to.

And also 'kids' who inherit, even from parents, may not be young if, please God, their parents have a good long life - to say nothing of those who have a 'bad long life' and whose estate is subsumed in years of care costs,

Exactly.
With care costs, likely falling house prices, taxes and division of inheritance several ways, inheritances large enough to be able to snap up large, expensive properties are going to only be for the exceptionally fortunate and probably those inheriting at a much younger age than average too.

And let's not forget that the 'for profit care industry' came into being in anticipation of the large amounts of equity available to be siphoned out of the houses of property owning elderly people.

True but had you bought at the wrong time you could have seen prices dropping and gone into negative equity and been stuck.
Buyers now are increasingly aware of this and are only going to buy with a reduction or keen price to start off with.

That is actually what would help the market a bit.
It would have to be done nationwide so it all works.
Its wasting everyone’s time with so many houses on the market where the seller won’t drop.

My in-laws are looking to relocate to where we live and are really struggling to find somewhere to move too. Many of the houses they are looking at have come to the market as part of probate or for sale as the owner has had to go into residential care. They are all in a state of disrepair needing with rotten wooden single paned windows, 1980-90s bathrooms and kitchens, over grown gardens and with 15 years worth of neglected maintenance. They are priced about £10-20k under the price of a done up house but are in need of £100-200k spending on them depending on how much you do yourself.

The families are in no rush to sell so aren't interested in dropping the price and are willing to wait until there is someone willing to pay the price. After seeing 6-7 houses like this in the last few months they are now looking at their priority list to work out what can shift so that they can move away from houses for sale as part of probate or care home fees.

Sorry if I'm being stupid, but if those houses are only £10-£20k less than a fully done up house, have they not tried to look at the fully done up houses and offer £10k under asking ?

I think there is an aspect of this. When we were selling our last house we had an agent round to value our house. In the reasons we should list with him he included that he will never list a house above it's value as all that happens in those situations was the bank disagrees with the value and you ended having a revised offer. He then went on to show us 3 houses he had recently sold similar to ours in the town 2 of which sold for lower than the initial asking price after mortgage companies disagreed with the value of the property

I'm not sure that it's the fault of the older generation that nothing's selling at the moment - a lot of this thread seems an excuse to be take yet another pop at them.

I tried to sell my house last year, at a very reasonable price (I'm not a boomer) but no one was buying it because everyone was frozen with panic about interest rates. In any case there wasn't anywhere for me to move to so I took it off the market. In the family house market, no one was selling in my area. Young or old.

I don't think it's because everyone is waiting for a boom, or thinks their house is worth more than it is. I'm pretty sure its more complex than that, and it isn't just one part of the market or sector that is stuffing it up for everyone. I'm sure boomers would sell if there was somewhere for them to move to that they could afford or which made it worth their while to sell for. Just like I would have done.

There aren't any for sale currently. It's a small but desirable town in a rural area with an older population which is meaning that houses don't come up on the market very frequently. They have viewed 4 houses on the same road and in the last 3 years only 1 house not needing renovation has come on the market unfortunately that was just as we moved to the town and it was the house that made them feel like maybe it would be somewhere they would like to live too.

A house is worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

If it's that small a sample of properties, could it not be the case of the house without the need for renovation maybe was a bit undervalued potentially?

There's always been a "premium" for houses in need of renovation - at least as long as I can remember. The days when you can buy a property that needs £100k worth of work and make that back straight away are long over.

I think it's very difficult to predict how different people will act when they inherit. MIL died recently in her late 80s with a large estate and I've been quite surprised how each of her children (all in their 50s) have reacted. All are currently home owners. One want to buy out the others, do up the house and live there with their spouse. Another wants to sell the house and invest the money. The third wants to give the money away.

As far as the children of the large house owners being able to afford large houses in their turn, they don't need to inherit enough to buy a large house. Say you have an old couple who own a largish house. Average house prices are £300K so lets we assume a large house is £600K. We all think that house is overpriced but there will be a price at which it will sell so lets say that's £400K (so a 33% reduction - I think this is probably larger than what will actually happen). Average family size for late silent generation and early boomer was the famous 2.4 children per woman so lets assume this richer than average family had 4 children and they each get £100K. Depending where you live in the country that could be a deposit between 20 % and 60 % of the average property price. Or a very nice boost that enables some of Gen X to get a bigger house with a similar sized mortgage to the one they have.

