What if there just isn't another property boom coming? Everything frozen where I am

[livelaughlambada]

I know it's not possible, but I sort of wish all house sellers would collectively agree to knock 10% (or whatever it would take) off their asking price. It feels like loads of people know their houses aren't worth what they're asking, but won't drop because the house they want won't drop either. Feels like the whole market where we are (south west) has frozen solid. Also round us, there are SO many older people trying to downsize who've been told that their houses are worth X when there just aren't that many people with X to spend! And lots of these houses have been on for a year, and in some cases you can see the deteriorations, but they just won't accept the prices have dropped. I do think it's really interesting in that the 65+ generation have seen so many booms and busts that I don't think they can process that there may not be another boom coming -- as in I just don't think there are enough 30 and 40 something with X to spend. It all just feels a bit weird right now.

Thank you, I didn’t know that.

We haven't had the bust yet, why would people be thinking a boom is the next part of the cycle?

They really need to look at SDLT rules to get the market moving.

For us to buy our exact house back we would need to pay circa £50k in tax.

I'm just not prepared to pay ANY more tax. I would far rather give that money to my children for university.

If you only paid SDLT on the additional.value that woul make a big difference and get rid of the tax altogether for downsizers.

I have just looked and here 2 beds were selling in 2018 for £150k, given inflation in the UK, theoretically that would be £200k now, or inflated with wage inflation it would be about £183k. Stuff is on at £190k and generally going for a little under I think. So ours has been basically stagnant since 2018.

Inheritance! As I said, Millennials are tipped to become the richest generation in history, and almost half of them haven’t bought a house yet! They are also the largest generation.

WTF! You were the one who replied to my post with something totally irrelevant.

Tbf I think I was stress tested to around 9% interest on a 2.4% interest rate mortgage and it doesn't assume any wage increase so in my case I think even with everything else increasing, it was pretty robust

I don't think anyone can give you a definite answer to that question as it depends on your individual circumstances.
I do expect prices to fall but it will depend on your area and what sort of property you are looking at.
If I were you, I would have a look at Fred Harrison, who describes the 18 year property cycle and MovingHomewith Charlie, who someone else mentioned. He has lots of advice, particularly useful for FTBs.

I have a lot of sceptism about those sort of comments.

I think a lot of this housing wealth will be spent on care needs for the elderly. Prices of large houses have already fallen in general are likely to fall a lot more so people may end up selling for a lot less than anticipated. Apart from that, only a minority will inherit all this 'housing wealth'. The majority of people don't have huge estates, the sort that would enable a Millennial to buy a very expensive, large property. It then usually needs to be split between 2/3/4 children or even more grandchildren.
In the aggregate, there is no chance that a small percentage of Millennials who find themselves suddenly wealthy, possibly at the grand age of 60 or so, will be buying up all the large, expensive boomer/silent properties. I see prices falling in the main over a long period due to demographics, not rising.

There is definitely a stagnation going on round us. It is a target area for new housing and around 25000 new houses have planning permission in about a 10 mile radius.

Nothing has started being built. The water pipes need upgrading, the transport infrastructure is fairly poor so there are bus services to pay for and significant road works to do, the electricity supply needs a new HV power line from the nearest power station 25 miles away. I know some of the landowners of land with planning and they’re having difficulty selling it to the house builders - there isn’t the interest.

Longer term it will probably mean a significant reduction in land prices which will gradually feed through, but the big house builders are much more reluctant to build if they can’t maintain their profits, so will reduce their activity in areas where this might be a struggle.

The parents of Gen X are starting to die and estates will be passed on.

In the aggregate, there is no chance that a small percentage of Millennials who find themselves suddenly wealthy, possibly at the grand age of 60 or so, will be buying up all the large, expensive boomer/silent properties

Im a millennial with a potential inheritance of 500k - 1m. I already have a home as do my siblings. Any inheritance I do get will not be used to upsize in my 60s.

I agree. Until nature takes it's course I don't think they'll be much movement. I know boomers who have been able to adapt their homes ready for single floor living (when needed) so they won't need care for some time. Although as they then won't be using the stairs dangerously they'll probably end up hanging on until over 100....

