What if there just isn't another property boom coming? Everything frozen where I am

[livelaughlambada]

I know it's not possible, but I sort of wish all house sellers would collectively agree to knock 10% (or whatever it would take) off their asking price. It feels like loads of people know their houses aren't worth what they're asking, but won't drop because the house they want won't drop either. Feels like the whole market where we are (south west) has frozen solid. Also round us, there are SO many older people trying to downsize who've been told that their houses are worth X when there just aren't that many people with X to spend! And lots of these houses have been on for a year, and in some cases you can see the deteriorations, but they just won't accept the prices have dropped. I do think it's really interesting in that the 65+ generation have seen so many booms and busts that I don't think they can process that there may not be another boom coming -- as in I just don't think there are enough 30 and 40 something with X to spend. It all just feels a bit weird right now.

I think with a lot of flats the prices have even dropped, not just remained static. Not all, of course, but lots. Bit of a perfect storm. Cladding, piss taking service charges that didn't used to be as bad 15 years ago, leasehold and us all living through a period where having one's own private garden space got the benefit of it throughout lockdown whilst others who relied on parks were excluded from them. Many flats do have green spaces, but the percentage is lower than houses.

am seeing this personally myself 2 bed flats not moving at all even with a garden and being in good condition - We are selling and have had to reduce price and still no buyer

Our next move is a house which will be much more desireable

We were lucky that it was a maisonette with a garden & share of freehold.

on the market for only 10% more than we sold our similar 2 bed flat, same street, 10 years ago.

And if you account for inflation?

I am also in the South West and prices by me are ridiculous. When I commented on another thread most of the responses I got were that I obviously couldn’t afford what I want in the area I’m in.
But near me some houses are on for 30-40% more than they were bought for in 2022. One house went up through the estate agent we have sold through, it was valued at £600k but vendors have insisted it goes on at £650k.
The whole thing is madness.

I suppose what I mean is that people are pricing at 2022 prices - while at the same time prices have fallen a sizeable chunk since then. But simultaneously some people think this generational shift of cash is about to flood down to Millennials. But I don't quite buy that. I think some boomer-age people are looking to jump off the merry go round, and have found merry go round has stopped at just the wrong moment for them. So their houses have been sitting there since last spring in a lot of cases while at the same time, the plankton (as someone so vividly put it) is being starved off. So the big family houses have no one to buy them already -- so that means that the idea that that same group is going to be in a position to fund the Millennials is just not plausible. That's without even factoring in care home fees - and I've noticed the boomer generation is def keen on hanging onto its cash for that. So the idea that the millennial group is going to be flooded with cash in time to fund the boomer generation stepping off the ladder is just not realistic on a macro level.

I think it will happen in the way the article I saw described it. Not everyone will get given large sums of money but enough will to keep the market from not dropping. Lots of people trying to avoid inheritance tax. Totally agree about the 2022 prices. It’s just not realistic

Nope, when you take inflation in to account, a reasonable number of homes are down quite a bit.

House prices WILL fall quite a bit. We’ve got an aging population, birth rates have been steadily falling for some time, it won’t be long until there’s far more houses than people, and you just won’t be able to sell at silly prices.
It’s ridiculous really when you look at how much someone bought the house for, sometimes they’re selling it for around twice what they paid 10 years ago. People buying now certainly will be loosing money on their properties when they or their children sell it.

The only way they are going to force people to sell up is if The Socialist Party makes it more expensive to hang onto it. Andy Burnham coming along with his new council tax hikes might just do it.

I don't know, because when that aging population dies, the next generation will have wealth, in many cases, far beyond anything they could have accumulated themselves, and that will also feed house prices.

The market will be saturated with houses, both rental and to buy. That will force prices down significantly… and there will still be lots of properties empty.

I have to wonder how many of those who do get a big inheritance will want to spend all or most of it on having a particularly expensive home. My guess is at least some people will prioritise being able to buy outright or at least have a smaller LTV, and find other uses for the money. So for example someone who inherits say 600k from their parents more expensive than average home is perhaps more likely now to, say, use 300k of it to pay off their outstanding mortgage and save/pension the rest, whereas maybe 10 years ago they'd have sunk more of the 600k into moving up the ladder.

@BrownBookshelf Any inheritance I get will not be used to move up the ladder. I would rather retire early/have a more comfortable retirement & lots of holidays!

I'm part of that age group and disagree. The market is ripe for a long overdue correction.

As an aside I have been looking at properties where my mother lives, nice coastal area. Because she is very poorly. I wpuld be a cash buyer.

As an older buyer, in an area that attracts retirees, I am shocked at the numbernof houses with no facility for andownstairs bedroom and shower. The bungalows are either decrepit probate sales or overdeveloped with too much gray, navy kitchens, poor storage and no utility rooms where one could have been fitted.

£550 to £650k in a cheapish area. The expectations are bizarre.

Mmm and I don't suppose you'll be the only one! As time passes, people getting to retirement age will increasingly be doing so with worse pension provision than the generations before. So the percentage who don't feel the extra money is available to upgrade the house will be higher than it is now. The behaviour of people inheriting large sums is probably going to be different going forward than it was in the first quarter of the century.

What I inherit will go straight to the children.

Another example here of new house building work not progressing:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgldry725xo
There is "insufficient" water supply for the number of houses planned in a Kent borough, South East Water has claimed.
Tonbridge and Malling Borough Council is currently consulting on its local plan, in which it aims to build more than 19,000 homes between 2024 and 2042.
But South East Water now says that, due to a lack of headroom in current supply plans, it cannot accommodate the level of growth being proposed.

Is there any evidence of the population level dropping dramatically though. Birth rates have gone down, but life expectancy increasing keeps the population up. It probably depends on what happens with net migration levels as well. Unless we have a population crash, people will still need houses bought or rented.
A quick Google suggests that current projections expect population Increase to continue for another 30ish years and then start a decline. Which unless it drops off a cliff at that point there will still be a need for those properties

But the figures don’t tally.
There are fewer people inheriting larger amounts of money than there are houses that are overpriced.

Anecdotally I've heard more people are doing that.

And again it makes sense. If someone is say 55-65, which is a common age to inherit, they may very well have a paid off/nearly paid off home and an ok pension. Whereas their kids might need the help to get on the ladder.

Furthermore, empty properties fall into disrepair and are at risk of becoming liabilities rather than assets.

Birth rates are dropping all over the world:
Economist Podcasts | Pregnant pause: India’s slumping fertility https://www.podbean.com/ea/dir-yapbq-2e713462
Where are the migrants going to come from if every country is running out of young people?

They're not below 2 per woman every country, if you look at the ONS website it has a projection of the UK's population. I assume that they'll have some data in there around where the migration is expected will come from. It might not be the same countries it used to be

With respect, that doesn't really make sense. There are far more expensive houses currently than there are people to buy them. Yes, some people will inherit a lot of money in the next few years/decades but a small percentage only and nowhere near enough people to buy up all the expensive property as the silents and boomers pass on. A lot of the probate/older folk's properties are at best dated, at worse in a state of disrepair and needing huge amounts of money spent on them. People are not going to buy a liability of this sort at the current prices.