Alternatively, if they decide to pass on the money to their GenZ children (GenX had 1.9 children per woman) the worst case scenario is a 10 % - 30 % deposit for an average sized house to a FTB in their 20s. And that is what will drive people with mid-size houses to buy the larger houses.

Finally, this discussion is very focused on England and particularly the massively overheated London. House prices are up in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

I’ve actually found older people remember the old market and are more ready to talk.
All we’ve had from the agents about younger people is abit me me me…
They’ve not found anywhere yet. They won’t move into rented. They want their asking price or else they can’t afford an onward (far more expensive) purchase.
Sorry I can’t fund your future lifestyle 🙄
We’re cash buyers, no chain. Nope, doesn’t mean a thing to them.
A bit galling when a year on, the houses that accepted higher offers disappeared totally and never sold.
Agree the agents could really turn things round, but they won’t.

In the case of my kids/neice/nephews, the value of my parents' house, which is quite a lot, would add up to a decent deposit each but in London (yes, London centric I know, but that's where we live) they would still have to be earning quite a lot to buy more than a one bed flat with it. Assuming neither parent needs long term care. My mum sadly not likely to as probably won't live to long term frailty due to illness, but also my dad, given his own father was quite long lived, could live another two decades, so kids could be in mid 30s-early 40s before they inherit. We won't be able to be 'bank of mum and dad'.

In laws have a very valuable home, but again FIL likely to live a long time and not sure if they'll leave to DH and siblings or to grandkids. But 'waiting until grandparents die' is not really a homeowning strategy on so many levels

The last boom was very recent though and people have not yet accepted it's over

The home working boom around covid meant that in rural areas like where I am now there was a HUGE micro boom from around 2021-2023

My area is usually a slowish market due to it being just outside of a reasonable commute belt, but not far enough in the middle of nowhere for the holiday home market

Yet the home working boom saw bidding wars and huge price jumps

But now we are in a situation where 2023 feels really recent, so you have people saying "but next door sold for X and they're smaller"

We moved last year and had neighbours annoyed at us for undervaluing the area, just for listing closer to a 2019 than a 2023 micro boom price.

It makes it very hard I think to get an accurate valuation, because when you look at what other properties in the area sold for, there's this huge bulge from the work from home boom, and it hasn't properly levelled out with any sort of consistency

But 'waiting until grandparents die' is not really a homeowning strategy on so many levels

Agree, you are far better getting on the ladder in your 29s with little as opposed to later

Yet the home working boom saw bidding wars and huge price jumps

It wasn’t just that, lockdown meant people didn’t spend so saved up a considerable amount.

Yes but also lockdown also over inflated people's ideas about how much of a DIY / maintenance project they could take on too.

A big garden sounded great in lockdown but back on reality it's another chore, and people want a more manageable chunk I think when it comes to DIYs and gardens

Even in the 90s the average age of FTB was 29. Buying a house young impacts on your flexibility to move for education and jobs so is not necessarily desirable. We need a well controlled and good quality rental market for people who don't want to buy and a steady housing market so a house is just where you live, not a major financial asset.

In the last year I've seen a lot of a new category of house hunter amongst my peers:

Young (ISH) down sizers who don't want the expense or labour of the bigger older properties.

Compact bungalows are becoming hugely popular with the 30/40/50 something's I know who want rid of the bigger homes with big gardens that was the "American dream" equivalent a few years ago

I think the older people selling BIG homes think that young families want to snap them up. But they don't, they're time and money pits and the dream of moving up the ladder to bigger and bigger has burst.

People was efficient and manageable

People selling "labour of love" big houses need to be realistic that they have a limited audience now, and also that buyers are going to be realistic about just how much those original features are gonna cost em

I do feel for the people who dilly-dallied about listing a few years ago when it was a sellers market for that kinda house. They missed the boat.

@Treetopssofee definitely, I’ve seen a few properties locally that were clearly bought as projects but rate rises & renovation costs has meant they are back on the market

That does not account for the millions who will not be in a position to buy even with an inheritance, if they are not in a very well paying job.