Exactly. I can't see many of the small minority of millennials who do inherit a lot of ££ rushing to upsize at around 60 years. They may pass some of the money to their GenZ/Y children but that would mean that the ££ gets split in even more directions so there still aren't enough wealthy people wanting large homes at current prices or higher.

We are still in our first time purchase made 9 years ago. It’s a sizeable flat in a nice part of London but the value has only reached edged up a little ultimately flats have stagnated while houses have increased in value so the jump has become too large to make the next step. We like the area, kids are happy and have decided to settle here for now we’ve given up on moving up the ladder for now and many families around us have made similars decisions. We have a decent household income we just can’t bridge the gap to move to a house. Our jobs are London centric so we can move that far out. I’ve got a friends who’s flat has been on the market 4 months and they’ve only had one viewing. I know a lot of people who can’t make that second step and the ones who do generally have wealthy families. The market is so stagnant and it’s changing how we make decisions and raise our families.

Its a slow process for a correction to work through - if people are prepared to, or can afford to stay put. Which is the situation we currently have. We are very much still at the beginning of an adjustment because of this. We would have to have another significant economic shock to speed things up. Thats obviously possible but by no means certain. We could be in this slow drift down of values for quite a long time.

As @rainingsnoring says, the answer will be very local. There is no right answer nationally - so all national stats are really just statistical guff for any one individual.

The two best local resources to help you decide for yourself are probably 1) The monthly RICS survey - what EA's are actually seeing - by region, and 2) Area360 Profile where you can quickly see how the very local market is performing on the Land Registry over the last 10 years.

Then you must decide whether prices are likely to go down (wait) or up (jump on).

https://www.rics.org/news-insights/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey

https://area360.uk

I may have said this already but what the FTBs in my wider family & workplace have been doing is future proofing as much as possible.

For many this has meant skipping the traditional first rung eg a flat.

A lot will depend on age & future plans.

I have sold a property a month ago and my bf has sold one as well. They both went within a week of going on the market. You have to get the price right. People are expecting too much and just not selling. Mine was a three bed semi and hers was a 5 bed semi.

Trying to sell a 2 bed flat in clapham and the market is dead - alrady reduced the flat by 75K to the price we paid in 2015. Agent suggestign we reduce it again by another 25K

Market is dead and we want to move but stuck in limbo

The exact house next door to me sold in 2021 for 400% more than I paid for mine in 1999. I remember thinking what madness it all was, there were three people in a bidding war for that house the developers gleefully told me.

Two houses at the other end of my road have sold in the last six months but they took much longer than normal. We want to sell in about 2 years, I’m sort of dreading it as have never sold before, my ex bought me out of our flat and DH and I went straight for this house and didn’t buy a flat or starter home. For the same jobs these days and with the same % deposit there is zero way we could buy our house.

@ClaphamSeller My mate bought a small basement flat off Clapham High street in the very early 90’s. She moved years ago but I’m pretty sure she only paid 25k for it!

Like you, I don't expect it to be quick.

We made about 200k on our flat (didn’t do anything except a lick of paint). I remember thinking these flats can’t keep increasing by 200k because there aren’t the salaries for FTBs to support them. The prices actually haven’t changed much in the last 5 yrs when I last looked.

We are very much still at the beginning of an adjustment because of this.

I agree it’s still yet to play out.

I'm in the South West and agents are still putting properties on for Covid prices. Nothing is selling. My neighbour bought his house in 2018 for £430k. He's done nothing to it and wants £600k. He won't budge as he won't 'give it away'.

I've just accepted an offer on a buy to let in Surrey. Original asking £420k, I accepted £380k. The agent there says sold prices are broadly at 2018 levels or just a bit above.

Where we are in London flats seem to have slowed right down. Very nice two bed flat (plus an extra room that can't be classified as a bedroom because it comes off another) round the corner from us is on the market for only 10% more than we sold our similar 2 bed flat, same street, 10 years ago.